Waffling Won’t Work

The most effective step that can be taken now to convince Iraq that it faces certain punishment if it continues to defy the United Nations would be for China, France and Russia to state unambiguously that they are ready to join other Security Council members in approving the use of force to compel Baghdad’s compliance with U.N. resolutions.

If Saddam Hussein sees that these three waverers are now firmly aligned with the United States and Britain in supporting military means if need be to enforce the council’s will, he is likely to conclude that he has played out his hand and must end his obstructionism. But if he continues to sense ambivalence and waffling where resolute unanimity is required, he is sure to be emboldened to go on interfering with the U.N. inspection teams that are trying to uncover and stop Iraq’s efforts to make chemical and biological weapons.

The latest report to the council by Richard Butler, the Australian diplomat who heads the weapons inspection mission, should resolve any doubts about what Hussein is up to. To try to prevent Iraq from cheating on the U.N. mandate that demands it shut down all of its nuclear, chemical and biological weapons programs, international inspectors installed surveillance cameras and other remote monitoring equipment in dozens of facilities. Butler has now told the council that some cameras have been tampered with and that some of the sensitive equipment they were monitoring has been moved and hidden. Much of that equipment is dual-use, suitable for peaceful as well as military purposes. It would take only a few hours, Butler told the council, to adopt some of this specialized equipment “to produce seed stock of biological warfare agents.”

On Monday the Security Council is to be briefed by the three envoys U.N. Secretary-General Kofi Annan sent this week to talk with the Iraqis. So far the envoys have reported that their meetings have been cordial, a diplomatic way of saying they have not been very productive.

Meanwhile, U.N. inspectors continue to be prevented from doing their work because Iraq refuses to let American members of the team participate. The inspectors believe Iraq is hiding a revived ability to produce terror weapons. Next week it will be up to the council to respond appropriately. If internal divisions stand in the way of taking prompt and effective measures, the United States and Britain may well have to act on their own.