SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA / A news summary : Report Boosts Debate Over Airport Plans

Failing to build an airport at El Toro and expand Los Angeles International would lead to a crush of passengers at other area airports, particularly John Wayne in Orange County and Ontario International, a regional panel said Thursday.

Without El Toro or a larger LAX, John Wayne Airport would have to be rebuilt to handle four times the number of passengers in 2020 that it now serves, and the newly expanded Ontario airfield would be pushed to triple in size, according to a report by the Southern California Assn. of Governments.

“This is a surprise,” said Lake Forest Councilman Richard Dixon, who is fighting plans to build an airport at the now-closed El Toro Marine base. “I would have thought more people would have taken advantage of Ontario.”

Dixon said he had hoped that the new forecasts would add ammunition to arguments that El Toro is not needed because passenger demand, which is expected to double to 158 million a year by 2020, could be handled at the other airports.

Instead, the findings by the agency, which controls state and federal funding for transportation plans, galvanized the arguments of those supporting El Toro’s construction--especially officials in Los Angeles County.

“Orange County has to carry its fair share. That’s the bottom line,” said Mike Stevens, president of LAX Expansion No, an anti-LAX expansion group based in Inglewood.

El Toro opponents, however, said the new forecasts do not take into account intangibles such as advances in communications technology that will reduce the need for travel by 2020.

“Heck, 20 years ago, we didn’t even have fax machines,” said Meg Waters, spokeswoman for an eight-city south Orange County coalition fighting the new airport.

Dixon is among elected officials from 75 Southern California cities that make up the agency’s regional council. While Dixon opposes El Toro, agency members from Los Angeles County cities oppose plans to expand LAX by 30 million passengers a year. The airport handled 63 million passengers last year.

The agency task force will meet again next month, when it is expected to vote on whether to adopt all or part of the forecasts.