Term Limits Put Bustamante at a Turning Point

Assembly Speaker Cruz Bustamante is fast approaching one of those tough career decisions. Suddenly he again is facing the possibility of term limits. What to do? His poll numbers show promise, and Latino voting power is growing. Why not run for lieutenant governor?

“Light governor,” as the Capitol pols call it. Bustamante is seriously pondering the idea.

The 44-year-old Fresno Democrat became the first Latino speaker in California history last December. He could be the first Latino lieutenant governor of both the 20th and 21st centuries--but not the first in state history.

That distinction belongs to Romualdo Pacheco, a San Luis Obispo County rancher and Republican state senator who was born in California when it was ruled by Mexico. Pacheco was elected lieutenant governor in 1871 and later ascended to the governorship to briefly fill a vacancy.

No Latino has been elected to statewide office since that time 126 years ago. Democratic state Sen. Art Torres tried in 1994, but it was a Republican year and Proposition 187 was on the ballot. “The turnout for 187 just killed me,” says Torres, who lost his race for insurance commissioner by a 5.4% margin.

Torres, now the state Democratic chairman, has been urging Bustamante to run for lieutenant governor if term limits are upheld by a federal court.

“He’d come out of the starting blocks with a good amount of dough in the bank,” Torres notes. “He has good name ID. He’s from the Central Valley, which is the key to a statewide race. There are no other viable [Democratic] candidates. He’s young, he could play apprentice for two terms and then be in good position to run for governor.

“In politics, timing is everything. The time is excellent now for Cruz.”

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Bustamante had been thinking about running for lieutenant governor before a three-judge federal panel ruled last month that legislative term limits are invalid because Californians didn’t understand what they were voting on when they approved a 1990 initiative. At that point, the speaker figured he’d run for reelection next year.

But on Tuesday, the full U.S. 9th Circuit Court of Appeals decided it had better take a close look at this dubious ruling about voter ignorance. It will on Nov. 20, but there is no indication when a decision will be handed down. Even after that, there’s certain to be an appeal to the U.S. Supreme Court.

That’s about the only thing certain, however.

“This is a very confusing period in California politics,” notes another potential candidate for lieutenant governor, Republican Assemblyman Charles Poochigian, also from Fresno. He’s contemplating the race, now that Assemblyman Brooks Firestone (R-Los Olivos) has all but decided to abandon his bid for lieutenant governor and run for Congress.

As term limits now stand, the leaders of both legislative houses will be “termed out” next year. Senate President Pro Tem Bill Lockyer (D-Hayward) has been warming up for an attorney general’s race. But Bustamante--the capital’s highest-ranking Latino--has done nothing to prepare for his next career move. Races for the state Senate or U.S. House are out because he’d have to challenge Democratic incumbents.

“I think he runs for lieutenant governor if term limits stay,” says veteran consultant Richie Ross, Bustamante’s chief political advisor.

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Bustamante’s assets for a statewide race include his centrist politics; he’s for the death penalty, abortion rights, gun control and tax cuts. He also has a fat campaign kitty--”$1.6 million CIF,” says Ross. “Cash in fist.”

A recent private poll found that although 62% of California voters had no opinion of the speaker, among those who did it was 2 to 1 favorable. Opinions about other legislative leaders were evenly divided.

Then there’s the ethnic factor. Ross believes Bustamante’s moderation--in personality as well as politics--can overcome lingering bigotry while also exciting Latino voters.

The consultant has just completed a computer study of Latino voting in the 1990s. Based on that, he projects a 616,000-vote “Latino bump” for statewide Democratic candidates next year.

Ross found that the Latino voting rate is rising significantly. But his most interesting discovery was that the newest Latino voter registrants-- who tend to be new citizens--are voting at a higher rate than Californians as a whole. He credits Latino anxiety over Proposition 187, aimed at cutting off services for illegal immigrants. “Something big has happened,” he says.

Regardless of term limits, Bustamante should consider the history and the opportunity and probably run for higher office. These days, the speakership isn’t all that great a job anyway.