Why Felix Trinidad Will ... WIN

There is absolutely no question Oscar De La Hoya can beat Felix Trinidad in the rematch.

Of course, much depends on how long it takes De La Hoya to heal his wounds, psychological and otherwise, and rehabilitate his machismo after his first professional loss, which will occur tonight in the Mandalay Bay Events Center. The end will come suddenly, with Trinidad winning on a fifth-round TKO.

That is even quicker than the sixth-round conclusion he has promised the Puerto Rican people, who provide him with much of the motivation he needs to produce the fight of his life, which, granted, will be necessary for him to beat De La Hoya.

While De La Hoya marches behind the banners of his growing list of corporate sponsors, Tito Trinidad’s flag is Puerto Rico’s.

His people love him for his patriotism, as well as his boxing skills, and he is as popular on the island as baseball stars such as Juan Gonzalez, Ivan Rodriguez, Carlos Delgado and the Alomar brothers. If he beats De La Hoya, Trinidad will soar beyond them, approaching the status of the late Roberto Clemente.

More than 50% of Puerto Rico’s 3.8 million people are expected to pay the $49.95 pay-per-view price, a remarkably high buy rate, and many more than that are expected, one way or another, to have access to the fight, among them the inmates of the four facilities in the prison system who are judged the best behaved. Candidates running for office in this fall’s elections are providing big-screen viewings of the fight to attract potential voters.

Trinidad himself is not particularly political. But although he has not made it clear where he stands on the controversial issue of whether Puerto Rico should become independent or remain a U.S. commonwealth--he does not support statehood, having dedicated his last fight to those trying to rid the tiny island of U.S. Navy presence--he is aware of the honor it will bring to all Puerto Ricans if he defeats an American hero.

Then, of course, there is the money.

Trinidad is making a lot of it tonight. He is guaranteed $8.5 million, which is more than four times as much as he has earned for one fight before. But De La Hoya, the Golden Boy, is guaranteed $21 million this fight and could earn as much as $25 million.

If Trinidad wins, his promoter, Don King, promised this week that De La Hoya will be offered a rematch. The terms, however, will be reversed.

“Come back any time,” King told De La Hoya’s promoter, Bob Arum, during a news conference. “Just put your name where my name is on the contract and your name where mine is and it is done.”

If Trinidad, on the other hand, loses, there is no guarantee of a rematch and Arum said he can foresee the Puerto Rican fighting his next fight against a less glamorous opponent for $500,000.

That’s at least $20.5 million worth of motivation.

Now maybe, just maybe, motivation is something that means more in the gym than in the arena, and, if you looked at the fighters during Friday’s weigh-in, they both appeared to have made the most of their training camps. If so, the winner will be determined by style.

Again, the edge goes to Trinidad.

Don’t take my word for it. Take the word of Angelo Dundee, who trained, among others, Muhammad Ali and Sugar Ray Leonard.

“Trinidad doesn’t have to do nothing different to beat De La Hoya,” Dundee said. “He’s got the right style.”

De La Hoya is not accustomed to fighting anyone as tall as he is. Both fighters are listed at 5 feet 11. The tale of the tape is exactly that, a tale. The difference in their heights is negligible. Neither is De La Hoya accustomed to fighting anyone with a longer reach. Trinidad has 1 1/2 inches on him. More significantly, De La Hoya is not accustomed to fighting anyone who has power in both hands.

What does all that mean once the bell sounds? Trinidad will attack, staying inside the range of De La Hoya’s most dangerous punch, a looping left hook that gains power as it goes. His other knockout punch, the uppercut, will be shorter and, thus, less potent, because of Trinidad’s height. De La Hoya must rely on his jab, but it has been missing in action in recent fights.

Trinidad, meantime, has more snap in his punches, particularly in his left hook, which will connect with the right side of De La Hoya’s face, the vulnerable side. Trinidad is also vulnerable on that side, but he has been on the canvas only once in the last five years and his jaw is not as suspect as it once was.

If Trinidad is at a disadvantage, it is because of his lack of experience in fights of this magnitude. He has already outfoxed himself twice. Given a choice of selecting the gloves that will be worn or entering the ring last, he took the former and then chose the same Reyes gloves that De La Hoya always wears. When De La Hoya later insisted on weighing in last, Trinidad’s father, his trainer, negotiated a coin flip. Trinidad won and chose to step onto the scales first, giving De La Hoya his preference.

De La Hoya, however, has seemed inexperienced in the place where it counts most in recent fights, inside the ring. Against Julio Cesar Chavez the second time, Ike Quartey and Oba Carr, De La Hoya entered with a well-conceived strategy, inexplicably veered from it after a couple of rounds, floundered amateurishly, then recovered with desperate, albeit brave, offensive flurries to guarantee victory. He can’t decide from fight to fight, or even sometimes from round to round, whether he is a boxer or a brawler.

That will cost him tonight, but it won’t be the reason he loses. Neither, as Dundee, Emanuel Steward and others have suggested, will it be because he is too distracted by his commercial opportunities and aspiring singing career to focus on boxing.

He will lose because, on this one night, for the first time in his career, he will face a better fighter. I can’t wait for the rematch.

*

Randy Harvey can be reached at his e-mail address: randy.harvey@latimes.com.