NFC Today

By STEVE SPRINGER

Jan. 15, 2000 12 AM PT

* Story line: If the Washington Redskins were sailing full speed ahead into Tampa Bay, buoyed by the league’s second-best offense and the momentum of last week’s 27-13 opening-round victory over the Detroit Lions, they might have had a real chance. Unfortunately for them, they are limping into port, badly in need of repairs. Doing most of the limping is running back Stephen Davis, who is expected to play despite a sprained left ankle and sprained right knee. How well he can play behind a banged-up offensive line that will be missing tackle Andy Heck (torn hamstring) remains to be seen. All this should make for a long afternoon against a Buccaneer defense that was the best in the NFC and has the added advantage of a first-round bye. If Tampa Bay didn’t have such a powerful defense, it wouldn’t even be here. The offense, led by rookie quarterback Shaun King, doesn’t scare anybody. But with the straight-ahead pounding of running back Mike Alstott and the elusive running of Warrick Dunn behind him, King has done an admirable job of keeping the mistakes to a minimum and hitting crucial passes when needed.

* Key offensive stat: The Redskins score a touchdown 59.6% of the time they are in the red zone, behind only the St. Louis Rams in the NFC.

* Key defensive stat: If Davis is ineffective and the Redskins are forced to concentrate on the passing game, quarterback Brad Johnson will find himself trying to break through against the second-best pass defense in the NFL, one that gave up only 179.6 yards a game.

* Potential star of the game: Tampa Bay defensive tackle Warren Sapp. The Associated Press defensive player of the year is the unquestioned leader of the Buccaneers’ most dominating unit. He had 12 1/2 sacks in the regular season and more are anticipated today when Johnson can expect to receive a few welcome-to-town hugs from the onrushing Sapp.

* But keep an eye on: Alstott. The Tampa Bay runner is not quick, he’s not shifty and the defense can usually figure out which way he’s going. Stopping him, however, is another matter. Alstott led the team in yardage (949) and touchdowns (nine).

* History says: The last time the Buccaneers advanced beyond this round was 1979, when they reached the championship game. That team also had a great defense, led by Lee Roy Selmon. As could be the case this year, the Buccaneers faced the Rams in the NFC title game, losing, 9-0.

* Injury update: Will Davis really be able to play or is he planning on doing a Willis Reed impersonation, suiting up to inspire his teammates? Heck definitely won’t play, but center Cory Raymer is expected to struggle through despite a rib injury. The Buccaneers are in good shape, their biggest concern being the tender hamstring of cornerback Donnie Abraham.

* Line: Tampa Bay by 5.

* And the winner is: Tampa Bay. Home teams have an advantage. Powerful defenses have an advantage. Home teams with powerful defenses playing injury-depleted offenses have a sure victory.

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NFC Today The Logs WASHINGTON (10-6, 1-0)

Washington Opponent

35: Dallas: 41

50: At N.Y. Giants: 21

27: At N.Y. Jets: 20

38: Carolina: 36

24: At Arizona: 10

20: At Dallas: 38

48: Chicago: 22

17: Buffalo: 34

28: At Philadelphia: 35