Run for the Roses Dominated in ‘90s by Late Bloomers

When asked every January about the quality of the newest 3-year-old crop, the late Frank “Jimmy” Kilroe, the sage who ran Santa Anita’s racing department, would arch an eyebrow and say: “It’s a little early, isn’t it?”

No student of racing ever wrote a condition book better than Kilroe, and 3-year-old racing in the 1990s would have been a snug fit for him: Rushing to judgment was not the way to ferret the winner of the Kentucky Derby.

The Santa Catalina Stakes, a 1 1/16-mile race for 3-year-olds, will be run for the 62nd time Sunday, and favored Captain Steve may reinvigorate trainer Bob Baffert’s romance with the Derby, but what will it mean? For the last 10 years, it hasn’t meant much. Without fail, the early bloomers in late January have found the path to the Churchill Downs winner’s circle in May strewn with thumbtacks. When shopping for a potential Derby winner, discard the obvious and home in on the obscure.

In 1986, Ferdinand won the Derby after winning the Santa Catalina, but he’s the only horse that successfully bracketed those two races. Charismatic’s run in last year’s Santa Catalina is more the norm. Trainer Wayne Lukas’ 30-1 shot ran fifth out of five as General Challenge beat him by 13 1/2 lengths. Less than two weeks later, Lukas ran Charismatic for a $62,500 claiming price, hoping another trainer might like him just a little. With one win in nine starts, there was little to like. A couple of trainers kicked his tires, but nobody bought. There were no handicappers even hinting that this colt was Kentucky Derby timber. They would have been cinctured and hauled away if they had.

It has been this way all through the 1990s. The last thing a future Derby winner needs is a head of steam moving into February. Take a quick look at them all at this time of year:

1998--Real Quiet won the Hollywood Futurity, but he had been beaten in eight of 10 starts. In mid-January, Baffert noticed what appeared to be an easy spot at Golden Gate Fields. Real Quiet ran last, beaten by 22 1/2 lengths, and didn’t win another race until Derby day.

1997--Silver Charm, who had run only three times as a 2-year-old, hadn’t run since he won the Del Mar Futurity the previous September. Because of a viral infection, he had a five-month layoff before he made his first start as a 3-year-old on Feb. 8. Gary Stevens, who would be his jockey in the Derby, was two months away from riding him for the first time.

1996--Lukas had an Army of Derby prospects, but Grindstone didn’t look like the ticket. He broke his maiden in June 1995, ran fourth in a stake at Churchill Downs three weeks later and then disappeared for the rest of the year. He wouldn’t make his 3-year-old debut until Feb. 16.

1995--Thunder Gulch was beaten by 6 1/2 lengths by Afternoon Deelitesin the Hollywood Futurity. Timber Country, winner of the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, and even the filly Serena’s Song, were supposed to be Lukas’ big guns. Thunder Gulch’s first start at three came on Feb. 18, and even after a couple of narrow wins in Florida, three weeks before the Derby he was a poor third in the Blue Grass.

1994--Go For Gin won on Jan. 22 at Gulfstream Park, giving him four wins in a row, but then seemed to regress in two more Derby preps. Chris McCarron, the master of the first-time ride, got the call from trainer Nick Zito in the Derby.

1993--In late January, Sea Hero was still on a farm in South Carolina. Trainer Mack Miller and owner Paul Mellon weren’t sure what they had. As a 2-year-old, Sea Hero had taken four races to break his maiden, which didn’t come until Miller started running him on grass. The colt was a nonentity in the Breeders’ Cup, and in his first race as a 3-year-old on Feb. 7, he finished ninth at Gulfstream. Miller would throw him into one more grass race before they got to Churchill.

1992--A Pennsylvania-bred, Lil E. Tee moved through conditions to post two wins and two seconds in four starts in 1991. His Derby-year winter began in Arkansas, where he ran for the first time on Feb. 9 and didn’t move into stakes company until three weeks later.

1991--Strike The Gold’s first 3-year-old outing came on Jan. 26, and he couldn’t beat allowance horses that day or on Feb. 23. But then trainer Nick Zito clicked the right combination, with a second in the Florida Derby and a big win for his new rider, Chris Antley, in the Blue Grass. In the last 10 years, only two horses--Charismatic and Strike The Gold, both ridden by Antley--have won their final preps before winning the Derby.

1990--By the end of his 2-year-old campaign, Unbridled wasn’t ready for the Breeders’ Cup. He would win races by 10 lengths and lose them by 20. His first race in 1990, on Jan. 14, was an uninspiring fifth in the Tropical Park Derby at Calder. What few noticed was that Unbridled was already a seasoned two-turn horse, and trainer Carl Nafzger kept toughening him with more 1 1/8-mile distances.

Three of the last 10 Derby winners hadn’t seen two turns by the end of January. Two more had run only once around two turns. Jimmy Kilroe did know best: The Kentucky Derby belongs to the swift only on the day they’re running it.

Horse Racing Notes

The last time he was entered, in the El Conejo Handicap, Kona Gold didn’t run because trainer Bruce Headley thought 122 pounds was too much weight to carry this early in the year. Kona Gold is entered again, this time with 121 pounds, in Saturday’s $200,000 Palos Verdes Handicap. Also assigned 121 pounds is Big Jag, who ran 1:08 and beat Kona Gold by a head in last year’s Palos Verdes. There was a five-pound difference in Big Jag’s favor that time. The veterans have met four times, Big Jag having won two, Kona Gold one and Kona Gold having out-finished Big Jag as Artax beat them both in the Breeders’ Cup Sprint at Gulfstream Park. Freespool, winner of the El Conejo, drew the rail for Saturday’s six-furlong race. Outside him in the gate will be Kona Gold, Mellow Fellow, Old Topper and Big Jag.

General Challenge will have a new rider, Corey Nakatani replacing Chris McCarron for the Strub Stakes on Feb. 5. . . . Cavonnier, the 1996 Santa Anita Derby winner and Kentucky Derby runner-up, has a new trainer, Ron McAnally, who takes over Bob Baffert. . . . More Than Ready, whose 2-year-old season ended with two losses after three stakes wins, makes his 3-year-old debut Saturday in the Hutcheson at Gulfstream. . . . Sharp Cat’s first foal was a filly by A.P. Indy. Sharp Cat will be bred back to A.P. Indy. . . . Royal Highlander, a $650,000 purchase by Team Valor, will remain in England to run in the 2000 Guineas on May 6 instead of being sent to trainer Jenine Sahadi at Santa Anita.