NEW YEAR, NEW CENTURY, NEW REASONS TO LEAVE THE HOUSE

A year ago, everyone in Hollywood predicted the obvious about 1999. The new “Star Wars” would rule the box office, and Austin Powers would “shag” his way to a blockbuster. But scary movies about kids who get lost in the woods or see ghosts as breakout hits? Who knew?

This year, the same geniuses who failed to predict the humongous success of movies like “The Blair Witch Project” and “The Sixth Sense”--in other words, pundits like us--are at it again. The images in our cinematic crystal ball are fuzzy, but if you squint and use your imagination, a few patterns emerge. Moviegoers should get ready for a lot of what worked last year (comedies and thrillers) and a lot of what worked a few years earlier (sequels and prequels). And just to avoid seeming too repetitive, Hollywood will be throwing a few curves.

Consider this: Among the strongest contenders for the year’s biggest action movie is one starring not a beefy hunk but three vivacious women (“Charlie’s Angels,” with Drew Barrymore, Lucy Liu and Cameron Diaz). And this: Robert De Niro, itinerant tough guy, is shaping up to be one of the year’s busiest comic actors--”Taxi Driver’s” Travis Bickle has morphed into Fearless Leader from “The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle.”

For the first time in years, Tom Hanks will have only one movie, Robert Zemeckis’ “Cast Away.” But he’ll be two people: a doughy guy who gets stranded on a desert island and the lanky guy he becomes after three years without takeout food (the movie has stopped shooting to allow Hanks to lose 40 pounds). Interestingly, it’s Zemeckis with two movies this year--”Cast Away” and the supernatural thriller “What Lies Beneath.”

If you’re one of the nine or 10 people in America who flocked to see downbeat dramatic fare in 1999, you’re going to go wanting in 2000.

“The one thing you’ll find absent on our schedule are serious issue-oriented dramas. Those are the toughest movies right now,” said Columbia Pictures’ new Chairwoman Amy Pascal, who is unveiling a decidedly more muscular slate of films than last year’s. “Look at the adult films that made money last year--’Bone Collector,’ ‘Sixth Sense,’ ‘Double Jeopardy.’ One thing that’s for sure: When you’re making adult films, they better be thrillers or they better not cost you a lot of money.”

For sheer goofiness, meanwhile, the 21st century looks very promising. Universal Pictures’ lineup is particularly comedy-heavy, including “Dr. Seuss’ How the Grinch Stole Christmas” (Jim Carrey), “Nutty Professor II: The Klumps” (Eddie Murphy), “Isn’t She Great” (Bette Midler as Jacqueline Susann) and “Meet the Parents” (Ben Stiller as a nerdy guy who encounters the scariest potential father-in-law on Earth: De Niro).

“More and more, when people’s time is at such a premium, if you’re going to tell a downer story, it has to hit the bull’s-eye perfectly. The bar is higher,” said Universal Pictures Chairman Stacey Snider. Though Snider admits that Universal’s emphasis on laughs came less by design than evolution, she thinks it’s a winning strategy. “It doesn’t mean any one title won’t fail, but it’s reassuring in a way.”

*

In corporate terms, practically every studio in town has something to prove this year. Sony’s lackluster performance in 1999 only bounced back recently, with “Stuart Little”--a fact that Pascal hopes to address with a bunch of tent-pole event pictures that were lacking last year. She’s counterbalancing so-called chick flicks like the party-girl-in-rehab dramatic comedy “28 Days” (with Sandra Bullock) with raw sinew: Paul Verhoeven’s “The Hollow Man,” for example, about a scientist (Kevin Bacon) who makes himself invisible, the mountaineering thriller “Vertical Limit” and “The Sixth Day,” in which Arnold Schwarzenegger comes home from work to find he has been replaced by a clone.

Universal, determined to build on its first-ever year with three $100-million-plus pictures, is banking on Julia Roberts, the star of one of its top-grossing 1999 films (“Notting Hill”). Roberts stars in director Steven Soderbergh’s drawn-from-the-headlines “Erin Brockovich,” playing a gutsy divorced woman with no legal training who signed 600 plaintiffs to sue a major public utility (and won them $333 million).

DreamWorks SKG will seek to make more inroads into animation (releasing two ‘toons in 2000), but it will also try to build on the momentum of the critically acclaimed “American Beauty,” releasing 11 live-action films (its most ever). Among its best hopes for success: “The Road to El Dorado,” a PG-rated animated action buddy comedy that DreamWorks principal Jeffrey Katzenberg compared to “what Hope and Crosby used to do in their ‘Road’ pictures,” and an ambitious “Ben-Hur”-like live-action epic (a joint venture with Universal): Ridley Scott’s “Gladiator.”

“It may never be possible for us to ever match people’s expectations, but this is the year in which many of our hopes and dreams are going to be realized for DreamWorks,” Katzenberg said of the 6-year-old studio. “It’s time for ‘the lady’ to sing. Let’s hope it’s on key.”

At Walt Disney Studios, Chairman Joe Roth has done again what he does best: providing something for everybody, from event pictures (the sequel “102 Dalmatians” and “Mission to Mars”) to animation (“The Tigger Movie” and “Dinosaur”) to smaller fare such as actor Edward Norton’s directing debut, “Keeping the Faith,” and new movies from the Coen brothers and M. Night Shyamalan (whose services now go for $10 million after the shocking success of “The Sixth Sense,” which he wrote and directed).

Twentieth Century Fox has several big stars on deck for 2000--Carrey (as a state trooper whose split personalities fall for the same woman in the Farrelly brothers’ “Me, Myself and Irene”), Hanks (“Cast Away,” a joint venture with DreamWorks), Leonardo DiCaprio (in director Danny Boyle’s “The Beach”) and Tom Cruise (if his collaboration with Steven Spielberg, “Minority Report,” comes together in time). It also has director Bryan Singer’s comic-book adaptation of “X-Men.”

Warner Bros. is mixing its old-guard relationships with stars like Clint Eastwood (who is directing and starring in “Space Cowboys,” a grumpy-old-men-in-the-stratosphere action film) with younger talent like Keanu Reeves (in the football comedy “The Replacements”) and Mark Wahlberg (in the adaptation of Sebastian Junger’s book “The Perfect Storm”). New Line Cinema hopes Adam Sandler will deliver his fourth mega-hit in a row with “Little Nicky,” about Beelzebub’s smart-alecky son.

Paramount, meanwhile, continues to make mainstream genre movies, with a few action flicks (“Mission: Impossible 2” with Tom Cruise and “Rules of Engagement” with Tommy Lee Jones) and the remake of “Shaft,” starring Samuel L. Jackson and directed by John Singleton, and--if it goes into production in time--a hip Chris Rock comedy for the young audience (“I Was Made to Love Her,” directed by the duo that made last year’s hit “American Pie,” Chris and Paul Weitz).

As in every year, those who love sitting slack-jawed in the dark will have myriad fantasies from which to choose--from pretty horses to animated poultry (in DreamWorks’ hotly anticipated “Chicken Run,” from stop-motion geniuses Peter Lord and Nick Park). The Blair Witch will be back. So will the Flintstones and a bouncy new litter of Dalmatians, not to mention several other numbered installments of earlier hits, including “Scream 3,” “Urban Legend 2” and “Pokemon 2.”

Fewer literary adaptations are in store (after a steady stream of books-into-movies did poorly at the box office in 1999). But people are talking about director Curtis Hanson’s return with his first film since 1997’s “L.A. Confidential”: his take on Michael Chabon’s dark comic novel “Wonder Boys.” And for those who love tight-bodiced clothing, here comes Uma Thurman in the latest Merchant Ivory production, an adaptation of Henry James’ “The Golden Bowl.”

The big ’00 will also bring some unexpected departures. Producer Jerry Bruckheimer--known for testosterone-choked mega-hits like “Armageddon” and “The Rock”--will reveal a softer side with “Coyote Ugly,” about an aspiring songwriter pursuing her “Flashdance”-like dreams, and “Remember the Titans,” about a black football coach (Denzel Washington) struggling with racism in a newly integrated Virginia high school.

“There’s heart in everything we do,” insisted the ever-busy producer, rejecting the suggestion that he is changing course (after all, his third movie of 2000 is the summer action bonanza “Gone in Sixty Seconds,” starring Nicolas Cage as a legendary car thief pulling a last heist). But Bruckheimer admitted that movies about race relations, like “Titans,” are not what audiences expect when they spot his name in the credits. “It’s a wonderful story and we’ve got a terrific cast, so I hope it works. We’ll see if anybody shows up.”

Will they? That is the perennial question in Hollywood. Five movie studios lost market share last year: Sony, Paramount, Miramax, New Line and DreamWorks. Fox’s share grew only slightly, despite distributing 1999’s top-grossing film: “Star Wars: Episode I The Phantom Menace.” Disney--top-ranked in 1998--stayed on top in 1999, taking more than 17% of the box-office dollars, with Warner Bros. coming in second. But third-ranked Universal made up the most ground, jumping from ninth place the previous year. And MGM gained slightly.

*

Among the questions that will be answered during the next 12 months:

* Will moviegoers pay to see Mel Gibson, who won two Oscars while wearing a kilt (in 1995’s “Braveheart”), don leggings and frilly cuffs (as a Revolutionary War hero in Sony’s upcoming “The Patriot”)? And how about New Zealand’s Russell Crowe? Does he have the gams to fight tigers while wearing a leather skirt (in “Gladiator”)?

* Can Roberts, America’s sweetheart, deliver the following line of dialogue (from “Erin Brockovich”) and look like she means it?: “As long as I have one ass instead of two, I’m gonna wear what I like if that’s all right with you.”

* Aside from the fact that several of Hollywood’s top stars are Scientologists, can anyone really think that L. Ron Hubbard’s novel “Battlefield Earth: A Saga of the Year 3000” (which Warner Bros. is releasing) has the makings of a blockbuster? (Though if reports are true that John Travolta and his wife, Kelly Preston, play 9-foot-tall aliens--named Psychlos--with glowing amber eyes and grotesquely elongated heads, this could be the comedy of the year.)

* Will director Baz Luhrmann (“Romeo & Juliet”) succeed in reinventing the movie musical with Fox’s “Moulin Rouge” starring Nicole Kidman and Ewan McGregor? (Though in the end who cares, as long as we get to see John Leguizamo playing Henri de Toulouse-Lautrec?)

* Will this be the year that Harrison Ford finally teams with a beautiful woman who can bring him luck at the box office? Though unstoppable in action flicks like “Air Force One,” Ford’s last romantic movie (“Random Hearts”) tanked after audiences burst out laughing during what was supposed to be hot sex. The year before that was “Six Days Seven Nights,” and who can forget 1995’s “Sabrina”? This year he stars with Michelle Pfeiffer in “What Lies Beneath,” about a happily married couple whose idyllic life is rocked by mysterious events.

* Can actors direct? In addition to Norton, Bonnie Hunt is making her feature debut with “Return to Me,” while a host of other actors also take the helm again: Anjelica Huston with “Agnes Brown,” Robert Redford with “The Legend of Bagger Vance” (starring Will Smith) and Billy Bob Thornton with “All the Pretty Horses” (with Matt Damon).

* Can cinematographers direct? Janusz Kaminski, who has shot Steven Spielberg’s last four films, is at the helm of “Lost Souls,” a Winona Ryder thriller for New Line Cinema. And how about composers? John Ottman, who’s written numerous scores from “The Cable Guy” to “Apt Pupil”--which he also edited--will direct the “Urban Legends” sequel.

* Can pop stars act? Here’s hoping so, because there are a slew of them on the big screen this year. For just one example, Madonna stars with Rupert Everett in Paramount’s “The Next Best Thing,” about a custody battle between a gay man and a straight woman.

*

Other trends, coincidences and juxtapositions that pop out of the 2000 lineup include:

The road not taken: Two pictures this year serve up a dose of existential angst, Hollywood-style. Disney’s “The Kid,” directed by Jon Turteltaub, stars Bruce Willis as a 40-year-old high-powered image consultant who gets in touch with the man he used to be when he meets himself, 30 years younger. Think “Big,” revisited.

Then there’s Universal’s romantic fantasy “Family Man,” directed by the rising Brett Ratner (“Rush Hour”), which stars Cage as a successful Wall Street trader who wakes up Christmas morning and finds himself living the life he left behind 20 years ago. Instead of being single, he’s married (to the girlfriend he ditched two decades before, Tea Leoni). Instead of Manhattan, he lives in Jersey. Think “Scrooged,” without Bill Murray.

Must-see performances: Speaking of Murray, are we the only ones who think he was born to play Bosley in “Charlie’s Angels”? Also, given what the team of Willis and Shyamalan pulled off last year (“The Sixth Sense”), who’s not looking forward to their next collaboration, “Unbreakable”? In it, Willis is the sole survivor of a devastating train wreck and Samuel L. Jackson is a stranger who proposes a bizarre explanation.

The final frontier: Space movies continue to live long and prosper, with two films about the seventh-largest planet (Disney’s “Mission to Mars” and Warner Bros.’ “Red Planet”), the L. Ron Hubbard saga “Battlefield Earth” and Warner Bros.’ “Space Cowboys,” starring Eastwood, Tommy Lee Jones, James Garner and Donald Sutherland.

But for sheer otherworldly wit, Sony’s bawdy space comedy may take the prize: “What Planet Are You From?” (directed by Mike Nichols) is about a space alien (Garry Shandling, who also wrote the script) who comes to Earth on a mission to impregnate a woman (Annette Bening). Dating is hell, Shandling finds, no matter what galaxy you’re from.

Down for the count: More boxing/wrestling movies are joining Universal’s “The Hurricane” in the ring, including Disney’s newly opened “Play It to the Bone” (starring Woody Harrelson and Antonio Banderas as down-on-their-luck boxing rivals) and Warner Bros.’ “Ready to Rumble,” a broad comedy set in the world of pro wrestling (starring David Arquette and Oliver Platt).

Animate this: Just look at the animation lineup for 2000. In February, there’s Disney’s “The Tigger Movie.” In March, DreamWorks’ “The Road to El Dorado.” In May, Disney’s computer-generated/live-action “Dinosaur.” In June, Fox’s “Titan A.E.” and DreamWorks’ “Chicken Run.” In November comes Fox’s surreal “Monkeybone,” a partially animated black comedy about a cartoonist (Brendan Fraser) who slips into a coma and enters the world of his own comic books en route to trying to regain consciousness. Paramount also has “Rugrats in Paris” scheduled for Thanksgiving.

But don’t animate that: Conversely, several projects that began on the drawing board are coming to life. Universal has “The Adventures of Rocky and Bullwinkle” (starring the ever-present De Niro, Jason Alexander and Rene Russo) and “The Flintstones in Viva Rock Vegas” (with Mark Addy and Stephen Baldwin). Fox has “X-Men” (starring Hugh Jackman, Patrick Stewart, Ian McKellen, Halle Berry and Anna Paquin). And Disney has Glenn Close reprising her role as Cruella De Vil in “102 Dalmatians.”

Wait, am I in the right theater?: Confusion is inevitable if everyone sticks to the titles they’ve chosen. For example, Sony Pictures Classics has “Me Myself I,” a romantic comedy written and directed by the editor of “Shine,” which sounds a lot like Fox’s “Me, Myself and Irene.” Fox’s animated “Titan A.E.” sounds a lot like Disney’s “Remember the Titans.” Springtime will feature both “Billie Letts’ Where the Heart Is,” starring Natalie Portman and Ashley Judd, and “Where the Money Is,” with Paul Newman and Linda Fiorentino. And then there is a whole bunch of numerical titles, from Artisan’s “The Ninth Gate,” a thriller starring Johnny Depp and helmed by Roman Polanski, to “The Whole Nine Yards,” a comedy (starring Willis, Matthew Perry and Rosanna Arquette) about a dentist who gets a new neighbor: a friendly mobster.

Look who’s back: Sylvester Stallone plays the lead in two films: He’s a disenfranchised FBI agent in Universal’s thriller “D-Tox,” and he reprises Michael Caine’s role in a remake of the 1971 “Get Carter,” about gangster Jack Carter. Kim Basinger’s got two films, too: Sony’s drama “I Dreamed of Africa” and the Paramount thriller “Bless the Child.”

Remakes: In addition to “Get Carter” (in which Caine will have a cameo) and “Shaft” comes “Bedazzled” from Fox, a new version of director Stanley Donen’s 1967 film. Brendan Fraser takes the Dudley Moore role about a guy who tries to win his girl by selling his soul to the devil.

In and out: Robert Downey Jr. may still be serving his three-year sentence for drug offenses, but he’s got two movies coming out nevertheless. The onetime Oscar nominee stars in director James Toback’s “Black and White” and Hanson’s “Wonder Boys.” *