Kentucky Derby Is Wide Open--Lukas

More than Bob Baffert, more than Nick Zito, more than anyone, Wayne Lukas is best qualified among trainers to analyze the 125th Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs on May 1.

Lukas has won one more Derby than Baffert and Zito, who have two apiece; he has started at least one horse in the race every year since 1981; and he’s the only trainer who has had horses in major races in both California and Florida this year.

In Saturday’s Santa Anita Derby, Lukas finished fourth with Charismatic, a 44-1 shot who was beaten by the winner, General Challenge, by 8 1/4 lengths. Last month, Lukas’ Cat Thief finished third, a half-length back of the winner, Vicar, in the Florida Derby at Gulfstream Park. Cat Thief, who’s been either second or third in his last four races and is two for 10 overall, is a definite for the Kentucky Derby, after making his final prep in the Blue Grass Stakes at Keeneland next Saturday. Lukas lists Charismatic as “possible” for the Kentucky Derby.

“Early in the year,” Lukas said Sunday, “I thought the colts on the West Coast were quite a bit stronger. But the Florida group has turned out better than I thought. Then when [trainer Nick] Zito won that race at Turfway Park the other day, that solidified my thinking.”

Considered to be one of Zito’s second-stringers, Stephen Got Even won the Gallery Furniture Stakes on March 27, handing Baffert’s Straight Man his first loss.

“We’re not down to two or three favorites by any means,” Lukas said. “I think if you talked to any 20 Derby gurus, you’d get 18 opinions. This could be a Ferdinand or Gato Del Sol kind of year.”

In other words, Lukas smells a longshot winning this year’s Derby. Gato Del Sol, in 1982, won at 21-1, and Ferdinand, four years later, was 17-1. Gato Del Sol’s win was at the expense of Muttering, Lukas’ Santa Anita Derby winner, and the trainer’s Badger Land, second in the Florida Derby, was fifth against Ferdinand.

“The Blue Grass usually doesn’t furnish any of the answers,” Lukas said. “I’m looking for a good, solid effort from Cat Thief. He doesn’t have to win, and if he does win, it should be on my terms. The main thing is that I want Mike Smith to get to know the colt.”

Smith is one of those name riders--he won back-to-back Eclipse Awards in 1993-94--who has never won a Derby. He’ll be riding Cat Thief for the first time. Cat Thief was ridden in his last five races by Pat Day, who is committed to Menifee in the Blue Grass.

“The Blue Grass is a funny race,” Lukas said. “Horses have run poorly at Keeneland and then gone on to win the Derby, and there have been some Blue Grass winners who couldn’t cut it at Churchill Downs.”

Horses from Dubai and the fillies are unknown factors. Prado’s Landing, who’ll be ridden by Chris McCarron on Saturday at Keeneland, is the only Dubai horse that will have a U.S prep before the Derby. Worldly Manner and Aljabr are expected to run at Churchill Downs off unofficial trial races in the United Arab Emirates.

“I’ve never been to Dubai, and I don’t know what kind of a setup they’ve got over there,” Lukas said, “but I’ve got great respect for their horses, because that guy [Sheik Mohammed of the Godolphin Stable] knows what he’s doing. Getting a handle on the fillies is tough. You’ve got to take them from a different perspective. A filly’s only won the Derby three times in 124 years, and I had one of those [Winning Colors in 1988]. To win the Derby, a filly not only has to be the best horse, but needs to have a tactical advantage in the race, like Winning Colors did.”

One of the fillies, Honest Lady, took herself out of Kentucky Derby contention with a seventh-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. Three Ring, another filly, appears to be definite for the Derby, while there appears to be less and less a chance that Baffert would send either Excellent Meeting or Silverbulletday into the race. Their option is the Kentucky Oaks, a $500,000 race just for fillies, at Churchill Downs the day before the Derby.

Excellent Meeting comes from the same stable, Golden Eagle Farm, as General Challenge, and John and Betty Mabee, who run the outfit, would have a chance to win both Kentucky races by splitting them up. After Silverbulletday’s rousing win Saturday in the Ashland at Keeneland, her owner, Mike Pegram, said: “If [running in the Derby] was my decision, my answer right now would be no.”

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Trainer Bob Baffert continued his roll at Santa Anita on Sunday, setting a record in the process.

When Commitisize wired his six rivals in the $150,000 El Rincon Handicap, the 4-year-old son of Explodent provided Baffert with his 15th stakes win of the meet, breaking the mark of 14 set by Charlie Whittingham in 1970-71 and equaled by Neil Drysdale in the 1997-98 season.

“I didn’t even know I was that close [to the record],” said Baffert. “I’ve been gone so much. I read it in the [Daily Racing] Form the other day. It’s just amazing.”

In winning for the sixth time in 16 starts, Commitisize, owned by Mike Pegram, provided jockey David Flores with his third win of the day and, with 11 days left in the meet, he holds a 61-60 lead over Alex Solis in the rider standings.

Commitisize, who paid $8.20 as the 3-1 third choice, beat Majorien by a little more than a length in 1:48 1/5 for the 1 1/8 miles on turf. Favored Ladies Din was third, beaten 2 1/2 lengths.

“Something’s funny mentally with him right now,” said Gary Stevens of the 3-2 choice. “I thought I was the winner at the five-sixteenths [pole], but when I asked him, he won’t give me any kind of kick. [Trainer] Julio [Canani] will get him figured out. There’s a lot more than what he gave me today.”

Horse Racing Notes

Santa Anita Handicap winner Free House, expected to make his next start in the Pimlico Special on May 8, worked six furlongs in 1:12 1/5 Sunday morning at Hollywood Park. . . . Besides Commitisize, David Flores’ other winners Sunday came with Lake Veronica in the third and Noble Covenant in the sixth. . . . Bob Baffert now has a meet-high 38 victories at Santa Anita, giving him 21 more than his closest pursuers Vladimir Cerin, Ron McAnally and Bobby Frankel. . . . Previously unbeaten Desert Hero, who finished third in the Santa Anita Derby in his third start, might run in the Derby Trial, the Saturday before the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Then trainer Richard Mandella would decide about the Derby. . . . General Challenge and Prime Timber, 3 1/2 lengths apart as they ran 1-2 Saturday, will ship to Churchill Downs a week from Tuesday. . . . With Indian Charlie and General Challenge, Baffert became only the fifth trainer to win consecutive Santa Anita Derbies. The others were Ben Jones, with Hill Gail and Chanlea in 1952-53; Mesh Tenney, with Swaps and Terrang in 1955-56; Bob Wheeler, with Silver Spoon and Tompion in 1959-60; and Wayne Lukas with Muttering and Marfa in 1982-83. . . . Baffert said that Finder’s Gold and Straight Man are out of the Derby picture. “I’m thinking Preakness with Straight Man,” Baffert said. “He might run in either the Lexington [at Keeneland on April 18] or in Texas [the Lone Star Derby the same day].”

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Staff writer Bob Mieszerski contributed to this story.