Experts Warn of Potential County Quake Hazard

Up to 14,000 lives would be lost and $20 billion in property damage incurred if Ventura County were struck by a magnitude 8.3 quake along the south-central San Andreas fault, according to geologists and county officials.

The potential hazards posed by such a large seismic event are outlined in a report prepared by the Ventura County Sheriff’s Department.

Although the report is 2 years old, county officials Tuesday cited the disaster projections in the study to announce the beginning of Earthquake Preparedness Month. Officials said they want to raise awareness of the potential for a massive earthquake.

“The hazard is high,” said geologist Scott Lindvall, a Valencia geologist who consults for the county. “And the likelihood of future earthquakes in [Ventura County] in the next several years is probably higher than most places in California.”

There is a 60% chance in the next 30 years that Ventura County’s ground would shake with enough force to cause structural damage to buildings, according to a 1995 study by the Southern California Earthquake Center. The cities of Simi Valley and Fillmore incurred major structural damage in the 6.7 magnitude Northridge quake in 1994.

The Sheriff’s Department report lists the county fault lines most vulnerable to a major earthquake:

* The San Cayetona fault zone, which extends from Ojai to Los Angeles County.

* The Oak Ridge fault, which follows the Santa Clara River bed south near Fillmore.

* The Red Mountain fault, which extends from the Ventura River to the Santa Barbara County line.

* The Big Pine fault, which bisects Lockwood Valley in the county’s north end.

There are other fault zones through the Santa Susana Mountains in the east county, in Simi Valley and along the foothills of Ventura, Lindvall said.

The sheriff’s earthquake plan establishes more efficient communications between emergency response agencies, improved access to water and power and a clear chain of command, with Sheriff Bob Brooks at the helm, said Dale F. Carnathan, program administrator of the Office of Emergency Services for the Sheriff’s Department.

“By being able to direct resources in a more timely manner, we can save more lives,” Carnathan said.

New aspects of the sheriff’s plan, which is continually being updated, include:

* A larger reserve of water from the Calleguas Municipal Water District and private water companies.

* Twelve new radio channels to link emergency workers.

* County radios powered by generators during a power failure.

* An emergency center operating within an hour in the event of a disaster at the Ventura County Government Center.

Independent of the county’s plan, representatives for local utilities said Tuesday they also are braced for a major earthquake.

A five-month water supply has been reserved at the Calleguas Municipal Water District in two well-protected underground aquifers, General Manager Donald Kendall said. Eventually, the agency will have a three-year supply, he said.

By year’s end, Southern California Edison will have linked its 25 major substations in Southern California to the earthquake monitoring system at Caltech to reduce the time customers are without electricity, said Mike Montoya, Ventura County region manager for the utility.

“[Caltech’s system] has a shake map that allows us to figure out the extent of possible damage,” Montoya said. “During Northridge . . . we’d have to go out and physically check each station.”

On Tuesday, emergency vehicles were on display at the Ventura County Government Center and staff members distributed earthquake brochures known as “Duck, Cover and Hold,” which directs people to crouch under a desk or table and hold onto it for stability.

Door frames aren’t safe during an earthquake, because they sometimes are situated under unstable walls, officials said.

Most of the structures in Ventura County are modern and earthquake-proof, contrasted with the sensitive areas of San Francisco and Oakland that are more densely populated by older buildings, Lindvall said.

“I’d rather be situated in Ventura, rather than Oakland, California,” he said. “Even if Ventura has a higher likelihood of producing an earthquake.”