BCS: Bowl Conspiracy Syndrome

There’s something happening here.

What it is ain’t exactly clear.

Stephen Stills couldn’t have known there would be a bowl championship series when he penned those lyrics, but they’re humming his tune today in Knoxville.

Tennessee whacks Vanderbilt, 41-0, then gets taken to the BCS woodshed because of it?

Someone alert the computer police.

In the strangest twist yet in the six-week life of the bowl championship series rankings, the byte fight for No. 2 between UCLA and Kansas State gave way Monday to concern for Tennessee’s BCS health.

Despite a resounding victory Saturday, the Volunteers’ hold on the No. 1 BCS spot has become perilous.

In the latest rankings, Tennessee remains first at 4.99, but leads No. 2 UCLA, at 5.03, by only four-hundredths of a computer point. Kansas State held firm at No. 3 with 6.31.

Tennessee’s big mistake was playing a turkey over Thanksgiving weekend.

Talk about a drag.

Turns out just playing crummy Vanderbilt cost Tennessee valuable spots in the BCS strength of schedule component.

Reaction?

“Our focus is on Mississippi State,” Tennessee Coach Phil Fulmer said Monday when informed of his school’s slide in the BCS. “We have to go out and play our best to win. I was told our strength of schedule would be in our favor. It’s up to us now to go out and win. If we do that, all that is irrelevant anyway.”

The status of UCLA and Kansas State--both schools had the weekend off--remained relatively unchanged. Kansas State checked in with the same total it had last week. UCLA improved its position in strength of schedule by one position, from No. 8 to No. 7, allowing it to tack .04 on to last week’s 1.24 lead over Kansas State.

UCLA received a helpful BCS nudge from Pacific 10 Conference foes Arizona and USC, which scored weekend victories over Arizona State and Notre Dame, respectively, opponents UCLA did not play.

Tennessee, conversely, took a beating by beating 2-9 Vanderbilt, and also took a computer hit from Georgia’s loss to Georgia Tech.

Tennessee’s BCS rating average of 1.5 and computer ranking of 2.33 did not change from last week. But the Volunteers dropped from 14th to 29th in the strength of schedule component.

Monday’s BCS rankings only heighten the interest before Saturday’s high-stakes tripleheader.

At St. Louis, Kansas State (11-0) meets Texas A&M; (10-2) in the Big 12 championship game.

In Florida, Miami (8-3) plays host to UCLA (10-0) in a makeup of the Sept. 26 game wiped out by Hurricane Georges.

At Atlanta, Tennessee (11-0) and Mississippi State (8-3) play in the Southeastern Conference title game.

Only 1.32 BCS points separate No. 1 Tennessee and No. 3 Kansas State, yet only the top two schools in next Sunday’s final BCS standings will play in the Fiesta Bowl Jan. 4.

If all three schools win, Kansas State figures to make up the most ground in strength of schedule because the Wildcats will have beaten No. 8 Texas A&M.;

Yet, the Wildcats also have the most ground to make up.

Tennessee should be able to hold onto a top BCS spot with a victory over Mississippi State, but who knows?

UCLA should be in good shape if the Bruins defeat the Hurricanes.

But who can tell?

There are too many variables to make take-it-to-the-bank predictions.

Conspiracy theorists should take note. The slightest fluctuation in the Associated Press writers’ or ESPNUSA Today coaches’ polls, or in the three participating computer rankings, could shift the balance of power.

In the AP poll, for example, No. 1 Tennessee leads No. 2 Kansas State by only 30 points.

Yet, incredibly, two of the 70 voting writers did not turn in their ballots this week.

Not that any of this is important.

The race in the coaches’ poll is even tighter. No. 2 Tennessee closed to within three points of No. 1 Kansas State.

Should Tennessee pass Kansas State next week in the coaches’ poll, UCLA picks up half a point in the BCS computer and, more important, the coaches will be off the hook for the potential embarrassment of having their No. 1 team not being able to play in the Fiesta Bowl.

Gee, you say, how could Kansas State get passed in the coaches’ poll if the Wildcats win Saturday?

Last year, the coaches awarded Nebraska its share of the national title even though Michigan, the coaches’ No. 1 team before the bowls, defeated Washington State in the Rose Bowl.

Never underestimate the manipulation factor.

This week, UCLA lost a No. 1 vote in the coaches’ poll and Kansas State gained one, even though neither school played and three schools UCLA has already defeated--Arizona, USC and Texas--all won.

Say what?

In a BCS race that may come down to decimal points, that sort of suspicious maneuvering may ultimately determine who wears the crown.

The coaches refuse to make their votes public, so we’ll never know if the coach who took a No. 1 vote away from UCLA may have had an ax to grind.

And while math whiz Jeff Sagarin is assuredly an upstanding fellow, who is fact-checking his numbers? He still maintains that Kansas State will make the Fiesta Bowl if it wins Saturday.

Why shouldn’t he sell that concept? Kansas State is No. 1 in his computer.

Now, what if UCLA beats Miami Saturday but falls from No. 2 to No. 4 in Sagarin’s computer, and that becomes the margin that pushes Kansas State past UCLA in the BCS rankings?

Well?

Well, maybe Oliver Stone takes over from there.

Bowl Championship Series Rankings

Through Nov. 29

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Team AP USA-ESPN Poll.Avg S-T Sagarin NYTimes 1. Tennessee 1 2 1.5 2 3 2 2. UCLA 3 3 3.0 1 2 (2.25) 3. Kansas St. 2 1 1.5 3 1 3 4. Florida St. 4 4 4.0 4 4 1 5. Ohio St. 5 5 5.0 6 5 5 6. Arizona 6 6 6.0 5 6 7 7. Florida 7 7 7.0 10 9 10 8. Texas A&M; 10 10 10.0 7 8 8 9. Wisconsin 8 8 8.0 9 10 9 10. Tulane 9 9 9.0 8 16 (18) 11. Nebraska 13 17 15.0 11 7 (13.5) 12. Georgia Tech 12 14 13.0 17 20 10 13. Arkansas 11 11 11.0 18 15 21 14. Virginia 14 12 13.0 14 19 17 15. Syracuse 18 18 18.0 (17.25) 17 6

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Team AP Com.Avg SkedStr QtrRnk L Total 1. Tennessee 1 2.33 29 1.16 0 4.99 2. UCLA 3 1.75 7 0.28 0 5.03 3. Kansas St. 2 2.33 62 2.48 0 6.31 4. Florida St. 4 3.00 5 0.20 1 8.20 5. Ohio St. 5 5.33 25 1.00 1 12.33 6. Arizona 6 6.00 54 2.16 1 15.16 7. Florida 7 9.67 28 1.12 2 19.79 8. Texas A&M; 10 7.67 13 0.52 2 20.19 9. Wisconsin 8 9.33 63 2.52 1 20.85 10. Tulane 9 14.00 97 3.88 0 26.88 11. Nebraska 13 10.50 14 0.56 3 29.06 12. Georgia Tech 12 15.67 44 1.76 2 32.43 13. Arkansas 11 18.00 59 2.36 2 33.36 14. Virginia 14 16.67 43 1.72 2 33.39 15. Syracuse 18 13.42 31 1.24 3 35.66

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Explanation Key

Poll Average--The average of The Associated Press media poll and USA Today-ESPN coaches poll. Others receiving votes are calculated in order received.

Computer Average--The average of The Hester & Anderson/Seattle Times, Jeff Sagarin’s rankings and New York Times rankings. In order to prevent differences in individual formulas, a maximum adjusted deviation of no greater than 50 percent of the average of the two lowest computer rankings is utilized.

Quartile Rank--Rank of schedule strength compared to other Division I-A teams divided by 25. This component is calculated by determining the cumulative won/loss records of the team’s opponent (66.6 percent) and the cumulative won/loss records of the team’s opponents opponents (33.3 percent).

Losses--One point for each loss during the season.

Notes--BCS rankings each week will list the top 15 or down to the lowest-ranked BCS-affiliated conference leader. Adjusted computer scores in parentheses (Seattle Times raw scores: Syracuse 27. New York Times’ raw scores: UCLA 4; Tulane 22; Nebraska 15).