Term Limits Have Legislators Doing the Speaker Shuffle

Assembly Democrats already are speculating about who will be their next speaker. Not the speaker after Antonio Villaraigosa, who has announced he’s running for L.A. mayor. No, they’re ruminating on the next speaker after Villaraigosa’s successor.

Among the early front-runners: Assembly members Gil Cedillo (D-Los Angeles), Gloria Romero (D-Los Angeles), Darrell Steinberg (D-Sacramento) and Herb Wesson (D-Culver City).

More on this later. Much later. Like maybe next year. Villaraigosa’s successor--presumably Assemblyman Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks)--hasn’t even been elected speaker yet.

But the very fact that legislators already are pondering two speaker generations into the future is symptomatic of just how brief those generations have become under term limits. It’s also indicative of the Assembly’s instability and insecurity. The lawmakers are ambitious and antsy about their careers, with time always short.

Since 1990, when voters narrowly approved legislative term limits, Assembly members have been restricted to three two-year terms.

In the first term, they size up the place, begin to make their marks and jockey for position. Besides needing to master the Capitol maze, anyone aspiring to be speaker should represent a politically “safe” district, where the lawmaker’s party dominates. This way, the freshman can gratify leaders by obediently casting party-line votes without getting in trouble back home. Demonstrating an ability to hit up special interests for campaign money also helps. Through all this, Cedillo, Romero, Steinberg and Wesson seem to have edged to the front of the freshman pack.

It’s in their sophomore terms that members openly make their runs on the speakership. That’s when Villaraigosa, 46, was elected. And it’s when Hertzberg, 44, hopes to be.

In their final term, the lawmakers are fading lame ducks, anxiously looking for their next job. Like mayor of L.A.

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So far, the Senate has escaped this fidgetiness. Senators get more time on the job--two four-year terms--and usually benefit from having had more experience. Most are former Assembly members. The best example is Senate leader John Burton (D-San Francisco), whose lawmaking career spans four decades and still has five years left under term limits.

But the Assembly seems in constant chaos, as the current fencing between good friends Villaraigosa and Hertzberg illustrates.

“What we’re doing now is sort of a delicate dance,” says one Assembly Democrat, a Hertzberg intimate.

Hertzberg, an energetic centrist, apparently is far ahead of his main rival for speaker--

Assemblyman Tony Cardenas (D-Sylmar). Needing 41 votes, Hertzberg already has a solid 38, according to another key ally. “We’ve counted and we’ve recounted,” he says.

“People want this to be amicable. Nobody wants a fight. People want to be respectful of Antonio. At the same time, they’re looking out for their futures, and that doesn’t involve Antonio.”

Hertzberg and his allies are nudging Villaraigosa to step down in January. At least by March. They want plenty of time for the new speaker to prepare--to plan strategy and raise money--for the November elections, plus develop a legislative agenda.

In fact, Hertzberg is talking about permanently establishing a two-year speaker’s term that would encompass the leader’s fourth and fifth years in office--and make him or her responsible for one election cycle and two state budgets.

Villaraigosa is trying to cling to his prestigious perch at least until next summer, when the Democratic National Convention is held in L.A. The speaker’s platform helps him run for mayor, he feels. It certainly provides him with a larger staff.

Only last June, Villaraigosa was saying privately that he wouldn’t try to do both--run for mayor and lead the Assembly. “It’s not fair to the people supporting you, and it’s not fair to the people here,” he said then.

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Villaraigosa now is arguing he shouldn’t be forced to vacate his powerful post if he can successfully wear both hats. After all, he notes, the mayoral election is 17 months off. He can raise money both for his candidacy and his colleagues, he insists.

Nonsense, says a major lobbyist, a steady campaign donor who cynically explains: “People would be crazy to go through him to give money to the [Democratic] caucus. He’s not going to be around. I’m going to deal with the leadership, not somebody who’s down in L.A. running for mayor. The king is dead. Long live the king.”

Wait and watch, Villaraigosa counters. He’s hard-working and tenacious. “The good ones don’t sleep,” he says.

He’ll need to stay awake to watch his back. These are good people working in a bad system.