LAX Can’t Do It Alone

One of Southern California’s most important transportation decisions ever will probably be made in late 2000 or early 2001. It’s whether Los Angeles International Airport will get new infrastructure to meet soaring demand for passenger and cargo service. LAX needs to grow, but it cannot bear the whole burden.

Six-runway, five-runway and reconfigured four-runway plans have been drafted for LAX, to allow 92 million to 98 million passenger trips a year by 2015, a major increase over today’s 61 million trips. A fourth option is no expansion.

By 2015, regional demand for air passenger service is expected to hit 157 million passenger trips. Even with expansion, LAX would see its share of regional passenger traffic reduced from 75% to 60% of all passengers.

Right now, only Palmdale and Ontario would welcome airport expansion, and both have problems. Palmdale Regional Airport is separated from the L.A. Basin by mountains, many miles and heavily burdened freeway choke points. At Ontario International, air quality issues restrict growth.

Los Angeles World Airports, which operates LAX and the Ontario and Palmdale airports, is hoping for just a 1% increase in Burbank passenger traffic. Long Beach Airport, with severely capped operations, isn’t even mentioned.

In Orange County, a new El Toro International Airport is being planned but is opposed by 75% of neighbors, according to polls. John Wayne Airport currently has a cap of 8.4 million passenger trips. Orange County residents account for 12 million trips a year at LAX, adding to traffic and congestion problems.

Southern California’s airport problem is one with national echoes. More Americans are flying, but few want new or busier airports. Just three major airports have been built in the United States since 1970, a period in which passenger trips tripled. The East Coast was better prepared to absorb the growth, with 35 airports, including major facilities in Boston, New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Maryland, Virginia, Georgia and Florida.

On the West Coast, the vast majority of passengers and cargo is funneled through LAX and San Francisco International, two bottlenecks with less available land than other major airports. LAX encompasses less than 5.5 square miles, and San Francisco even less. Compare that with Orlando, Fla., at 23 square miles.

Aviation’s impact on jobs and revenues also must be considered. LAX alone generates 393,000 jobs and $61 billion annually. Southern California communities that are unwilling or unable to join in a true regional growth plan will see new jobs and revenues go to San Francisco International, which is expanding capacity, Denver, Phoenix and elsewhere.

Environmental reports on the LAX options are expected by mid-2000. At least a dozen state, federal and local agencies or panels will review or pass judgment on the plans, including the Los Angeles City Council. During that process, other airports such as those in Orange County, Burbank, Long Beach, Riverside and San Bernardino will have to step up and bear some of the burden that LAX has shouldered for so long

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Crowded LAX

Millions of passenger trips annually for Los Angeles International Airport:

1992: 47

1994: 51

1996: 58

1998: 61

1015*: 92

* Projected traffic under smallest of proposed expansion plans.

Source: Airports Council International--North America, Los Angeles World Airports