Spotlight on State’s Voting

Tuesday is the decider. The fates of presidential contenders will be settled by voters in key primaries, in big-vote states including California, New York and Ohio. At day’s end some contenders are likely to fold their tents.

Some 7.6 million Californians are expected to vote Tuesday, punching a ballot that includes 23 presidential aspirants, 20 state propositions, candidates for Congress, the Legislature and various local offices and ballot issues. Secretary of State Bill Jones forecasts a turnout of 52% of registered voters, 10% more than four years ago.

Jones attributes the anticipated heavy turnout in part to interest in the first California primary held under the state’s new open primary law and the chance for California to finally play a decisive role in nominating candidates for president.

For decades, California held its primary in June, and the balloting was all but meaningless since the party nominations were decided before California voted. The 1996 primary was moved to the third week in March, and that still wasn’t early enough. This time, however, California will be a pivotal state along with 10 others holding primaries Tuesday.

On the Democratic side, Vice President Al Gore has a commanding lead in California polls over former New Jersey Sen. Bill Bradley.

It’s still a horse race on the Republican side. In the dramatic battle for the GOP nomination, Texas Gov. George W. Bush leads Arizona Sen. John McCain in opinion surveys among Republican voters. Yet even if McCain loses the Republican vote, which will award the winner 162 delegates, he still could finish ahead of Bush, and possibly even Gore, in the overall popular vote. The overall vote will include independents and crossover Democrats like those who have propelled McCain’s reform campaign elsewhere, But California parties will not accept crossovers for the purpose of awarding delegates.

What if Bush wins the delegates and McCain carries the overall vote, or at least finishes ahead of Bush? Bush will appear to be a battered winner, one unlikely to carry California against the Democrats in November. It’s all on the table Tuesday.

The candidates spent considerable time in California leading up to the state’s only debates, which took place last week in Los Angeles. A few hours remain for them to make spirited final appeals to California voters. Considering the surprise twists this campaign has taken up to now, none can afford to take anything for granted.