TONIGHT

* The line: Minnesota by 2 1/2.

* Injuries: VIKINGS--DOUBTFUL: CB Keith Thibadeaux (shoulder). PROBABLE: G Matt Birk (thumb); RB Leroy Hoard (knee); S Orlando Thomas (hamstring); WR Chris Carter (ankle). BUCCANEERS--OUT: QB Trent Dilfer (shoulder). DOUBTFUL: G Ken Blackman (knee). PROBABLE: RB Warrick Dunn (ankle); S John Lynch (knee); S Damien Robinson (hip); CB Floyd Young (shoulder); QB Eric Zeier (rib).

* Key elements: Vikings have the league’s highest red-zone touchdowns-allowed percentage, 25.8 (eight out of 31 possessions). Buccaneers have given up 23 points in last three games.

* Story line: No one could blame the Buccaneers for flirting with the idea of abandoning their conservative offense against the Vikings. After all, the Vikings’ 30th-ranked pass defense has allowed more than 800 yards through the air its past two games. But Buccaneer Coach Tony Dungy offers the flip side. Minnesota won both of those games, supporting his contention that the best way to ground the high-flying Vikings is by running and controlling the clock. Only one team, Green Bay with Brett Favre leading a last-minute drive, has been able to beat Minnesota without rushing for at least 100 yards. Tampa Bay gained 84 while throwing for 286 in a 21-14 loss at Minnesota on Oct. 3. A year ago, the Buccaneers handed the Vikings their only regular-season loss by rushing 41 times for 246 yards in a 27-24 victory.

HOW THEY MATCH UP

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Min TB Points scored 24.7 (5) 15.8 (24) Points allowed 20.5 (22) 12.8 (2) Passing O 282.9 (1) 174.6 (28) Rushing O 104.5 (19) 121.0 (9) Total O 387.4 (2) 295.6 (27) Passing D 278.9 (31) 189.2 (3) Rushing D 103.8 (15) 83.1 (3) Total D 382.7 (30) 272.3 (2)

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* Steve Springer’s pick: Minnesota.