Brown Says He’ll Run Again for S.F. Mayor

Mayor Willie Brown is vulnerable. His poll numbers have tanked, and the natives are extremely restless over the twin urban terrors of homelessness and bad public transportation.

But as he throws his trademark Borsalino into the ring--he announced Saturday that he will run for reelection--almost no one of any stature has been willing to take him on. At least not yet.

As one of the most powerful Democrats in California and the incumbent mayor of the state’s most Democratic big city, Brown has turned this water-ringed peninsula into a desert for anyone who would run against him.

“Willie Brown is playing the power politics role here,” said former Mayor Frank Jordan, who was unseated by Brown four years ago and is pondering another run against him. “He supplies a lot of the funding sources for the Democratic Party. If you want a future in politics, you don’t run against him. He rules by party politics and he rules by fear.”

Brown’s camp, of course, would beg to differ, arguing that his dearth of opposition and wealth of endorsements (everyone from President Clinton to the FDR Democratic Club for Seniors and Persons With Disabilities) are proof of his effectiveness.

“Mayor Brown is a vital force in San Francisco politics and city government, and most people are not desirous of challenging him,” said P.J. Johnston, Brown’s campaign spokesman, though he acknowledges the mayor’s low standing in the polls. “I think we’ll see his reelection effort gain momentum as we get the word out about the improved economy, the budget surpluses.”

San Francisco is in the throes of its first building boom in 15 years. Property values are soaring, vacancy rates have plummeted. On June 1, Brown unveiled a $4.2-billion budget stressing quality of life issues. It calls for the creation of more than 1,000 city jobs, including 200 more police officers and 250 more bus and trolley drivers.

As he announced his reelection campaign Saturday, Brown was joined on stage by Gov. Gray Davis, Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante and Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa. Brown clapped and sang along with hundreds of supporters to the disco anthem “We Are Family,” and Davis read a letter from Clinton praising Brown for making “tremendous progress in improving the lives of the people of San Francisco.”

Boasted Brown: “You knew what you invested in four years ago and it’s paid dividends day in and day out.”

Brown’s best financed and most viable opponent to date is former political consultant Clint Reilly, a wealthy Democratic businessman and third generation San Franciscan. Reilly is financing his own campaign and pounding his opponent on the city’s dissatisfaction with the troubled Municipal Railway System.

Polls by the San Francisco Chronicle and the consulting firm Solem & Associates show that 34% and 32% respectively of those surveyed would give the nod to Brown on Nov. 2. Reilly’s recent private polling shows that only 28% of those asked would definitely or probably vote to reelect the mayor.

“The quality of life in San Francisco is declining for the average person, and they know it, and that’s what this is all about,” Reilly said. “The only thing he can point to as a success in four years is a series of construction programs. That’s not enough when you have a whole spectrum of voters demanding quality of life.”

One of Brown’s biggest mistakes, said political consultant Jim Ross, is overpromising and underproducing--particularly his original election promise to fix the ailing MUNI system in 100 days--a pledge that has come back to haunt him.

“The polls don’t agree with me, but in the last 18 months, he’s done a better job as mayor than he did when his polls were high,” Ross said. And even though surveys show him in low public favor, Ross added, Brown’s stature is a safety net that will likely protect him from too much opposition come election day.

“They may show him low, but as a candidate assessing your political future, do you want to take on someone who has literally been in the role of kingmaker in California politics for the last 20 years?” Ross asked.

Reilly does. So does activist Jim Reid, the self-proclaimed “darkest of dark horse candidates,” who spent nine days living on the streets and in homeless shelters to highlight the plight of the indigent.

Sixteen others have filed the initial paperwork stating their interest in taking on Brown, including A.D. Wyatt Norton, who founded the Jeffersonian Interdependent Party and declares on his campaign Web site “that we are taxed enough to demand a higher quality comedy at City Hall.”

Of the more well-known people said to be considering a run at San Francisco’s renovated Civic Center, Tom Ammiano, president of the Board of Supervisors, says he will make up his mind sometime before the Aug. 6 deadline for filing. Supervisor Leland Yee hasn’t decided and Supervisor Gavin Newsom has said he endorses Brown and will not run.

Jordan, who plans to make up his mind in about a week but sounds as if he’s already campaigning, noted that Brown’s 1999-2000 budget is $1.5 billion more than Jordan’s last, just over three years ago.

“Are the people of San Francisco $1.5 billion better off than they were 3 1/2 years ago?” Jordan asked. “Absolutely not. It’s a disgrace. . . . [Brown] hasn’t fixed MUNI, he hasn’t dealt with the homeless issue.”

If Jordan runs, analysts figure, it will likely bite into Reilly’s base of support. If the openly gay Ammiano runs, it could cut into Brown’s support in the gay and left community and possibly lead to a runoff election in December.

But regardless of San Franciscans’ apparent displeasure with the mayor, many political analysts believe the dapper Brown’s reelection is a veritable shoe-in--of the custom-cobbled, Italian sort.

“Most people in the political leadership of San Francisco believe the mayor has done a fine job, that it’s a two-term office and that he deserves a second term,” said political consultant Robert Barnes. “Willie Brown will be easily reelected.”