One Loss One Too Many for Pac-10

It’s never too early to talk about the Orange Bowl and the Pacific 10 Conference getting squeezed, is it?

As remarkable as this year’s turnaround has been for the Pac-10, which boasts a 23-7 nonconference record and a 5-4 record against top 25 schools, the conference has all but been boxed out of national title contention by the powers that be and is in jeopardy of not even landing a second school in a lucrative at-large bowl championship series game.

Let’s assume Oregon and Washington, No. 7 and No. 8 in this week’s BCS standings, win out and finish 10-1.

Even if all of the other title contenders have one loss, neither Oregon nor Washington appears to have enough computer muscle to advance to the national title game by finishing first or second in the final BCS standings.

How could this be if the Pac-10 is arguably the strongest conference in the country?

Because getting to the national title game is still a beauty contest and the Pac-10 is still Miss Congeniality.

And, because how and when you win is still more important than whether you win.

Need proof?

If No. 3 Miami defeats No. 2 Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Hurricanes will take another step closer to playing for the national title in the Jan. 3 Orange Bowl.

And Washington, despite having beaten Miami in September, may have to settle for the Holiday Bowl.

“There isn’t a good explanation why our two one-loss teams are rated below several of the other one-loss teams,” Pac-10 Commissioner Tom Hansen said this week.

It’s all about perception, BCS loopholes, respect, visibility and the lack thereof.

Also, the fact that the Pac-10 is top-to-bottom solid this year has actually hurt the conference’s chances in the national championship race because close games do not sway the voting coaches and writers or the run-it-up elements in the eight computer systems involved in the BCS rankings system.

This year, 14 Pac-10 games have been decided by seven points or fewer. Included among the thrillers have been four overtime games (two triple, one double and one single).

Close shaves by Washington (31-28 over Stanford, 33-30 over Oregon State) and Oregon (56-55 over Arizona State, 14-10 over Arizona) have kept those title contenders lagging behind.

“I do think there’s an inherent bias in the polls because our games are played later in the day and a lot of people don’t see them,” Hansen complained. “I think sometimes they don’t even see our scores.”

If Oregon and Washington finished 10-1, you might figure the scenario would be set: Oregon goes to the Rose Bowl by virtue of beating Washington and Washington goes to the $13.5-million Fiesta Bowl.

But it isn’t that easy. If Texas Christian finishes No. 6 or higher in the final BCS standings, the Horned Frogs are guaranteed an at-large BCS berth. TCU is No. 9 in the BCS this week.

And, get this: Under BCS bylaws, if a non-BCS conference school such as TCU gets a bid, Notre Dame is guaranteed the other at-large BCS spot so long as the Irish finish with nine victories.

What, you thought Notre Dame didn’t bring lawyers to those early BCS meetings?

In that scenario, 10-1 Washington gets snubbed and packs for San Diego.

Even if TCU or Notre Dame falls out of the equation, there is no guarantee that the Fiesta Bowl would take Washington.

Hansen, in fact, is angry no second Pac-10 team has received an at-large bid in the two years of the BCS and two years before that under the Alliance.

The Fiesta Bowl is the logical geographical landing spot for a worthy second Pac-10 school, but the Fiesta has only hosted one Pac-10 team--Arizona, in 1994--since 1985.

“They have been reasonably cool to us as a conference,” Hansen said. “I’ve heard people say your teams play here [in conference] every year.”

John Junker, the Fiesta Bowl’s executive director, said that he does not agree with Hansen’s assessment, although he acknowledged the fact Sun Devil Stadium is a Pac-10 venue can be a “marginal detriment” for a bowl trying to attract money and spectators.

“There just haven’t been that many real opportunities,” he said of Pac-10 schools.

He added that Washington, Oregon and Oregon State are all on the Fiesta Bowl’s list of candidates.

“I’m not going to say we will take Washington,” Junker said, “but I’ll definitely say we’re interested.”

DOLLARS VERSUS SENSE

Five years ago, when the Big 8 expanded to become the Big 12, the league’s coaches voted 11-1 against hosting a conference title game because they worried that the extra game could cost a school a shot at the national title.

However, the conference’s athletic directors, unable to resist the national exposure and financial rewards, overruled the coaches and voted in favor of the game.

Guess what?

For the third time in five years, the Big 12 title game may cost the conference a shot at the national title.

In 1996, Texas’ stunning upset of No. 3 Nebraska denied the Cornhuskers a Sugar Bowl slot against Florida State. Instead Florida, which had lost to Florida State in November, won the national title by defeating FSU in a rematch.

In 1998, Texas A&M;’s stunning overtime victory against Kansas State in the Big 12 title game ultimately denied the Wildcats a national title shot against Tennessee in the Fiesta Bowl. Florida State won the coveted spot against Tennessee.

This year, Oklahoma may be the victim. Although the Sooners vaulted to No. 1 in the BCS with Saturday’s 31-14 victory over Nebraska, they will likely have to face Nebraska again on Dec. 2, at night, at Arrowhead Stadium in Kansas City, Mo.

“You’re right,” Big 12 Commissioner Kevin Weiberg said this week. “It does have the potential impact for a team’s ability to reach the national title game.”

Weiberg wasn’t in on the original decision, having not joined the Big 12 until 1998. But he said he favors hosting the title game because of the exposure and income it brings the conference.

But Weiberg concedes things may change if Oklahoma loses an Orange Bowl spot because it loses a rematch against Nebraska.

“I’m sure it’s going to be an ongoing topic of discussion,” he said.

FROM OUR ARCHIVES

This week’s mystery quote was uttered in December 1997, during the time USC Athletic Director Mike Garrett was interviewing candidates after he fired John Robinson.

Here’s the quote: “They’re not talking to me,” the coach said when asked if USC had contacted him. “That must mean I’m way down the list.”

Garrett, of course, did not hire the talented young defensive coordinator looking for his head-coaching break.

Garrett, instead, hired Paul Hackett.

The coach who went unhired by USC continued his job at the University of Florida.

A year later, Oklahoma hired him.

Two years later, Oklahoma is No. 1.

Yep.

Bob Stoops.

ANOTHER ONE BITES THE DUST

Give Alabama Athletic Director Mal Moore credit for taking quick action in soliciting the “resignation” of Coach Mike DuBose, who lost control of his team and all but sealed his fate with can’t-lose defeats this year to Southern Mississippi and Central Florida. DuBose’s behavior in recent weeks almost begged for his dismissal. He blamed God for a loss to Tennessee two weeks ago. He survived last year’s sexual harassment scandal because his team finished 10-3 and won the Southeastern Conference, but Alabama (3-5) has appeared rudderless after opening the season at No. 3 in the polls. What next? Moore will probably go after a big-time name, but why would the likes of Miami’s Butch Davis, Virginia Tech’s Frank Beamer or Clemson’s Tommy Bowden leave programs at which they can already win national titles? Might Moore be bold enough to take a run at the last of Bear Bryant’s old guard, Mississippi State Coach Jackie Sherrill, who played for Bryant at Alabama?

The incredible thing is that the lame-duck DuBose could leave Alabama with another conference title and BCS bowl berth. That’s right. With three victories, the Crimson Tide would clinch the SEC West and advance to the conference title game, the winner automatically receiving a BCS bid, likely the Sugar Bowl.

HURRY-UP OFFENSE

This week’s news in the BCS rankings is Florida State’s leap over Miami, setting up a potential firestorm should the one-loss Seminoles get the coveted No. 2 national title spot over a one-loss Miami, which beat Florida State last month. Florida State jumped from fifth to third in the BCS while Miami dropped from fourth to fifth. Proving what? That blowouts count. Florida State wiped out North Carolina State, 58-14, while Miami only beat Louisiana Tech by 11, 42-31. Florida State’s computer average improved from 4.14 to 2.29 while Miami dropped from 4.14 to 5.57.

More BCS: The eight BCS computers claim not to be regionally biased, but get this: Washington is No. 3 in the Seattle Times computer this week but no higher than seventh in any of the other seven computers used in the BCS formula.

TCU Coach Dennis Franchione will be a top candidate for vacant coaching jobs in the coming months, but it should be noted that he is under contract through the 2005 season and is earning nearly $1 million a year. According to the Associated Press, Franchione’s contract has a less punitive buyout clause stipulation for potential openings at Notre Dame, Texas, Texas A&M; and Arizona State.

Because of an ankle sprain, Virginia Tech quarterback Michael Vick will not start in Saturday’s showdown against Miami at the Orange Bowl. But that doesn’t mean he will not play. “I won’t do anything to put this football team in jeopardy,” Vick said. Read into that what you want, such as: Vick not playing puts his football team in jeopardy.

We said Penn State Coach Joe Paterno deserved the benefit of the doubt in the Rashard Casey case, and Casey and Paterno were vindicated Tuesday when the quarterback was not indicted on felony assault charges. As for the newspapers that reported last week that Casey would be indicted, well, that should provide an interesting test for the First Amendment.

Wisconsin’s 13-7 victory against Iowa last week might have spared the Badgers the ignominy of becoming the first Big Ten school to go from first to worst in the conference since . . . Wisconsin in 1959 and 1960.

Our game to watch this week is 0-7 Duke at 0-7 Wake Forest in what is being billed as “The Bagel Bowl.” Any wonder why Florida State has dominated the Atlantic Coast Conference?