Orioles Take Note, Here’s a Quick Way to Rebuild

The Orioles must make a staggering number of vital, expensive free agent decisions in the next couple of weeks. And they must do it with a rookie general manager who doesn’t even have an assistant GM to help with the lifting.

Cross your fingers for Frank Wren, the man who may have the toughest job in baseball. Do it fast. Do it right. Do it for Peter Angelos.

“It’s like the little boy putting his finger in the dike. You put your finger in one hole and then you have another hole,” said Wren last week after signing former Seattle closer Mike Timlin for $16 million for four years.

Let’s try to help Wren, one of the game’s sharp personnel minds, from having that dam break on top of his head.

For the last 20 years, two rules-of-thumb have helped dope out the complex lunacy of the November free agent market place. Apply them. Then pray.

First, only sign genuine stars or obvious bargains. (Define a star as anybody whose name will be on the Hall of Fame ballot someday.)

Second, avoid the glut of expensive semi-good players like Jose Offerman, who just signed for $26 million for four years with Boston, epitomizes the type.

Real stars. Bargains. Rookies. That’s the formula.

As an addendum, always spend far more money up the middle--on pitching, catching, middle infield and center field--than on the plodding power spots.

How would all this apply to the Orioles’ almost insanely complex offseason puzzle? It would simplify matters. Of course, it might fail. But at least you would be guided by ideas that make sense and that have worked many times in the past.

Here is, perhaps, the best team the Orioles could realistically field next Opening Day. It’s a club with a legitimate playoff shot and the kind of rotation that could take you a long way once you got there. It would surely be fascinating to watch. It wouldn’t bust the budget. It would bring along key young players while emphasizing Manager Ray Miller’s forte--handling pitching. And if the plan didn’t work, you would still have enough flexibility in payroll and personnel to reenter the market next winter to improve yourself again.

So, why not work backward from this optimum scenario.

* Sign Randy Johnson--The Orioles need to raise their bid by about $6 million, to $35 million for three years--an astronomical price. However, their main competition may be Arizona. Appeal to Johnson’s pride. How will history remember you if you go for the bucks and end up a Diamondback? Another Sudden Sam McDowell?

Johnson would fuel-inject the whole Orioles rotation. Suddenly, Mike Mussina, Scott Erickson, Juan Guzman and Sidney Ponson would all look overqualified for their roles! A bullpen of Mike Timlin, Armando Benitez, Arthur Rhodes and Jesse Orosco would back them. Scott Kamieniecki and Rocky Coppinger return. That’s a ton of pitching.

* Sign Brian Jordan for $32 million for four years--The center fielder batted .316 and slugged .534 last season batting behind Mark McGwire in St. Louis. You get a swift cleanup hitter who’s just one level below Rafael Palmeiro as a run producer, but for about $8 million less over the same number of years. And he’s three years younger. The hitch? His NFL defensive back body has been on the DL five times in the ‘90s.

* Sign catcher Benito Santiago--He missed almost all of last season after a Christmas car wreck. He played well enough in September to take a chance. At 34, he should come cheap. And he can flat out catch. For the Orioles, that would be new. The easiest catcher to steal against last season--by a huge margin--was Chris Hoiles: 99 steals in 645 innings. If you can’t get Santiago, then sign classy old Terry Steinbach, 36. Not a pretty choice, with his arm less than it once was. But the best available.

* Put Calvin Pickering at first base and Harold Baines at DH with Chris Hoiles splitting time between both spots--Let Ryan Minor stay in the minors to learn to shrink his strike zone.

Above all, get Hoiles 500 at-bats. He’s a 25-homer, 90-RBI secret weapon who’s been hidden behind the plate for years. Last year, he had 15 homers and 56 RBI in 267 at-bats.

* Move Brady Anderson to left field--Keep Cal Ripken at third base, where he’s still far from the weakest starter in the league. At first base, he would be dead last.

The Big Unit will be a tough sign, too. Luckily, his stock is down a tad because he’s lost his last five playoff starts and is 34. Let’s be contrarian. He’s still motivated. And he’s only six months older than Kevin Brown, whom everybody thinks is young enough for a five-year deal.

At least Wren sees his top priority clearly. Not Bernie Williams or Mo Vaughn. The Orioles are one top pitcher away from being a serious team again. Two remain.

Compare worst-case scenarios. If Johnson’s elbow blows, you’re out $35 million or more. That’s awful. If Brown blows, you may be locked into $60 plus million.

“I may want to shoot myself in a couple of years whichever way I go,” said Wren Tuesday.

There are roughly 7,634 ways to redesign the Orioles in the next month. Frank Wren has a simple job: choose one.

The right one.