Serious Crimes Continue to Dip in U.S., Locally

Serious crime nationwide, on the wane since a 1991 peak, plunged 10% in the first six months of 1999, and the murder rate fell an even sharper 13%, according to an FBI survey based on crimes reported to police.

Orange County recorded a 9% overall crime decline, led by a 22% drop in Huntington Beach and a 10% drop in the communities served by the Sheriff’s Department.

Other major California cities also reported declines in serious crime, ranging from the double digits in San Jose (15%) and San Diego (11%) to Los Angeles (9%) and more modest drops in San Francisco (5%) and Long Beach (3%).

The figures released by the FBI on Sunday, the first to look nationwide at the first half of this year, found reductions of 8% in violent crimes and 10% in property crimes--the two categories of serious crime. Figures for Orange County were released last week by the state.

“Obviously, we’re elated,” said Carole Florman, a Justice Department spokeswoman, who credited such Clinton administration programs as hiring an additional 100,000 police officers nationwide.

But police officials and criminal justice experts say a range of factors accounts for the 7 1/2 years of falling crime reports.

“No. 1, the economy is good,” said Sgt. Raul Luna of the Santa Ana Police Department, which reported a drop of 6% in serious crimes. Luna also cited a decline in the population of teenagers and young adults who are most prone to crime, as well as the recently enacted “three strikes” law that automatically puts repeat felons behind bars.

Whatever the causes of the decline, one result is clear to authorities: A falling crime rate helps police fight crime. Lighter caseloads free up officers and detectives to solve old crimes and beef up community patrols, officials said.

Property crimes in Orange County dropped 18% during the first six months of the year, while violent crime--such as murder and rape--fell 3%. Both Huntington Beach and the Sheriff’s Department recorded 30% drops in violent crime.

Other cities didn’t fare as well. Anaheim saw a 29% jump in violent incidents, which officials attributed to a rash of gang assaults and bar brawls. Its total crime rate dropped 4%.

The FBI statistics were culled from reports forwarded by more than 9,300 law enforcement agencies that account for roughly two-thirds of the nation’s population. They provide a preliminary snapshot of public safety in the half-year, combining reports of violent crime and property crimes such as burglary, larceny and auto theft.

A fuller survey on 1999 crime statistics is due next spring. In May, FBI figures showed that reported crime in 1998 had dropped 7% compared with the year before.

FBI officials say this is the longest streak of declining crime since the bureau began collecting national crime data in 1930.

All regions of the country reported drops in serious crime in the latest survey, but the steepest decline--12%--was in Western states. Robbery nationwide was down 10%; forcible rape, 8%; and aggravated assault, 7%. Property crime reports also fell across the board.

Some experts cautioned against reading too much into the crime statistics. Gerald Caiden, a professor of public administration at USC who specializes in organized crime, said police departments could manipulate their reports. Police might seek to bolster the number of reported crimes to stir up public support for budget increases, or to low-ball the number to exaggerate progress in fighting crime.

What’s more, crime statistics are often a poor gauge of the public’s perceptions of safety and police performance. “The fancy folks will say, ‘Oh, we’ve got wonderful police,’ but the people in the trenches can say, ‘You’ve got to be kidding,’ ” Caiden said.

But others say that falling crime rates reflect a sea change in recent decades in how society views crime and criminals--part of a trend that includes such disparate phenomena as the rise of gated communities, a surge in prison construction and enactment of laws cracking down on criminals, particularly juveniles. Such measures have all been aimed at deterring crime, though there is great debate over their effectiveness.

“A consensus has emerged that didn’t exist in the 1960s--that criminals are responsible for their own behavior,” said Gerald Caplan, dean of the McGeorge School of Law in Sacramento. More criminals know “they’re not going to get the benefit of the doubt,” Caplan said.

Although Clinton administration officials seize on the unprecedented easing of the crime rate as evidence of their policies’ success, they argue that the nation’s murder rate is still unacceptably high. In a Nov. 4 news conference, Atty. Gen. Janet Reno argued that stricter gun control laws were needed in response to a spate of multiple homicides around the country, including shootings on school campuses.

“Crime is down significantly, but we still are one of the most violent nations in the world, and we don’t have to be,” Reno said. From 1992 to 1996, the attorney general told reporters, Chicago had more than 3,000 gun homicides, while Toronto, a city of similar size, had just 100.