GOP, Democrats Gird for Key 2000 Battles

State Senate Republican leader Ross Johnson is so optimistic about his party’s prospects at the polls next year in California that he shaved off his beard.

Ever since the 1998 elections, when Republicans got trounced in the contests for most statewide offices, including governor, and lost seats in the Legislature, Johnson has worn the facial hair as a tongue-in-cheek expression of his disappointment.

Now, says the Irvine partisan, “I’ve decided to show my face again.” He is “really looking forward to the March primary and November 2000 election.”

But Johnson’s confidence falls short of forecasting a Republican takeover of the Senate, which has been controlled by Democrats for almost three decades. Democrats outnumber Republicans 24 to 15, with one vacancy.

“I’m not making any predictions along those lines, but I feel very good about the lineup we are putting together. We’re optimistic,” Johnson said.

Next year, half the Senate’s 40 seats and all 80 Assembly seats will be up for election. Party nominees will be chosen in the March 7 primary to compete in the November general election.

The biggest prize for the winning party will be the power to reshape legislative districts based on population changes reflected in the 2000 census. Traditionally, the party in power draws the lines to its advantage for the next decade.

Like their Senate colleagues, the Assembly’s Republicans insist they are stoked with confidence heading into the election year, mainly because they foresee presidential candidate George W. Bush at the top of their ticket and good fortune trickling down to them.

But Scott Baugh of Huntington Beach, leader of Assembly Republicans, declines to predict a return of his chamber to the Republican column; it’s been Democratic territory since 1971, except briefly in 1995-96. Democrats outnumber Republicans in the Assembly 47 to 32, with one independent.

However, Baugh does forecast a gain of “several seats.” He bases his assessment on the field of what he calls high-quality candidates, including eight newcomer women and several minorities, and the belief that “we are going to have a great Republican year with George W. Bush at the top of the ticket.”

“The top of the ticket will dictate the Republican turnout. If the Republican turnout is good, it will help us,” Baugh said.

Republicans generally blame the anemic performance of gubernatorial nominee Dan Lungren at the top of their ticket for their heavy losses last year. “Dan Lungren simply never gave people a reason to vote for him, and Republicans stayed home in droves,” one GOP official said.

Meanwhile, Democrats contend they are poised to extend their winning streak in legislative elections. Among other assets, they cite a booming national and California economy, few demands for radical change in Sacramento and control of both branches of state government by Democrats for the first time in a generation.

“We’ve been right on the issues,” said California Democratic Party Chairman Art Torres. “If you’re not in favor of [abortion] choice, the environment, HMO bill of rights and against assault weapons, you’re not going to get elected.”

But Torres conceded that Democrats, still full of confidence after last year’s victories, must guard against slipping into cruise control as they scan next year’s election horizon.

Thanks to the full impact of term limits in the Legislature, a dizzying array of primaries is about to burst forth, especially among “termed-out” Assembly members eager to extend their political careers in the Senate. Assembly members are limited to three two-year terms; senators are restricted to two four-year terms.

In several Senate primaries, longtime friends and colleagues from the Assembly are running against each other in what are shaping up to be costly and potentially ugly races that could send the victors into November wounded.

For example, two liberal Democrats, Assemblywoman Sheila Kuehl of Santa Monica and Assemblyman Wally Knox of Los Angeles, are matched up in what analysts foresee as a hard-fought, high-spending primary for the Senate seat of retiring Democratic Sen. Tom Hayden. Kuehl is backed by Gov. Gray Davis.

A bruising Democratic fight is also expected for the South-Central seat of Teresa Hughes (D-Inglewood), who is termed out. Assemblyman Richard Floyd of Wilmington will face Assemblyman Ed Vincent, a former mayor of Inglewood. Both the Hayden and Hughes seats are considered safe for Democrats in the fall, however.

But in a key swing district, two Assembly Democrats, Jack Scott of Altadena and Scott Wildman of Los Angeles, will scrap for the seat of Sen. Adam Schiff (D-Burbank), who is running to unseat Rep. James Rogan (R-Glendale). The chief Republican contender to succeed Schiff is businessman Paul Zee, a South Pasadena city councilman.

Both parties have targeted some seats with no incumbents and districts that could swing either way.

At the top of the Democratic list is Assemblywoman Audie Bock, a Green Party member from Piedmont who upset Democrat Elihu Harris, former mayor of heavily Democratic Oakland, for a vacant Assembly seat last winter. Bock has since switched to independent. Democrat Wilma Chan, an Alameda County supervisor, intends to run, as does Harris.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Election Targets

A sampling of key state legislative races next year:

STATE SENATE

District 5 (San Joaquin, Sacramento counties). Incumbent Patrick Johnston (D-Stockton) is retiring. District is turning more Republican.

District 7 (Contra Costa, Alameda counties). Incumbent Richard Rainey (R-Walnut Creek) seeks second term.

District 15 (Monterey, San Benito, Santa Clara counties). Incumbent Bruce McPherson (R-Santa Cruz) running again. Democrats far outnumber Republicans, but 14% of voters are independents.

District 21 (Los Angeles County). Incumbent Adam Schiff (D-Burbank) is running for Congress, leaving seat open for primary and general election battles.

District 27 (Los Angeles County). Betty Karnette (D-Long Beach) seeks second term.

*

STATE ASSEMBLY

District 17 (San Joaquin County). Michael Machado (D-Linden) is barred by term limits from reelection. Republican-turned-Democratic district; GOP believes it can win it back.

District 24 (Santa Clara County). Jim Cunneen (R-San Jose) is retiring. Democrats hope to retake district.

District 54 (Los Angeles). Alan Lowenthal (D-Long Beach) is running uncontested in primary. GOP challengers include Los Angeles City Councilman Rudy Svorinich Jr.

District 61 (Los Angeles, San Bernardino counties). Nell Soto (D-Pomona) plans to run for state Senate in special election Jan. 11 but has also filed papers to seek another Assembly term. Republican Assembly leaders support Pomona Mayor Eddie Cortez for Soto’s seat in lower chamber.