Awaiting the Nominations: Box-Office Cliffhanger

For “The Cider House Rules,” Tuesday could be a make-or-break day.

Inclusion in the Academy Award nominations for best picture could mean all the difference at the box office for “Cider House” and other films hoping to become mainstream hits.

Like another best picture hopeful, “Being John Malkovich,” “Cider House” has grossed about $21 million so far. But the distributors for both films (Miramax for “Cider House,” USA Films for “Malkovich”) say there’s plenty more box-office gold to be mined if they can manage to crack the winner’s circle of the five best picture nominees.

They’re not alone. Executives at several other studios are holding their breath waiting for Tuesday’s announcement. With at least three of the five slots for best picture very much in play, making the final cut could mean upward of $10 million in additional revenue just in the U.S. and much more than that abroad for the nominees in the top category.

Miramax senior executive Mark Gill says a best picture nomination for “Cider House” could make “a substantial difference.” He cites another Miramax release, 1992’s “The Crying Game,” as an example of the potential boost: Before the Oscar nominations, “Crying Game” had grossed $21 million. A best picture nomination fueled another $42 million at the box office.

The Oscar bounce could also help with international marketing. “The difference overseas could be gigantic,” Gill notes. With a string of recent best picture winners, including last year’s “Shakespeare in Love,” Miramax is particularly adept at cranking up the Oscar machine once the nominations are announced.

The millions of dollars the major studios spend every year to promote potential best picture qualifiers has less do with vanity and more and more to do with dollars and cents. Even for films that have pretty much run their course in theaters here, being cited as one of the top five films of the year--not to mention winning the coveted prize--often gives films a financial boost. As a marketing tool, a big splashy headline boasting “Seven Academy Award nominations including best picture” can be a new lease on life in theaters. Last year, for example, “Saving Private Ryan,” which had already grossed $190 million, added another $25 million in revenue after nominations were announced. “Shakespeare in Love” did even better, adding another $50 million after the announcements.

One of this year’s sure-bet nominees, “American Beauty,” could bring in at least $15 million atop the $75 million it has already collected--and even more if it wins--according to Jim Tharp and Terry Press, DreamWorks’ respective distribution and marketing heads.

DreamWorks has already scheduled a national re-release of the film for Friday. More importantly, the film is just opening overseas and the Oscar announcements may well spell the difference between a hit and a major hit in the foreign market.

However, for another likely best picture nominee, “The Insider,” the prognosis is not as positive. According to Disney distribution executive Chuck Viane, year-end kudos (“Insider” was named best picture by the Los Angeles Film Critics Assn.) have not had an appreciable impact on the film’s disappointing box-office history--about $28 million to date--but it should result in a stronger showing overseas. Actually winning the best picture prize would make a much bigger difference for “The Insider,” Viane says. “The nominations would mean a little, the award would mean a lot,” he says.

The three other slots are pretty much up for grabs. Barring a major upset, the films most seriously in contention are “The Sixth Sense,” “The Cider House Rules,” “The Talented Mr. Ripley,” “The Hurricane” and “Being John Malkovich.” The dark horses are “The Green Mile” and “Topsy-Turvy.” With the exception of “The Sixth Sense,” which is already one of the top-10 grossing films of all time worldwide (about $580 million to date), there’s hay to be made if any of the other films cops a best picture nomination. “Sixth Sense’s” primary gain would be in home video sometime in spring, where it’s already expected to be a slam dunk.

In the case of “The Hurricane,” a nomination could mean the difference between a good box-office performance and a stellar one. Says Marc Shmuger, marketing chief for Universal Pictures, which is releasing the movie in the U.S.: “The movie will definitely benefit. It’s a film that we knew would take a while to play out. Academy recognition will keep it relevant longer with the moviegoer and could have a snowball effect.”

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A Golden Globe win for Denzel Washington as best actor was immediately reflected in the film’s grosses. The day after the Golden Globe ceremonies, the film rose to the No. 1 slot midweek and stayed there all week. The following weekend, “Hurricane” dropped only 12%, despite the devastation of Sunday business because of the Super Bowl. “Hurricane” has grossed about $37 million to date, mainly from an older audience. Academy recognition, says Shmuger, will serve as a lure for the younger demographic. Disney, which will distribute the film overseas, stands to gain from the Oscar nominations as well, according to the studio’s international distribution head Mark Zoradi, especially given the limitations of its uniquely African American story, which might otherwise lose something in the translation.

“Being John Malkovich,” a USA Films release, still has “miles to go” at the box office, according to company principals Russell Schwartz and Scott Greenstein. A best picture nomination would be the tiger in the film’s tank, the kind of mainstream approbation that would send a message to moviegoers who have hesitated to see the quirky comedy, they say, particularly in suburban areas and small towns. Most of the film’s roughly $21-million gross to date has come from upscale, sophisticated audiences. “The nomination could boost the film’s gross by as much as 50%,” says Schwartz, which is what happened last year when his film “Elizabeth” landed in the best picture category.

“The Talented Mr. Ripley” is at about $76 million in the U.S. and is pretty much played out in the domestic market, according to Miramax’s Gill. A best picture nomination will only push the take somewhat higher. But the film stands to substantially benefit Miramax, which is releasing the film overseas (Paramount distributed it in the U.S.), which is why the studio has held the international release for Oscar season, a strategy that worked like a charm last year with “Shakespeare in Love” (which Miramax had in the U.S. and Universal released overseas).

The same logic would apply to a dark horse like “The Green Mile,” which is already past $120 million. The Oscar nomination would inch it somewhat higher here and help the film even more overseas, where its star, Tom Hanks, already boasts a substantial marquee value. Lastly, if Mike Leigh’s “Topsy-Turvy” were to pull an upset (New York film critics anointed the Gilbert & Sullivan bio their best picture), it could have a “staggering effect” on the art-house film, USA’s Greenstein says. “The film is still virtually untapped,” Schwartz says, and is playing only in a handful of major cities with a gross of $2.3 million to date.

Regardless of the immediate gains for the lucky five, says Shmuger, a best picture nomination is forever. “It will continue to have a residual effect on the movie. It becomes part of the film’s legacy.”