52% Oppose El Toro Airport, Orange County Poll Finds

For the first time in four years, support for an international airport at El Toro Marine Corps Air Station has eroded, according to a new poll, raising questions about the outcome of one of the most controversial land-use debates in Orange County history.

The poll, commissioned by the Times Orange County Edition, found that a majority of county voters--52%--now oppose a new airport at the converted Marine base. In a similar poll done in February 1999, 42% opposed the airport.

The poll results come just three weeks before voters decide the fate of a key anti-airport ballot measure: Measure F.

The outcome of that measure also seems far from conclusive, according to the poll. Overall, 56% of likely voters said they support the anti-airport measure, with 18% opposed. However, a sizable portion of the electorate--26%--remain undecided about Measure F, which requires a simple majority to pass.

The poll findings set the stage for an all-out battle by both sides of the airport issue as the March 7 election approaches.

“The airport has lost its luster,” said Cheryl Katz of Baldassare Associates, which conducted the poll of 800 voters, including 512 likely voters, between Feb. 9 and 12. “The Measure F campaign is focusing people on the shortcomings of the airport.”

Airport backers conceded Monday that the other side had gained ground, in part, they said, due to a heavy marketing campaign. But, airport proponents said, the fight was far from over.

“Misinformation eventually takes its toll, but I don’t believe for a moment that it’s a hopeless cause,” said Bruce Nestande, chairman of the pro-airport Citizens for Jobs and the Economy. “Given the amount of money that has been spent [against the airport], that they haven’t put it out of reach is significant.”

The biggest--and perhaps most surprising--swing in airport sentiment occurred in North County, where support for the proposed airport traditionally has been strongest.

The poll suggests that many voters there are less convinced than ever about the need for the airport. And that uncertainty raises doubts about how they will vote March 7 on Measure F.

The measure effectively would halt airport planning. It would require approval by two-thirds of voters before the county could build airports, large jails and hazardous waste landfills near homes.

Measure F has been fought primarily by South County residents, aided by upward of $10 million in anti-airport messages financed by South County cities. The cities cannot by law advocate a position on Measure F, but through cable television advertisements and direct mail have pushed a non-aviation alternative for the Marine base. Some observers credit the apparent shift in airport opinions to a campaign begun months ago by airport opponents, who have been stressing home safety, traffic and pollution concerns.

The latest poll findings underscore just how conflicted Orange County voters are when it comes to the proposed airport at El Toro, easily one of the county’s most complicated and controversial planning issues ever.

Voters have twice endorsed the proposed airport, and the March ballot initiative marks the third time opponents will try to stop the project.

The current ballot measure only complicates matters further. A “yes” vote on Measure F is a “no” vote for the airport. Conversely, a “no” vote on Measure F means airport planning will continue uninterrupted.

Voters were more inclined to oppose the measure when they realized that it would stop the airport, the poll found. Opposition to Measure F rose to 30% among likely voters when this was made apparent.

Some observers said the poll results indicated a larger anti-county government movement afoot.

Voters throughout Orange County are rejecting an overbearing county planning process attempting to build an intrusive airport that most residents don’t believe is necessary, said Yes on F leader Jeffrey Metzger.

“There is an overall sense that the county is trying to shove something down the throats of citizens,” Metzger said. “Their plan is not persuasive. It’ll transfer to victory on March 7.”

Poll respondent Brenda Fowler, 53, a hazardous waste mechanic in Los Angeles, agreed. She’s voting for Measure F because a glut of public facilities near her home already produce too much noise and traffic. Forcing county officials to get a two-thirds vote first would keep her neighborhood from being besieged, she said.

Poll respondent Phillip Biles of Anaheim, a 62-year-old electronics engineer, believes otherwise. The opportunity to build another airport in Orange County is too good to pass up, he said.

“The opposition to the airport seems to be primarily ‘Not in my backyard,’ ” he said. “They don’t want it near them and only want to put the airport somewhere else.”