High-Flying Davis Now Must Face Sophomore Jinx

OK, so Gray Davis had a terrific first year as governor. That’s history. Old century. The question now is, will Davis’ good fortune continue through 2000? Or will he fall victim to the sophomore jinx that has plagued practically every governor for 40 years.

Pat Brown and Pete Wilson were permanently scarred by the second year curse.

Critics tagged Brown a “tower of jelly” for trying to avoid sending “Red Light Bandit” Caryl Chessman to the gas chamber; then a “bumbler” for failing to deliver California’s delegation to Adlai Stevenson at the 1960 Democratic convention, as promised. Wilson stubbornly got mired in a summer-long budget stalemate while the state operated on IOUs, and he was hammered in every 1992 political endeavor, including a welfare reform initiative.

Ronald Reagan and Jerry Brown succumbed to Potomac fever. Reagan suffered only briefly, but Brown never recovered. After having spent just one year and change in the governor’s office, Reagan ran halfheartedly for president in 1968, looking foolish; Brown got a quick high and was entertaining in the 1976 primaries, but forever was branded as an ambitious opportunist not focused on his real job.

Davis knows better. He swore off a 2000 race long ago. Still, as a popular governor of the nation’s most populous state, he’d be a natural pick for vice president.

“No chance,” Davis told me. “I intend to serve out this term. I spent 23 years trying to climb this mountain we call California and I’m not coming down voluntarily.”

Davis may well position himself to run for president in 2004 if he wins reelection in 2002 and a Republican is occupying the White House.

But first there’s 2000 to hurdle. In their sophomore years, governors become burdened by enemies. Scandals ooze to the surface. And they’re forced to make tricky political decisions.

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For example, Davis now is confronted by an anti-gay marriage initiative on the March 7 ballot. Proposition 22 decrees that only marriages between a man and a woman are valid in California. While he favors “domestic partnerships” that provide legal rights for same-sex couples, Davis opposes gay marriages.

“I believe that marriage is meant to be between a man and a woman,” the governor says. “That’s how I was raised to believe. Virtually every religion takes that point of view.”

But Davis politically cannot support the ballot measure and be associated with its right-wing backers. So he’ll no doubt oppose Prop. 22. “I’ve always been against wedge issues that divide the state--issues that pit Californians against one another for no discernible purpose,” he says, noting that same-sex marriages currently are illegal in California.

Typically, Davis is headed toward a middle course: opposing the anti-gay marriage initiative, while opposing gay marriages.

Davis will continue along a centrist path in his State of the State Address on Wednesday and new budget proposal next Monday, sticking to successful 1999 themes. “Second verse, same as the first,” says his political advisor, Garry South.

There’ll be more education reforms--probably financial rewards for high-achieving students and teachers, and intense recruiting and training of future instructors.

He also is likely to propose some pro-business tax breaks--including credits for research and development, and purchase of manufactured goods.

Again, Republicans will get more than they’d normally expect from a Democratic governor, and Democrats will get enough to keep them in line. Davis is blessed with a $3-billion budget surplus to mollify potential rebels.

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“I’d worry about a little lethargy setting in,” says Steve Merksamer, who was Gov. George Deukmejian’s chief of staff. “The problem with having a terrific first year is that your people can get cocky.”

Deukmejian mostly escaped the sophomore jinx, but even he suffered a scandal when some economic development officials were caught stealing money. Merksamer says there are bound to be scandals brewing in the Davis administration--besides the Medi-Cal fraud already being investigated--and the governor will be judged by how he handles them.

South also notes, “this being California, some natural phenomenon could blindside you.” A drought or a flood or an earthquake.

Disasters, however, can be image-boosters. Davis probably already has a gubernatorial windbreaker and a hard hat at hand, and a helicopter standing by to rush him to the photo op.

Davis is more likely than most to avoid the sophomore jinx. The economy’s humming. Term limits have increased his power over legislative adversaries. He has learned from watching other governors stumble. And his style is cautious moderation, not risk-taking.