Sides in El Toro PR War Spend Lots, Sway Few

Ignoring multimillion-dollar efforts to sway public opinion, Orange County residents are as polarized as ever over plans for an airport at El Toro, according to a UC Irvine survey released Monday.

Divisiveness over the fate of the former Marine Corps Air Station has proved intractable over the past three years as annual polls show that attitudes remain basically unchanged.

“This is as stuck as you can get in terms of public opinion,” said UC Irvine professor Mark Baldassare, who co-directed UCI’s Orange County Annual Survey.

In the latest survey, 42% of 1,000 residents responding favor construction of the airport and 46% oppose it. The rest are undecided about converting the former base into Southern California’s second-largest commercial airfield.

Airport attitudes were the same in each of the past two years: 41% in favor, 48% opposed and 11% undecided.

Residents also renewed their dissatisfaction with the handling of the issue by county officials, a sentiment strong in both pro-airport North County and anti-airport South County.

The responses clearly show that the debate remains mired without discernible movement toward consensus or resolution, Baldassare said. The questions were asked Sept. 1 to 13, with 735 responses coming from North County.

“Both sides are sending messages to targeted audiences [aimed at] hardening attitudes, not changing them,” he said. “This is taxpayer money being spent that isn’t having any effect, and more money is going to be spent on these propaganda wars.”

Just last week, airport foes from an alliance of eight South County cities approved spending an additional $1.75 million on public education efforts aimed to torpedo the airport, bringing their total to $4 million. County government has spent about $800,000 on its communication efforts, while the city of Newport Beach recently approved about $500,000 in spending.

Both sides in the debate are eyeing an anticipated March vote on a measure that would require a two-thirds vote by county residents for building or expanding airports, large jails or hazardous-waste landfills. While government entities are barred from spending money to advocate positions on ballot measures, money can be spent on general education efforts.

Baldassare declined to say whether pollsters asked about the fate of that measure, called the Safe and Healthy Communities initiative. The entire survey will be released next month.

Airport foes and supporters agreed on one thing: The latest poll shows that there hasn’t been enough spent on outreach by either side to budge existing opinion or to convince the bulk of undecided residents, who come mostly from North County.

“People aren’t being told the straight truth,” said Meg Waters, spokeswoman for the South County cities’ group. “It makes our job harder [because] it’s government by conspiracy.”

David Ellis, spokesman for a pro-airport group in Newport Beach, said countywide opinion reflected a similar split in December 1993, shortly after the base was targeted for closure. At that time, 44% opposed an airport and 42% favored it. A year later, voters approved the airport, 51% to 49%.

Ellis said tax dollars spent so far by South County cities on swaying public opinion would have been better spent on other local needs.

“If I were the taxpayers of South County, I’d be furious that all of this money is being spent with nothing to show for it,” Ellis said.

Even though residents were split on El Toro, nearly half--47%--said they preferred that county air travelers rely on John Wayne Airport. Some 36% said both airports should be used, while only 10% said El Toro should handle all of the county’s air-travel needs.

Residents clearly want John Wayne to remain a commercial airport. Waters called the possibility of closing the airport a cloaked agenda of Newport Beach residents who favor El Toro’s airfield.

Ellis responded that residents are undereducated about the limitations at John Wayne Airport, which has only one short commercial runway on 500 acres. Plans for the new airport at El Toro include two long runways and two shorter ones on 2,000 acres.

Meantime, state Assembly members on a special airport committee will hear from both sides in a hearing today in Santa Ana on long-term airport capacity in Southern California.

The public meeting begins at 11 a.m. at the Rancho Santiago Community College District Boardroom, Suite 107, 2323 N. Broadway in Santa Ana. Public comment is scheduled for 3:30 p.m.

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

Airport Views Remain Grounded

Views on the planned airport at El Toro haven’t changed much in three years, according to polls by UC Irvine. More Orange County residents oppose the plans, and more want John Wayne Airport alone to handle future needs.

“Do you favor or oppose the proposal to transform the El Toro Marine Corps Air Station into an international aiport?”

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1997 1999 Favor 41% 42% Oppose 48 46 Don’t know 11 12

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“Which of these do you most prefer to meet Orange County’s air travel needs?”

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1997 1999 John Wayne only 49% 47% El Toro only 11 10 Both airports 34 36 Other/don’t know 6 7

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Source: UCI Orange County Annual Survey