CUP FOR GRABS

For every reason to pick the Dallas Stars to repeat as Stanley Cup champions, there’s a reason to think they can’t win again.

Goalie Ed Belfour tied Buffalo’s Dominik Hasek for the NHL’s best save percentage, .919. The Stars’ penalty killing was the NHL’s best, 89.3%. They topped 100 points for the fourth consecutive season, a franchise record. They’ve been through this grind before.

“We know what it takes to step it up for the playoffs,” center Mike Modano said. “The experience we gained last year can take us a long way. We had to go through it firsthand to understand it. We know what buttons to push.”

But . . .

Joe Nieuwendyk’s balky back acted up last week, giving him painful spasms. Defenseman Sergei Zubov, a catalyst on the power play, is sidelined indefinitely because of a knee injury. Winger Jere Lehtinen, twice the Selke winner as the top defensive forward, played only 17 games because of ankle problems. He returned in the season finale, but the Stars finished with an 0-3-2 streak and raised questions about their readiness to defend their title.

“We’re certainly going to have to play a lot better than we’re playing right now,” Coach Ken Hitchcock said last week. “This is not something everybody wants. . . . We’re not playing well five-on-five and we’re not playing very physical at all.”

Said winger Kirk Muller: “You don’t want to get into a turn-it-on and turn-it-off type of thing. We’ve got enough veterans here to know what we have to do. It’s mental. This team has a lot of great players, but a lot of success comes from commitment and how hard you work day in and day out.”

And for every reason to pick the Detroit Red Wings--including Sergei Fedorov’s stellar play and Brendan Shanahan’s fifth season with at least 40 goals--there are reasons for caution. Those include the sprained knee that idled team captain Steve Yzerman the last four games and the injured cheekbone defenseman Chris Chelios suffered last Friday.

The same questions apply to Colorado, which won its last eight games but will play several weeks without center Peter Forsberg, who separated his right shoulder in a meaningless game last Friday. Even St. Louis hasn’t been immune. The Blues, who rode an exceptional team defense and the spectacular goaltending of Roman Turek to the NHL’s best record, will open without top scorer Pavol Demitra, who has a concussion. In addition, Turek must prove himself in his NHL playoff debut.

“The four best teams are St. Louis, Dallas, Detroit and Colorado,” said Terry Crisp, who coached the Calgary Flames to the Stanley Cup in 1989 and is now a broadcaster. “All four of those teams have a good solid defensive system in place. They can shut you down. That makes them so much more complete than the other teams.

“It’s not like you can say, ‘It’s Dallas’ offense against St. Louis’ defense.’ All these teams are so evenly matched. Normally you’d say, ‘Their goaltending is a question.’ Now you say, ‘Is Turek going to stay hot? Will Belfour go cold? Is [Colorado’s] Patrick Roy the Patrick Roy of old?’ ”

The picture is similarly fuzzy in the East.

The Philadelphia Flyers erased a 15-point deficit and overtook the New Jersey Devils for first place in the Atlantic Division and first in the East, but there’s no telling how rookie Brian Boucher will handle his playoff starting assignment. There’s also Eric Lindros’ absence for the first round. Will his criticism of the team’s treatment of his concussion fracture the Flyers’ unity or bond them with General Manager Bob Clarke, who stripped Lindros of the captaincy? Coach Roger Neilson is still recovering from cancer treatment but may return for the second round--if the Flyers get there.

The Devils are impressive on paper, but they’re 4-4 since Larry Robinson replaced Robbie Ftorek as coach. The Washington Capitals are 32-10-7-1 since Christmas, but they were 1-3 against their first-round playoff opponent, the Pittsburgh Penguins. The Capitals have won only one of five playoff series against the Penguins. The defending East champion Sabres squeezed into the playoffs on the last day of the season, but Hasek is playing well enough to carry them deep into June.

“Right now, Philly is being maligned for bad taxes and bad taxi drivers and everything else because of Eric Lindros and Bobby Clarke,” Crisp said. “New Jersey made a bold move, and we’ll have to see how that works out. Washington was dead and buried before Christmas, and we were having funeral services. Suddenly, Ron Wilson and his guys are up there, and they have a good defensive system in place, so they don’t have to put one in. I don’t understand New Jersey, but I like the team they have and [goalie Martin] Brodeur.

“You look around, and you see the teams that are bona fide contenders are not one-dimensional.”

So many dimensions, so many legitimate contenders.

“This is one of those years that you can throw just about any team’s name in the hat because I don’t think there’s anyone who’s hitting on all cylinders,” said Doug Wilson, the former Norris trophy-winner who is director of pro development for the San Jose Sharks. “Everybody has a little chink in their armor.

“What’s always true is you have to have depth. There’s no way to get through this marathon without it.”

Three series start Wednesday and the remaining five will start Thursday. Series are best of seven.

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EASTERN CONFERENCE

First-Round Matchups

No. 1 Philadelphia vs. No. 8 Buffalo

No. 2 Washington vs. No. 7 Pittsburgh

No. 3 Toronto vs. No. 6 Ottawa

No. 4 New Jersey vs. No. 5 Florida

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WESTERN CONFERENCE

First-Round Matchups

No. 1 St. Louis vs. No. 8 San Jose

No. 2 Dallas vs. No. 7 Edmonton

No. 3 Colorado vs. No. 6 Phoenix

No. 4 Detroit vs. No. 5 Kings

MORE COVERAGE

NO WALL STREET JOURNAL PREDICTIONS

Scoring leader Jaromir Jagr may have the Art Ross Trophy in his pocket, but the rest of the season’s individual award winners are nearly as unpredictable as the eventual Stanley Cup champion.

Page 7

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MATCHUPS

A capsulized view of each of the playoff pairings in Eastern and Western conferences reveals some intriguing series, and don’t be surprised to see at least a few favorites fall.

Page 6