Forget the Horses, He Says Bet the Trainers

Trainer patterns can drive horseplayers to the brink. Sometimes the patterns pay off; sometimes all that’s left are the crumpled mutuel tickets. Take the first two days at Del Mar. Bob Baffert is supposed to be winning with horses here. Trainers Richard Cross, Peter Eurton and Willard Proctor aren’t.

When Baffert saddled Hot Wire, a 2-year-old colt making his debut, the betting Wednesday was expectedly heavy and the horse was an even-money favorite as he came from next-to-last to win. Baffert wins at Del Mar with horses of any age that are making their first start at the meet. In the last three seasons, he has won 19 races that way, about one winner for every five starters.

Cross, Eurton and Proctor are something else again. Cross belongs to a group of trainers who never seem to win at Del Mar. The unrelated Crosses, Richard and David, along with A.C. Avila, Lewis Cenicola, Rick Metee, Jim Buss, Frank Olivares and Proctor were a combined 0 for 107 here last year. Before Churchland’s win in a division of the Oceanside Stakes on Wednesday, at 22-1, Richard Cross hadn’t won a race at Del Mar in two years, and neither had Olivares or Proctor, who broke the ice Thursday with Super Bonus in the fourth race.

Eurton’s win with It’s All Ice, at 5-1, in the opening-day nightcap came after he had been blanked with 21 starters in 1995 and had gone two for 23 last year. Before this meet, Eurton was three for 70 the last three years at Del Mar.

All of these statistics come from Jim Mazur, a transplanted Floridian who makes regular studies of tracks such as Gulfstream Park, Saratoga, Oaklawn Park and Monmouth Park. Mazur also digs in for detailed analyses of the Breeders’ Cup and the Triple Crown series.

“At Duke, I majored in business and minored in handicapping,” Mazur said. “I’ve been a racing fan for 20 years, and I’ve lost my share of photo finishes and stewards’ inquiries. Handicappers have their own methods, but a trainer’s record is a key factor. What I suggest is that bettors use my numbers, and do their own homework as well.”

Mazur calls his system “progressive handicapping,” and his first foray at this track is called “The Del Mar Handicapper 1997 Trainer Statistics Package.” A companion publication, “Del Mar Blue Chip Trainer Angles,” has been written by Mazur and a colleague, Hank Korenvaes.

Some of the findings are familiar to even casual bettors. You don’t have be an everyday player to know that Baffert, Ron McAnally, Jenine Sahadi, Richard Mandella, David Hofmans, Bobby Frankel and Ron Ellis have won most of the stakes races here in the last three years. But Mazur, whose study covers the 1994-96 seasons, has mined some less salient nuggets that could be useful:

--A $2 flat win bet on all of Cotton Tinsley’s starters would have resulted in a net profit of $194.40. Tinsley has had only seven winners in three years, but none of them went off under 6-1 and three were 20-1 or more. (Tinsley has a horse that fits this pattern, Estrella Voladoras, running in today’s sixth race).

--Barry Abrams, Walter Greenman and Baffert have started many more horses than Tinsley, but a $2 win bet on every one of them would also have returned a net profit. Abrams’ 16 winners here since 1995 would have produced a profit of $85.

--Besides Baffert, David Bernstein, Jack Carava, Mike Mitchell and John Sadler have been effective winning with horses making their first starts at the meet. Carava and Mitchell, who has won 36 races to take the last two training titles, have won with about one of every four horses making their meet debuts.

--Doug Peterson, on the other hand, wins a high percentage of races--he’s batting .233 the last two years--but in three years all the winning horses except one have needed a race over the track before they’ve won.

--Jack Van Berg and Warren Stute won with almost 60% of their horses when they went off 5-2 or less. Eduardo Inda was almost as good. At the other end, Mitchell and Sandy Shulman had trouble winning with longshots. Shulman, who won 11 races in three years, won with only 7% of his starters and he was 0 for 90 with horses that were 6-1 or more.

--Jerry Hollendorfer, undisputed king of Northern California racing, had trouble winning, saddling only three winners of 42 starters.

--Paco Gonzalez, who didn’t win a race at Del Mar in 1994, won 10 the next two years. Another trainer in the most-improved category was Peterson, who is 10 for 42 the last two years after going 0 for 15 in 1994. By contrast, Bill Spawr, who saddled 19 winners to win the training title in 1994, has won only 11 races combined the last two years. Spawr saddled a winner Thursday.

--Wayne Lukas, six for 14 with horses at 5-2 or less, was six for 80 with the rest. Eight of Lukas’ 12 winners were in maiden races; he failed to win an allowance race, saddling 15 starters.

Baffert won another race Thursday, and the claiming filly paid $5.80. It’s going to be that kind of a season betting his horses. As the sign in the track kitchen at Belmont Park used to say, “It’s all right to eat your betting money, but don’t bet your eating money.”

DOWN THE STRETCH

Pat Valenzuela, who hasn’t ridden since October, has had a lapsed license renewed by the California Horse Racing Board and is scheduled to begin exercising horses at Del Mar this weekend. Valenzuela pleaded not guilty to two charges--being under the influence of a controlled substance and vandalism--in Monrovia and the charges were dismissed after he underwent 50 hours of counseling. . . . The first stewards’ suspension of the meet will keep jockey Alex Solis on the ground for three days, starting Wednesday. Solis’ second-race mount on opening day was disqualified from fourth to eighth place.