Zimbabwe’s Opposition Gets a Boost

Initial returns today from weekend parliamentary elections in this southern African nation indicated a strong showing for the opposition in a vote that was expected to bring long-awaited political change to Zimbabwe.

Although it appeared that the ruling party would retain control of parliament, preliminary results signaled an impressive trend for the opposition Movement for Democratic Change, or MDC, which is just 9 months old.

With results in from 100 of 120 races, the MDC had won 48 seats, the ruling party 51 and a small independent party one.

In the two decades since independence from Britain, the opposition in Zimbabwe has never before won more than three seats in the 150-seat legislature, leaving President Robert Mugabe’s Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front, or ZANU-PF, virtually unchallenged. Mugabe directly appoints 30 members of parliament.

Final results were expected later today, but analysts said the opposition already had forced a shift in the balance of power and jolted the country out of a political malaise.

At least 60% of the country’s 5.1 million eligible voters flooded polling stations Saturday and Sunday, a record turnout and a departure from the typical voter apathy.

“People are ready for change,” said Masipula Sithole, a political scientist and director of the Public Opinion Institute, based in Harare, the capital. “They have been abused long enough.”

Hunger for a shake-up of the power structure took a long time to materialize because Zimbabwe lacked a viable opposition until the MDC was formed, Sithole said.

The overwhelming sentiment among analysts here is that the MDC, led by former trade union official Morgan Tsvangirai, succeeded in tapping into widespread disenchantment, specifically over the country’s economic woes.

Inflation and unemployment have skyrocketed to more than 50% in recent months. The value of the Zimbabwean dollar has plummeted. International donors have cut aid to protest corruption and mismanagement. The lucrative agricultural sector has suffered from widespread invasions of predominantly white-owned commercial farms by independence war veterans and pro-ZANU-PF militants.

“The well-being of the nation is in tatters,” said MDC candidate Michael Auret, who won a parliamentary seat in Harare. “Our relationship with traditional friends is in tatters. ZANU has offered us nothing.”

Tsvangirai lost his race for parliament, but so did several prominent members of the ruling party. Justice Minister Emmerson Mnangagwa and Home Affairs Minister Dumiso Dabengwa reportedly were badly beaten in their races.

However, ruling party stalwarts have made clear that the ZANU-PF has no intention of relinquishing power. Mugabe, whose term expires in 2002, has executive powers to appoint his Cabinet from any of the people elected to parliament.

If the MDC won a majority in parliament, it could block unfavorable legislation. It could amend the constitution so that parliamentary and presidential elections were no longer held separately, and the date for presidential elections could be brought forward. It also could pass a vote of no confidence in Mugabe, forcing him to step down.

A significant minority of opponents in parliament will still give the legislature a new face and serve as a watchdog.

“Mugabe can only function on the basis of mass repression or find a coexistence option for MDC,” Tsvangirai said in an interview at his house Saturday.

The MDC has promised stability, economic revival and an end to rampant corruption. But critics argue that the party has been weak in outlining its policies and is full of members who lack governing experience.

A charismatic and strong orator, Tsvangirai has been slammed by ZANU-PF officials as an apologist for the country’s white minority and a puppet of former colonial power Britain.

“He is not his own candidate,” said Sydney Sekeramayi, Zimbabwe’s minister of state for national security, who won a seat in the southeastern city of Marondera. “He is an instrument of others.”