Buckeyes Loaded for Bear . . . or at Least Wolverine

If not now, Ohio State, when?

The Buckeyes might never be in a better position to win their first national title since 1968, exorcise the Michigan demon and live up to their own lofty expectations.

While it surprised some that the Buckeyes’ fish-hatchery stocked talent pool failed to find a hook in April’s NFL draft, the simple explanation is that the top Ohio State players were non-seniors who are returning this year for one last push toward the mountaintop.

This fact was not lost on the keen minds of poll-casting coaches and writers, both voting bodies having picked Ohio State as No. 1 before first kickoff.

Big Ten writers also picked the Buckeyes ahead of Michigan, defending co-national champions.

“I guess they look at us and say, ‘They didn’t lose a lot, and the ones they lost didn’t get drafted,’ ” Buckeye Coach John Cooper said at the conference’s media day in Chicago.

In Columbus, it’s addition by subtraction.

After two years of a successful-but-curious quarterback platoon strategy with Joe Germaine and Stanley Jackson, the job now is Germaine’s alone.

Give Germaine credit for holding his tongue. He dutifully came off the bench for two years, despite winning MVP honors at the 1997 Rose Bowl.

“We won a lot of games doing it, that’s why we kept doing it,” Germaine said of the platoon system.

The Buckeyes might also be better at tailback, Pepe Pearson’s departure meaning more carries for speedy junior Michael Wiley, who averaged 5.6 yards a carry as Pearson’s backup.

The receiving duo of David Boston and Dee Miller is NFL-ready, having combined for 131 catches and 1,951 yards in 1997.

Linebacker Andy Katzenmoyer, last year’s Butkus Award winner, had to pass three summer school classes to remain eligible--gee, what are the chances of that?--making him one of nine returning starters from a top-shelf defensive unit.

With Charles Woodson no longer at Michigan, Ohio State’s Antoine Winfield emerges as the the conference’s top cornerback. Winfield had more tackles than Katzenmoyer last year and is one of the most tenacious cover men in the country.

All this means nothing, of course, if Ohio State can’t beat Michigan. And if the Buckeyes don’t win the national title, the Wolverines might.

Michigan returns nine starters from the nation’s top defense, can pick from any number of all-world tailbacks to attack opposing defenses, and needs only solid play from new quarterback Tom Brady, who replaces Brian Griese.

The race for the national title might well be decided Nov. 21, when Michigan and Ohio State meet in Columbus.

History has been cruel to Cooper in this series. The Ohio State coach is 1-8-1 against Michigan and seems at times almost paralyzed by this challenge.

The Wolverines hold a significant psychological advantage in this rivalry.

Marcus Ray, who left Ohio to become a premier safety at Michigan, is one Wolverine who is always willing to fan flames.

Ray recently spoke of a trip home to Columbus.

“The Buckeyes were all yapping about being No. 1,” Ray said. “I just looked at my [national title] ring. I’m glad they’re No. 1. Let it stay that way until Nov. 21.”

The Big Ten, in predicted order of finish:

Ohio State

* Coach: John Cooper (11th year).

* 1997 record: 10-3, 6-2 in Big Ten.

* The case for: Buckeyes have more returning talent than any team in the country, David Boston might be the country’s best receiver, Andy Katzenmoyer is the nation’s best linebacker, Ohio State plays Michigan at home.

* The case against: Cooper can’t win a national title until he figures out a way to beat Michigan.

* If it all breaks right: Ohio State defeats Michigan to go 11-0, advances to national title game in Tempe, Ariz., and wins first national title in 30 years.

* Worst-case scenario: Buckeyes can’t handle being the preseason No. 1, lose a tough opener at West Virginia, choke another one away against Michigan and settle for the Citrus Bowl.

Michigan

* Coach: Lloyd Carr (fourth year).

* 1997 record: 12-0, 8-0.

* The case for: Nine returning starters from the nation’s best defense, a truckload of running backs led by Anthony Thomas, a coach who can focus like the Hubbell telescope.

* The case against: Charles Woodson, last year’s Heisman Trophy winner, is not among those nine returning defensive starters, Brian Griese’s leadership at quarterback will be difficult to replace.

* If it all breaks right: Michigan runs over Notre Dame on Sept. 5 and jumps on the fast track for a national title repeat.

* Worst-case scenario: Team lacks hunger after last year’s championship, Tom Brady can’t adequately replace Griese, Wolverines lose a few close games in which Woodson would have made the difference.

Penn State

* Coach: Joe Paterno (33rd year).

* 1997 record: 9-3, 6-2.

* The case for: Paterno remains one of the best coaches in America, the Nittany Lions were overrated last season and still managed a seventh consecutive New Year’s Day Bowl game.

* The case against: Penn State opens with a tough home game against sleeper Southern Mississippi, the defense finished 10th in the Big Ten last year in yards allowed, the offense is breaking in a new quarterback, tailback and wide receiver.

* If it all breaks right: Paterno wins his 300th on Sept. 12 against Bowling Green in Happy Valley, fullback Aaron Harris returns from torn knee ligaments, middle linebacker Brandon Short wins the Butkus Award, rumors of Penn State’s demise are quieted.

* Worst-case scenario: School fields the same “defense” that last year gave up 452 rushing yards to Michigan State, Penn State gets hammered at Ohio State on Oct. 3, Paterno discovers a gray hair.

Wisconsin

* Coach: Barry Alvarez (8th year).

* 1997 record: 8-5, 5-3.

* The case for: Sweetheart nonconference schedule, Ron Dayne didn’t turn pro, offensive linemen average 300 pounds, 19 returning starters, Wisconsin plays Ohio this year but not Ohio State, defensive line one of conference’s best.

* The case against: Dayne might be injury prone, Mike Samuel throws too many interceptions, Badgers finished last in pass offense in ‘97, defense is a step slow, last year defeated only one team with a winning record.

* If it all breaks right: Dayne avoids injury, Badgers are 9-0 headed into Nov. 14 showdown at Michigan.

* Worst-case scenario: Wisconsin blows one of three easy nonconference chances, 370-pound offensive tackle Aaron Gibson opts for sumo career.

Michigan State

* Coach: Nick Saban (4th year).

* 1997 record: 7-5, 4-4.

* The case for: Tailback Sedrick Irvin is back, Saban didn’t turn pro, one of the best defensive lines in the country, strength of schedule should help in new bowl formula.

* The case against: The schedule--opening with Colorado State, Oregon, Notre Dame and Michigan--is tougher than jerky, Saban’s NFL overtures are an annual distraction, four new assistants to break in, history of fading when it counts.

* If it all breaks right: Michigan State jumps into national contention with a stunning 4-0 start, 6-6 receiver Plaxico Burress reminds people of Randy Moss, Spartans sort out the quarterback position.

* Worst-case scenario: September is a bust, Spartans can’t patch together an offensive line, more assistants flee, Saban heard whistling NFL theme music.

Purdue

* Coach: Joe Tiller (second year).

* 1997 record: 9-3, 6-2.

* The case for: Tiller’s basketball-on-grass style pumped life into a plodding conference, contract extension keeps Tiller in town until 2003, new quarterback Drew Brees has never lost as a starter (28-0-1 record in high school), Boilermakers miss Ohio State and Michigan on schedule.

* The case against: School must replace its star quarterback, receiver and three linemen, last year might have been a fluke, must play at USC and Notre Dame, defense gave up 404 yards per game in ’97.

* If it all breaks right: Tiller jump-starts the year with a win at USC on Sunday, Brees makes fans forget Billy Dicken, Purdue has consecutive winning seasons for first time since ‘79-80.

* Worst-case scenario: This year’s Rice becomes last year’s Toledo, Brees realizes he’s not in high school anymore, Notre Dame exacts a savage revenge.

Northwestern

* Coach: Gary Barnett (seventh year).

* 1997 record: 5-7, 3-5.

* The case for: Barnett turned down the Texas job and now swears he’s going to honor his 12-year contract, receiver D’Wayne Bates returns after sitting out last year because of a broken leg, last year’s recruiting class starts to pay dividends.

* The case against: The quarterback situation is shaky, the team lost fullback Matt Hartl to career-ending illness, the offensive line lost three starters, the Wildcats’ run defense is a concern.

* If it all breaks right: Northwestern opens 3-0 with nonconference victories against Nevada Las Vegas, Duke and Rice, the Wildcats keep games close enough for star kicker Brian Gowins to win, a quarterback emerges from nowhere.

* Worst-case scenario: Bates isn’t what he was, the Wildcats lose early to another ACC team they should beat (remember Wake Forest?), the squad gets buried with seven of eight games against Big Ten teams that went to bowl games last year.

Iowa

* Coach: Hayden Fry (20th year).

* 1997 record: 7-5, 4-4.

* The case for: Fry is pushing 70 but aging like fine Iowa corn whiskey, three starters return on the offensive line, the team loses nothing with quarterback Randy Reiners replacing Matt Sherman, defensive lineman Jared DeVries spurns pros, Iowa opens with guaranteed wins against Central Michigan and Iowa State.

* The case against: You don’t lose tailback Tavian Banks and receiver Tim Dwight and expect to compete for the conference title, school hasn’t been to the Rose Bowl since the ’90 season, the secondary is raw.

* If it all breaks right: Iowa is 4-0 before hosting Michigan on Oct. 3, Reiners is better than advertised, the Hawkeyes shock Ohio State at Iowa City on Nov. 14.

* Worst-case scenario: Fry begins to show his age, Iowa loses a game it shouldn’t, players get booed in blowout home losses to Michigan and Ohio State, the Sun Bowl beckons, boosters call for Fry’s head.

Indiana

* Coach: Cam Cameron (second year).

* 1997 record: 2-9, 1-7.

* The case for: Cameron, a former IU quarterback, came recommended by Bobby Knight, the first-year coaching jitters are history, freshman quarterback Antwaan Rankle-El is highly touted, 14 returning starters.

* The case against: Cameron came recommended by Knight, Cameron’s squad did not score a touchdown in October last year, and might not again this October with a four-game stretch versus Michigan State, Iowa, Michigan and Ohio State.

* If it all breaks right: Indiana goes 2-1 in nonconference, beats Minnesota at home and Illinois on the road to double last year’s victory total.

* Worst-case scenario: Indiana blows home opener against Western Michigan, gets pasted on the road by Kentucky and Cincinnati.

Minnesota

* Coach: Glen Mason (second year).

* 1997 record: 3-9, 1-7.

* The case for: Mason turned Kansas into a winner and is the right man for this job, his first recruiting class was solid, the Gophers lost three games by a total of four points in ’97.

* The case against: The schedule is brutal with seven games against bowl teams, Minnesota hasn’t had a winning season since 1990, the offense produced a whopping two field goals in late-season losses to Iowa, Ohio State and Michigan.

* If it all breaks right: Minnesota opens 3-0 against Arkansas State, Houston and Memphis to buttress a Big Ten gantlet beginning at Purdue on Oct. 3

* Worst-case scenario: Gophers are 0-9 entering a “must-win” thrilling matchup at Indiana on Nov. 14

Illinois

* Coach: Ron Turner (second year).

* 1997 record: 0-11, 0-8.

* The case for: Illini is still not as bad as Prairie View, team doesn’t have to deal with Ryan Leaf in season opener at Washington State, brilliant move scheduling Middle Tennessee State.

* The case against: School has lost 17 consecutive games, former NFL offensive whiz Turner thus far has not been the answer, the team’s top weapon, running back Robert Holcombe, is gone.

* If it all breaks right: The streak ends at 18 with a win over Middle Tennessee State on Sept. 12, the Illini also beat Louisville and Indiana to finish 3-8.

* Worst-case scenario: “Repeat, repeat,” in Champaign means another 0-11 campaign.

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Big Ten At A Glance

TOP RETURNING RUSHERS

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Player, Team G Car Yds Avg TD YPG Ron Dayne, Wis. 10 249 1,421 5.7 15 142.1 Sedrick Irvin, MS 11 231 1,211 5.2 9 110.1

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TOP RETURNING PASSERS

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Player, Team Att Cmp Pct Int TD Yds Pts Joe Germaine, OS 184 119 .647 7 15 1,674 160.4 Randy Reiners, Iowa 95 50 .526 4 11 837 156.4

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TOP RETURNING RECEIVERS

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Player, Team G Rec Yds TD YPG David Boston, OS 12 70 930 14 77.5 Dee Miller, OS 12 52 902 5 75.2

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TOTAL OFFENSE

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Player, Team G Yds YPG Jay Rodgers, Ind. 11 2,035 185.0 Mike Samuel, Wis. 12 2,055 171.5

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PUNTING

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Player, Team P Avg Brent Bartholomew, OS 65 45.1 Kevin Stemke, Wis. 49 44.0

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KICKOFF RETURNS

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Player, Team Ret Yds Avg Tyrone Carter, Min 17 455 26.8 Chris Eberly, PS 22 530 24.1

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PUNT RETURNS

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Player, Team Ret Yds Avg Sedrick Irvin, MS 20 263 13.2 Gari Scott, MS 14 140 10.0

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1997 Standings

Last year’s record and returning starters (offensive-defensive)

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Team (Record) O D Ohio State (10-3) 8 9 Michigan (12-0) 6 9 Wisconsin (8-5) 9 8 Michigan State (7-5) 5 9 Penn State (9-3) 6 5 Purdue (9-3) 4 7 Iowa (7-5) 5 6 Northwestern (5-7) 5 7 Indiana (2-9) 7 6 Minnesota (3-9) 6 8 Illinois (0-11) 7 9

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