Bush TV Ad Won’t Air in California, But Stay Tuned

As Texas Gov. George W. Bush launches the first big advertising campaign of the general election in 21 states, California television viewers will be left in the dark.

The move calls to mind a familiar problem for California Republicans, who felt snubbed when the last two GOP presidential tickets considered the state too favorable for Democrats and too expensive for a risky investment.

This time, however, state Republicans say Bush has placated their concerns by committing to a three-pronged strategy of local appearances, local fund-raising and, in the near future, local-market television advertising.

“We have a well-thought-out, well-designed plan,” said state Sen. James L. Brulte (R-Rancho Cucamonga), the finance chairman of the California Republican Party. “And so far, what we’ve been doing has worked.”

The strategy will help California Republicans in key state and congressional races that might be threatened if the presidential ticket abandons the state.

But Bruce Cain, head of UC Berkeley’s Institute of Governmental Studies, said if Bush were serious about winning the state--as opposed to winning over state Republicans--he would have bought television ads in the state this week.

That would allow Bush to capitalize on some of the momentum he gained coming out of the Republican convention in Philadelphia, when a California poll showed that he had closed the gap with Gore to within a few percentage points.

“To put that in perspective, it’s even more of a sign that they don’t care too much about [winning] California,” Cain said.

Bush officials said their decision to avoid California television advertising--a campaign’s single most important weapon--is due to the absence of any Democratic effort in the state.

Gore officials plan to begin a national ad campaign as soon as today. Aides said privately that the ads will run in 18 states--but not California.

Bush officials said they will advertise in California. But they said the state is simply too big and too expensive to wage a full-scale ad war this early.

“It’s only a question of at what point is it reasonable to pay for the ads,” said Ari Fleischer, a Bush spokesman.

Republican sources said that Bush is planning to run ads within the next 30 days in at least some markets in California, including possibly the Central Valley and the Central Coast, both rich in independent and swing voters.

In addition, they said, Bush campaign officials have assured local Republicans that Bush will continue to make personal appearances in closely fought state and congressional races, such as in the Glendale area, where Rep. James E. Rogan is battling to retain his seat and Republican Paul Zee is fighting for a California Senate seat.

Bush visited the Central Coast and Northern California the week after his nomination. His running mate, Dick Cheney, is appearing in the San Gabriel Valley today and will go on to the Central Valley and Central Coast later in the week. Bush himself is scheduled to return for another swing through California in early September.

Republicans also said Bush has bought goodwill by raising $5 million for the state Republican Party.

To any Republicans fearful that Bush lacks a commitment to the state, his local representatives cite this year’s GOP rallying cry: Help is on the way. “We have to allocate resources carefully,” said Gerald Parsky, the Bush-Cheney state campaign chairman. “You should stay tuned in terms of how resources will be spent.”

The latest Bush ads began running Monday in 21 states, including traditional Democratic strongholds like West Virginia and Oregon. So far, the decision to omit California has raised few signs of dissent among top California Republicans.

“It doesn’t cause me any concern at all,” said Assembly Republican Leader Scott Baugh (R-Huntington Beach). “I don’t think you can look at one snapshot in time and determine if the governor [Bush] is going to compete in California.”

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Times staff writers Carl Ingram, Julie Tamaki and Jeff Leeds contributed to this story.