Contentment Creates ‘Classic’ Governor’s Race

In the end, it came down to a very simple fact: Voters were fairly content. They wanted stability, maybe even a little stolidity. You might take that snazzy convertible for a spin or two around the block, but when it comes right down to it, the comfortable sedan fits the bill just fine.

So it is that Gray Davis and Dan Lungren, two models of political stability, two old sedans in a race for so long defined by the exotic new models, find themselves in November’s contest for governor. It will pit two evenly matched candidates--each with the experience that voters yearn for, each with definitive attractions for the electorate.

In Davis, Democrats have a man who commands the year’s biggest issue, education, over Lungren. In Lungren, Republicans have a man who trumps Davis on the more ephemeral notions of leadership and honesty.

Both have strong support within their party. Both have run, and won, statewide races before. Lungren comes out of the June primary with money in the bank. Davis comes out with the momentum of a convincing winner.

“This is a classic contest, of a traditional Democrat versus a traditional Republican,” said political analyst Sherry Bebitch Jeffe.

If California history is any predictor, it could also be a nail-biter. In each of the recent governor’s races in which an incumbent was leaving office, the margin of victory was less than four percentage points.

Political analysts parsing Tuesday night’s returns--and a Times poll of voters exiting their polling places--suggest that the state’s voters were risk-averse this year. Two-thirds said the state is on the right track--traditionally a positive barometer for incumbents or political insiders.

In every race they could, they turned aside free-spending political novices to side with political veterans--the sort of veterans who in years past were definitely passe.

“The career politician: Everyone thinks that’s a negative,” said Susan Pinkus, director of the Los Angeles Times Poll. “But in this race, it turned out to be a positive, for Davis, for Lungren and for Fong.”

And money, at least the sort that flew freely around California’s political airwaves this year, turned out to be a negative.

Experience Over Money

Three millionaires, each little known in political circles when the races began, were thumped by more seasoned politicians. Democrat Al Checchi spent $40 million, more money than has been spent in American history for a nonpresidential race, and came in a distant second to Davis in the governor’s race.

Republican Darrell Issa plunked millions into a race against state Treasurer Matt Fong for the nomination to run against Democratic U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer--and he lost, 22%-20%. Noel Irwin Hentschel, a Los Angeles businesswoman, came in second among Republican candidates for lieutenant governor, losing to state Sen. Tim Leslie by a margin of 16%-13%.

Another millionaire, Democrat Jane Harman, came in third in the governor’s race, with 12.3% to Checchi’s 12.6% and Davis’ 34.8%. She spent far less than Checchi and, unlike him, could point to two decades in the political vineyards.

The only wealthy candidate who won was Democratic state treasurer candidate Phil Angelides--who is better known for his former chairmanship of the state party.

Risk Avoidance

The returns were not surprising to Republican consultant Sal Russo, who has complied a list of failed candidates who either campaigned on their business expertise or used personal millions to finance their efforts. By his count, Checchi, Harman and Issa bring to 17 the number of unsuccessful millionaires who have run for California governor or U.S. senator.

This year, he said, millionaires came to represent risk in the minds of voters.

“The economy is good,” he said. “Voters don’t want anybody who is going to go out and be risky. What they see with Al Checchi and Darrell Issa is risk. They are much more confident with Gray Davis, Matt Fong and Dan Lungren. This is very much a year that helps incumbents.”

Looking forward to the general election, however, the very issues that helped elect Davis and the others will be at least partly nullified.

At the polls Tuesday, the biggest reason voters gave for their selection was “experience,” which 38% cited as a major contributor to their decision. Of those voters, 55% sided with Davis, and only 6% with Harman and 5% with Checchi.

But 33% said they voted for Lungren because of his experience--not as many as sided with Davis, but significantly better than the other Democrats.

Both Lungren and Davis, polls and analysts suggest, face November with a host of attributes and a some liabilities.

Davis commands voter respect on the issue that beats all others this year, education. Education was cited as most important by 43% of voters exiting the polls; the next highest issue was 28% for crime.

Among those who specified education, Davis had 40% of the votes, to Lungren’s 25%.

But Lungren controlled the second- and third-ranked issues, crime and taxes. Among those who cited taxes, he had a 47%-25% margin and among those who cited crime a 46%-29% margin.

Voters were split too on the character traits that they typically embrace in a gubernatorial candidate. The most important was experience, which was won by Davis. But among those who valued the next most important trait, leadership, Lungren won 44%-23%. The two were tied, at 32% each, among voters who cited the third-ranking character trait, which was having a clear vision of the state’s future.

Even as the election returns were being counted, the lines of contention for November were being roughed out.

Lungren, in his victory speech and in comments Wednesday, paid particular attention to the issues of crime and taxes on which voters support him. He also sought to frame education in Republican terms, by touting his support for private school vouchers.

He, and his surrogates, will try to portray Davis as a card-carrying liberal.

“By tomorrow, Gray Davis is going to be broke, he’s going to be a liberal, he’s going to be Jerry Brown’s former chief of staff,” Michael Schroeder, the state GOP chairman, said Tuesday night. “It’s a poor place to be.”

But Lungren has his problems as well. His conservative position on abortion--he opposes abortion rights--runs counter to the majority of the state’s voters. His party has, in recent years, offended the fastest-growing political group, Latinos. The man he seeks to replace, fellow Republican Pete Wilson, is a highly polarizing figure.

“On the issues that appear to be of greatest concern to California--education, tobacco, guns, choice--Dan Lungren is to the right of the California electorate and it appears to me that Gray Davis has got to be sure that people know that,” said Jeffe.

Indeed, Davis is scheduled to press that point today at a San Francisco news conference with national abortion rights activists.

Lungren also suffered the humiliation Tuesday of coming in second, among all voters, to Davis in the gubernatorial balloting. Davis had 34.8% and Lungren 33.7%. The Times exit poll showed that twice as many Republicans crossed party lines to vote for Democrats than Democrats crossed over to vote for Lungren.

Candidates Try for Broad Appeal

Davis, for his part, is emphasizing the moderate positions on social issues that he shares with most California voters. But he has signaled more than once that he will go toe-to-toe with Lungren on issues that normally favor Republicans.

Several times in his campaign, he sponsored events with military veterans--drawing a direct contrast between his service in Vietnam and Lungren’s lack thereof. The intention was to suggest that Davis is constitutionally tough, and can handle issues like crime. He tried to underscore that in his acceptance speech Tuesday night.

“I strongly support the death penalty,” he said. “I will take a back seat to no one to keep the schools and streets . . . free from crime.”

In the closing weeks of the primary, when their victories were apparent, both men turned their attention to November. Davis tried to play against Democratic stereotypes with conservative gestures; Lungren tried to soften his image and move to the center as well.

Analyst Jeffe said the election may turn on that sort of image definition and also on which of the candidates can ride the state’s burgeoning economy come election day.

“What is the record that each man can tout?”she asked rhetorically. “If they say it’s morning in California, what did they have to do with it?”

Times staff writers Miles Corwin, Dave Lesher, Dan Morain and Peter M. Warren contributed to this story.