Is Jeb Bush Politically Scarred?

While the political hurricane roared through this state capital, Gov. Jeb Bush struggled to stay in the calm of the eye.

But it wasn’t just the fate of his older brother, Texas Gov. George W. Bush, at stake in Florida’s presidential election fiasco. It was his own.

Democrats itching to regain power at the statehouse say the popular Republican governor may have damaged his prospects for reelection in 2002. Even state GOP leaders admit he has lost ground, especially among African American voters.

“Jeb’s aura of invincibility is gone,” said Florida Democratic Party Chairman Bob Poe.

But no Democrat with statewide stature has signaled any interest in challenging Bush. And strategists on both sides say he has plenty of time to recover from what may be short-term trouble.

“I’m not convinced he’s been mortally wounded by all this,” said Jim Kane, chief pollster at the independent Florida Voter Poll.

He Kept His Distance From Brother’s Woes

Upon returning to Tallahassee from his family’s harrowing election night vigil in Texas, Bush distanced himself publicly from his brother’s political combat.

The scene last Thursday morning at the governor’s office in the Florida Capitol was typical.

Upstairs, state legislators debated a Republican plan designed to ensure that George W. Bush would win the White House. In courtrooms just east of the Capitol, two trials threatened to swing the election to Vice President Al Gore by throwing out Republican absentee ballots.

In a courthouse just west of the Capitol, the state Supreme Court held a historic hearing on the election dispute. Nearly everyone in Tallahassee who couldn’t fit in the courtroom seemed to watch it on television.

Where was Jeb Bush?

At that very moment, as the political storm raged on all sides, he staged his only public event of the day: He welcomed the arrival of his office Christmas tree. Seeming to have not a care in the world, he cooed at a baby cradled in a woman’s arms: “Ahhhh.”

Bush’s advisors hope that, because he was able to lie low during the election mess, his role in it will be all but forgotten by the time he’s up for reelection.

“Two years from now, I doubt very seriously whether Florida will care much about whether there’s a hanging chad--as opposed to whether their kid’s education is improving,” said Tre Evers, a Florida GOP strategist and fund-raiser for the Bush brothers.

Yet Jeb Bush has not been entirely uninvolved.

Six Bush staff members took leaves from their state jobs to assist in Republican ballot recount operations across the state. Bush also raced to sign a certificate formally naming his state’s 25 electors for George W. Bush, becoming one of the first governors to do so.

Most important, he openly encouraged fellow Republicans in the Florida Legislature to pass a measure affirming a Bush slate of electors.

To some Democrats, it’s clear that Jeb Bush has played an important behind-the-scenes role.

“Floridians don’t believe for a minute that he doesn’t have anything to do with what’s going on,” state Sen. Kendrick Meek, a Miami-Dade County Democrat, said before the U.S. Supreme Court ruling Tuesday cleared the way for George W. Bush to become president.

For Jeb Bush, analysts say, such perceptions are the most harmful consequence of the election impasse, but perhaps not for long.

“There’s still two years for stuff to die down,” said Susan MacManus, a political scientist at the University of South Florida.

As president, George W. Bush could “do great things for Florida” to help his brother, said state Republican Chairman Al Cardenas. And as a nationally known governor of a large state, Jeb Bush’s fund-raising power would be hard for any opponent to match.

But for the moment, there is no opponent.

A top contender, Democrats say, could be state Atty. Gen. Bob Butterworth, a consumer rights advocate known for taking on the tobacco industry and fighting to lower insurance and electricity rates. But how interested is Butterworth in the idea of challenging Bush?

“He’s pretty much pooh-poohed it,” said Butterworth spokesman Joe Bizzaro.

The other Democrat viewed as a potentially strong candidate against Bush is Bob Graham, a former governor of Florida. “Graham would clean his clock,” Poe said.

But Graham’s office released a statement saying he is “happy with his current job” as a member of the U.S. Senate.

The lack of visible opposition has heartened the Bush camp.

“You can’t beat somebody with nobody,” said former state Republican Party Chairman Thomas Slade.

But Slade conceded that Bush faces another, more worrisome problem: “We have taken a major, major hit in the African American community.”

10% of Black Voters Backed Him in ’98

To be sure, Bush was never very popular among African Americans, who make up about 14% of the state electorate. Only 10% of black voters cast ballots for Bush in the 1998 gubernatorial race, exit polls found.

Last year, Bush infuriated some minority voters with his One Florida plan ending affirmative action in state contracting and university admissions.

Meek and another black legislator, Tony Hill, drew national attention with a sit-in at the governor’s office, and thousands of protesters gathered at the Capitol.

George W. Bush, who was trounced by Gore among African American voters in Florida, can thank his brother for the sharp rise in black turnout, political analysts say.

Voting machine malfunctions and other troubles at the polls in black precincts have only widened the rift between Jeb Bush and African Americans, they say.

“Florida has become the new Selma--the whole state,” Meek said. “Jeb is a big part of the reason why it’s being called Selma.”

But who will run against him?

“I have no idea,” Meek said. “That’s the million-dollar question.”