At St. Petersburg, Fla. Saturday, Channel 2 / Game 2

DUKE AT A GLANCE: Still looking for the team that can come within 15 points of them in the NCAA tournament, the Blue Devils know Michigan State is capable. That’s because the score was 73-67 on Dec. 2, when Duke beat the Spartans in the Great Eight in Chicago, coincidentally beginning its 31-game winning steak. The Blue Devils, coming off their loss to Cincinnati, jumped to a 17-2 lead, although the Spartans came back late in the game to cut it to three points before Duke pulled away. Trajan Langdon led Duke with 23 points and four three-pointers in that game.

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MICHIGAN STATE AT A GLANCE: The Spartans are back in the Final Four 20 years after winning the 1979 title, and point guard Mateen Cleaves has profited during the season from counseling by ’79 star Magic Johnson. There’s no question about the key statistic against Duke: Cleaves went three for 17 in the December loss and finished with nine points. The Spartans’ great weapon off the bench is Morris Peterson, who scored 24 in the Duke loss and on Sunday was voted outstanding player of the Midwest Regional.

DUKE

Probable starters

F Chris Carrawell (6-6, 220)

F Shane Battier (6-8, 215)

C Elton Brand (6-8, 260)

G Trajan Langdon (6-3, 200)

G William Avery (6-2, 185)

Key reserves

G Corey Maggette (6-6, 220)

C Chris Burgess (6-10, 245)

F Nate James (6-6, 195)

MICHIGAN STATE

Probable starters

F Antonio Smith (6-8, 250)

F Andre Hutson (6-8, 210)

F Jason Klein (6-7, 200)

G Charlie Bell (6-3, 185)

G Mateen Cleaves (6-2, 195)

Key reserves

F Morris Peterson (6-6, 210)

F A.J. Granger (6-9, 230)

* FORWARDS: This game has lots of forwards in the beefy 6-6 to 6-8 mold. Antonio Smith is a banger and the Spartans all work hard on defense. But the ability of Duke’s Chris Carrawell to drive or make the three-point basket and Shane Battier’s three-point range are an issue--and nobody can match the athleticism of Duke freshman Corey “Uh-oh, Maggette-oh” Maggette.

* CENTER: Officially, that’s Elton Brand against Michigan State’s gang of bruisers, but they’re all really power forwards anyway. Maybe they slow Brand down for a while--until Langdon, Avery and Co. rain down three-point shots.

* GUARDS: Avery-Cleaves is the glamour matchup in this game. Cleaves’ shot is unreliable as usual--he’s shooting 36% in the tournament--but he still makes huge plays when needed and had 11 assists against Kentucky. Avery might have the deepest three-point range of any college player.

* INTANGIBLES: Michigan State is tough, but zeroed-in Duke is one of the most overwhelming favorites the tournament has ever had.

* COACHING: Don’t underestimate Tom Izzo. He’s one of the sharpest strategists in the country and he’ll have a plan against Duke. But Mike Krzyzewski has too many weapons and he has orchestrated the psychology of this title drive with a deft touch.

* THE PICK: It will be a tough, physical game and particularly brutal inside. But in the end, Michigan State won’t have enough firepower to keep up with Duke.