And Now for Some Good News--and a Colossal ‘If’

I have a theory about traffic in Los Angeles. Call it Rector’s Onerous Automotive Diatribe, or ROAD.

One day, a new resident, let’s call him Bruce, will move into new digs in the San Fernando Valley. After spending a busy weekend getting his furnishings into his new home, Bruce will arise on Monday morning, ready to drive to work in downtown Los Angeles.

Alone in his Cadillac Colossus SUV, he will inch up the onramp onto the Ventura Freeway where he will muscle his way into lane two. At precisely that moment, traffic will come to a dead halt on every freeway system from San Luis Obispo to the Mexican border. And won’t move. Forever.

Our friend Bruce, you see, will be the straw that broke the camel’s back, the one last vehicle that overwhelmed our transportation system, causing The Final Gridlock that for sheer inconvenience will rival an Old Testament plague.

Sound farfetched? Not if you read the recent Metropolitan Transportation Authority report on traffic in Los Angeles.

The way the MTA sees it, we’ll need solutions that will cost billions of dollars just to keep Los Angeles barely moving during the next 25 years when, they figure, average freeway speeds will drop from 34 mph to 20 mph. With a population that is expected to soar to 13.1 million, the MTA says we’ll need expanded bus systems, light-rail lines, carpool lanes, subway extensions, even double-decked freeways. Some concepts foresee blasting tunnels through the Santa Monica and San Gabriel mountains.

To reiterate, that’s just to stay even.

Or as author Alan Deitz once observed, “After large expenditures of federal, state and county funds; after much confusion generated by detours and roadblocks; after greatly annoying the surrounding population with noise, dust and fumes, the previously existing traffic jam is relocated by one half-mile.”

There is a ray of pure golden sunlight, however, breaking through these leaden skies.

Gov. Gray Davis has made available nearly half a billion dollars for transit improvements in the Valley. That’s right, half a billion just for us. And it’s right there on the table.

Primary among the projects to be funded is an east-west busway along Chandler Boulevard that would connect Warner Center with North Hollywood, in addition to a north-south route. Additional plans call for carpool lanes on the Golden State and San Diego freeways and improvements to the 101 / 405 interchange.

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But like wishing upon the monkey’s paw, these gifts come with a curse.

First, there’s time. The money for these improvements comes from general tax revenues, money that could go for other priorities if there isn’t action soon. There are as many special interests competing for a piece of the budgetary pie as there are taillights on the 405 at 5 p.m. The urgency isn’t lost on Assembly Speaker Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks), who, quick to turn a phrase, said, “We can’t miss the bus on this.”

Then there’s the MTA and Caltrans, names often synonymous with bureaucratic inertia. Hertzberg, in fact, is concerned enough about Caltrans that he has warned that he would rely on state auditors, the Little Hoover Commission or state oversight officials to make sure projects are on a fast track.

Also, there’s the Tower of Babel syndrome. No single politician or agency is responsible for all transportation solutions. Somebody has to demonstrate the political will to lead the way out of this bureaucratic thicket.

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Finally, there is the NIMBY (not in my backyard) factor. The drumbeat has already been heard in the Valley where Orthodox Jews living along a proposed high-speed bus route have complained, “Sure, they’ll mitigate the impact by building fences, sound barriers and redirecting local traffic; however, in the end the community will still be split right down the middle with our own Berlin Wall.”

So are we at the dawn of a new era? Or will we all be commuting on Razor scooters soon?

Talk to Hertzberg, a man who always sees the glass as half full, and he is predictably optimistic.

He describes the area’s political leadership as very focused on making these improvements happen, adding that he has grown “tired of talking for a dozen years” about traffic.

Hertzberg even has a plan to reroute the bus route so it will bypass the Orthodox Jewish community in North Hollywood.

And just in case his considerable clout isn’t enough, he promises to use the “full power of the Legislature” if necessary to make sure this train moves down the track.

Richard Katz, the former assemblyman who has been involved in Valley traffic issues for years, agrees. He says that the beauty of the governor’s package is that it does a lot of small things to improve the traffic situation rather than attempt the mega, monorail-down-the-Ventura-Freeway solution.

And Katz, while conceding that this won’t return us to the Valley of the 1960s, believes it will work. He also points out that the passage of Proposition 35, which paved the way for government agencies to give private firms a bigger share of their engineering and design workload, will expedite these projects even further.

Even Caltrans officials believe that because the improvements are being paid for by general funds, there are fewer strings attached so projects can be fast-tracked.

What it all boils down to, then, is this: After years of political paralysis, of Buck Rogers fantasies about maglev systems, there is the very real prospect of alternative commuting resources for Valley residents in the next several years that will really work. There will be carpool lanes and busways and advanced automatic signal programs, all designed to end mind-numbing commutes amid never-ending congestion.

All it needs is one more element, one that can’t be legislated: citizen participation.

All the billions from Sacramento, all the political arm-twisting and fast tracking, all the projects in the world won’t mean a thing if people are unwilling to give public transportation or car-pooling a chance.

As Robert Sassaman, director of the Caltrans district that encompasses Los Angeles and Ventura counties, said, “You can’t really build yourself out of congestion.”

The hearings are scheduled to start next month. Let’s wish them a speedy and successful conclusion.

If not, we will be doomed to be sitting in our cars on that infamous day in the not-too-distant future when Bruce pulls onto the freeway.