Rolling Into the Future

Suppose that you never have to stand on a corner waiting for a bus.

Suppose that before you leave home, you simply check your pager-size device to find out precisely where your bus is and when it will arrive at your stop. Imagine that you never have to worry about having “exact change” because, when the bus arrives, you will pay the fare with a “smart” card.

Imagine further that, as your bus travels down the street, traffic lights automatically turn green, giving you priority over people in cars. Suppose that, as you speed toward your destination, an automated voice announces each stop, while reminding your fellow passengers--in Arnold Schwarzenegger’s menacing accent--that smoking and eating are forbidden.

This “intelligent transportation system” is not the bus system of the future. All its technological conveniences already are available and in use in various parts of the world.

Now, Los Angeles County’s Metropolitan Transportation Authority is hoping that some combination of these features will not only halt a steady decline in the number of public transit passengers, but also satisfy the federal judge who has ordered improvements in the country’s most crowded and decrepit bus system.

MTA’s daily bus ridership has dropped from a record 1.7 million boardings in the mid-1980s to under 1.1 million today. Only 4% to 5% of the county’s commuters use public transit.

The chairman of the agency’s board, Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan, believes that buses are the key to reversing that trend. So, too, do a growing number of his fellow board members, who finally have begun to come to grips with the fact that the MTA never will have enough money to build all the rail lines it has promised. In fact, the MTA board in January will consider a proposal by its acting chief, corporate turnaround specialist Julian Burke, to finish subway construction to North Hollywood but indefinitely postpone work on other rail lines.

“Everyone knows that money is tight, and the need is great, for innovative transportation solutions,” said Riordan, who recently sent a delegation to Curitiba, Brazil to tour its high-capacity busways.

The MTA also is studying construction of express bus lanes--perhaps suitable for 300-passenger accordion-like buses--along four transit corridors: across the San Fernando Valley; downtown Los Angeles to the Westside; downtown to Los Angeles International Airport; and San Pedro through downtown to Pomona. The agency is expected to decide on a project early next year. (Separately, the Southern California Assn. of Governments has proposed several new busways.)

Such bus lanes could incorporate features in use elsewhere, including the bus-loading tubes made famous in Curitiba, where passengers pay their fare before boarding, thereby speeding up loading.

“Our buses don’t travel much faster than 10 mph . . . because there is so much time involved in loading,” said Edward L. Thomas, associate administrator for research, demonstration and innovation for the Federal Transit Administration, who accompanied Los Angeles officials on the South American trip. “If you can increase the speed, you’ll probably get more riders.”

Fares Are a Key Factor

Not all ideas to boost ridership involve high technology. Denver, experimenting with news racks on buses, also is considering allowing riders to bring coffee aboard. (A Los Angeles official shuddered at the thought of coffee on the often bouncy, jam-packed MTA buses.) Washington, D.C. uses “mystery riders” to check on service. The MTA has been urging its drivers to smile more and has put “How Are We Doing?” customer comment cards on buses--like the ones found at hotels.

And not all technological innovations have been welcomed. Consider a device that greeted passengers as they boarded. “The machine would say, ‘Good morning, Mr. Smith,’ ” said Ray Rebeiro of Diamond Bar-based Echelon Industries. The public hated it, he said. “Just having the bus talk to them startled them.” Foothill Transit in the San Gabriel Valley also turned off the Muzak on its buses after riders complained.

Organizations representing Los Angeles bus riders say the best way to attract “choice” riders--transit-speak for middle-class riders--to a bus system now used mostly by people too poor to have a car is quite simple: Put more buses on the street. The MTA, bus advocates say, also needs to replace its aging fleet, one of the oldest in the nation with 40% of buses exceeding the federal recommended replacement age of 12 years old. And the agency needs to make sure buses are clean, comfortable and safe.

Price also is a key consideration, experts say, noting that Los Angeles transit use was at its highest when the fare was 50 cents. Today, the fare is $1.35. In New York City, transit ridership has increased since free transfers were introduced.

Jonathan Richmond, a transit expert at Harvard’s Kennedy School of Government, said “plain vanilla improvements in bus service” have increased ridership in other cities including Ottawa and Houston, though they also built busways.

“The lesson that is hard to learn is that it is, in fact, the least sexy approaches that are the most important ones in attracting customer loyalty to a public transit system,” Richmond said. “The most important aspect is to have a quality service that takes a reasonable amount of time and offers an attractive fare.

“If you look at the number of riders who have been lost in Los Angeles as a result of fare increases and deterioration of bus service, it becomes clear that a reversal is needed,” he added.

Robert Cervero, a professor of city planning at UC Berkeley, said expensive gadgets are not necessarily the answer. “The beauty of Curitiba is that it is not a lot of high technology,” he said. Such a system, he said, can be built much faster and more cheaply than a rail line.

Others say technological innovations can substantially speed bus travel and reduce costs, thus attracting more riders. For example, high-tech systems that give buses priority over cars at traffic signals offer a way to speed buses on city streets without taking the politically risky step of taking away lanes from automobile drivers for busways.

“If you think about the fact that the bus is getting an extended green light as needed to stay on schedule, it’s really a type of electronic high-occupancy vehicle lane using the existing roadway,” said Kim Christopher, market development manager for 3M Co.’s intelligent systems project.

Early next year, Los Angeles city officials are planning to test in the San Fernando Valley a system that extends a green light or shortens a red one. “It provides priority when it’s needed, meaning when the bus is behind schedule,” said Tom Conner, general manager of the Los Angeles Department of Transportation. The system is in use in some parts of Los Angeles County to speed fire engines through intersections.

Motorists on a side street might have to wait an additional 10 seconds, engineers say.

Convenience Is Bottom Line

Bus stops also can become more like airplane terminals, with passengers paying their fares before boarding vehicles and checking out electronic signs showing the arrival times of the buses.

“One of the reasons that people say they don’t take transit is it’s not convenient,” said Harriet Smith, advanced public transportation systems coordinator of the Intelligent Transportation Society of America. “What that means is, ‘I don’t know when the bus is coming.’ ” Technology exists to let riders know--by phone, the Internet, a hand-held device or an electronic sign at bus stops--precisely when buses will arrive.

As another way to cut the time at bus stops, some agencies are using prepaid fare cards, which are purchased in predetermined amounts like phone cards. In Phoenix, riders can pay their fare with MasterCard and Visa.

An increasing number of transit agencies are using the Global Positioning Satellite network to keep track of their buses. The system was created to help the military position troops and aim missiles, but is now used for navigation by motorists and even hikers.

The system also is used to transmit messages to electronic signs on buses. The signs, which flash street stops, are required by the Americans With Disabilities Act, but they also can be used to flash news bulletins and advertisements.

Ken Turner, a Portland, Ore. transit official who recently joined U.S. officials on a tour of technological innovations in Europe, said that satellites are used in London and Paris to transmit information to electronic signs at bus stops telling riders when the next bus will arrive.

“There was a high percentage of passengers who reported that they didn’t have to wait as long for the bus,” he said. “If you ask a person how long they wait for a bus, generally their perception is that they waited longer than they did. The big value was that they knew the bus was coming. It takes away the uncertainty.”

In Denver, Scott Reed of the Regional Transportation District said, “Ultimately, we’ll have a phone line where people will be able to dial in for a route and find out when the next bus is actually going to arrive. They can be in their cars or at home and know they can arrive at the stop a certain time without having to stand in the cold or the heat waiting.”

In Los Angeles, about half the MTA’s fleet is fitted with a decade-old bus locater system instead of satellite technology--the equivalent of putting an eight-track sound system in your car instead of a CD player.

The $24-million system was ordered about 12 years ago, but it has taken years for Los Angeles transit officials to resolve disputes with the manufacturer. Now, the agency is evaluating whether it wants to spend more money to install the older system on more buses or whether it wants to shift to the satellite technology.

The problem with the MTA system, which uses radio transmitters at street signs and bus stops, is that vehicles can only be tracked along preplanned routes equipped with the signpost transmitters. Further, according to an MTA report, the system is “maintenance intensive due to battery replacement needs, the loss of signpost transmitters due to accidents and vandalism, or route changes that cause the signposts to be relocated.”

The MTA is testing buses featuring an automated voice that announces stops, reminds riders of the rules--in celebrity voices if desired--and can deliver a commercial. “Can you imagine you’re sitting on the bus and the Terminator’s voice comes over and says, ‘Quit smoking?’ ” said Richard Hunt, MTA deputy executive officer for transit operations. “I’d certainly swallow my cigarette.”

In Ann Arbor, Mich., officials are considering using the system to tell riders, “This stop is sponsored by McDonald’s.” The announcements of stops feature a woman’s voice; the rules of good behavior feature a man’s voice.

Officials say the automated announcements can reduce confrontations between drivers and passengers.

Bruce Thomas, vice president of sales and marketing for Digital Recorders Inc., said that in a demonstration to transit executives, “I played the announcement, ‘Metro does not allow eating, drinking or smoking on their buses.’

“They said we should have had this on our buses a couple of weeks ago. One of our operators asked a customer to put out his cigarette, and the customer rolled up his newspaper and started to hit the driver on the head.”

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Rolling Into the Future * Signal Controllers: Device on approaching bus affect timing of traffic signal, holding green light longer for bus.

* Fare Cards: Fare is paid when entering bus or shelter, without depositing cash.

* Satellites: Bus positions are tracked, and information is displayed to riders waiting at stops along the route.

* New Types of Buses: Longer buses with multiple doors to speed passenger access or more fuel-efficient vehicles using lightweight materials.

* Tube shelters: Orderly queues of prepaid passengers are guided to bus.

* Information Board: Passengers can view bus schedules, location, route and arrival time of approaching buses.

A Page Away

A device now being tested in France would allow patrons to reduce long waits at bus stops by tracking the position of approaching buses.

Source: JC Decaux Co.

Lagging Ridership Spurs Calls for Change

Ridership: ’97 1,074,040 boardings

Factors in the decrease:

* A July 1985 fare increase, from 50 cents to 85 cents

* A July 1988 fare increase, from 85 cents to $1.10

* The recession from 1990-1993

* July 1994 transit strike

* A February 1995 fare increase from $1.10 to $1.35

Source: Metropolitan Transportation Authority

City by City Comparison

Here are the percentages of the working populations of various U.S. cities who commute via public transportation:

Phoenix: 2%

Dallas: 2.4%

Sacramento: 2.9%

San Diego: 3.2%

Denver: 4.1%

Miami: 4.2%

LOS ANGELES: 4.5%

Atlanta: 4.6%

Minneapolis: 5.1%

Seattle: 6%

Baltimore: 7.5%

San Francisco: 9%

Philadelphia: 9%

Boston: 10.5%

Chicago: 14%

New York City: 27%

Source: ENO Foundation