Commutes Will Get Worse, Study Says

Southern California motorists face longer commutes and within 20 years will spend half their drive time stuck in traffic, according to a study presented Thursday by the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

The grim predictions came as the organization released details of a regional transportation plan that calls for the construction of busways, commuter rail lines and freeway toll lanes designed to ease the expected traffic crunch.

The study says the six counties that make up the association--Los Angeles, Orange, Ventura, Riverside, San Bernardino and Imperial--will experience a net gain of 6.7 million residents, bringing the total population to 22 million by 2020. Most of the new residents are expected to live in western Riverside and San Bernardino counties and in north Los Angeles and south Orange counties.

“It’s like having two cities the size of Chicago coming here within the next 26 years,” said James Gosnell, director of planning for the government association. “Without making adjustments, we will see significant increases in the amount of time it takes to travel.”

Employment is expected to grow 61% by 2020. But many of the new jobs will be some distance from fast-growing residential communities, forcing workers into longer commutes, according to the regional transportation planners.

A commute between Chino and downtown Los Angeles now takes about 45 minutes in the morning and 68 minutes in the afternoon. By 2020, according to the report, the commute will be about 78 minutes each way.

Not only will the daily drive to work take longer, but commuters will spend more time stuck in heavy traffic, planners said. In 1995, drivers spent about one-eighth of their commute tied up in heavy traffic, the study says, adding that by 2020, traffic tie-ups will account for about half the average commute.

To help reduce predicted congestion, the association suggested that local transportation agencies add toll lanes to existing freeways, expand major surface streets to accommodate bus lanes and pour $3 billion into maintenance of the region’s highway network over the next 20 years.

The report also called on transit agencies to create a network of “smart shuttles”--small buses that would transport commuters between major business districts and transportation centers across the region.

The construction of lanes exclusively for buses on major streets would improve traffic flow for passenger vehicles as well as speed up transit service, the study says.

The association is also studying the idea of toll lanes for trucks on portions of the Long Beach, Santa Ana and Pomona freeways. Officials also said a private firm could build and operate a high-speed rail line running from Palmdale, through downtown and east to Riverside.

Traffic flow would be improved by adding “hot lanes” to some existing highways, including the Antelope Valley Freeway and Interstate 15, the study says. “Hot lanes” allow carpoolers to ride for free but charge a toll for single-occupant vehicles.

At the association meeting Thursday, Robert Garcia, a senior attorney with the Environmental Defense Fund, expressed concern about the equity of toll lanes, noting that many poor people probably couldn’t afford to use them.

But he said a toll road system might be acceptable if some of the revenues went to pay for the construction of busways and the purchase of new buses that serve lower-income commuters.

Ron Bates, a member of the government association’s board and a Los Alamitos city councilman, described many of the group’s recommendations as a “low-tech approach” to traffic problems. “We found these kinds of solutions to be the most cost-effective and the most friendly to the users,” Bates said.

The association estimates that the region will spend $80.1 billion through 2020 on various transportation projects. Of that, $61.8 billion is already earmarked for specific projects, leaving $18.3 billion available for some of the ideas suggested by the group.

The full regional transportation plan is scheduled to be released Nov. 9. Several public workshops, hearings and other educational events will take place through March. The association’s regional council is scheduled to vote on the plan April 2.

Association officials said the final report will include three yet-to-be-completed subway lines planned by the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, even though full funding of them has not been approved.