Winter May Be Key to Tracy’s Survival

After officially announcing the hiring of Jim Tracy as their new manager, top Dodger executives left Wednesday afternoon for a management retreat in Ojai.

Although cynics might label it a forced retreat necessitated by the hiring of the comparatively unknown Tracy, it is an annual event enabling the Dodgers to review all aspects of their operation.

Given the stress and scrutiny that the Dodgers have been under since Fox became owner and, in particular, the upheaval in front-office and playing personnel, it’s needless to say that club leaders will find a packed agenda in Ojai--although Tracy’s survival will likely be determined in other places at other times, and much of it will be out of his hands.

In other words, Dodger hopes for a successful summer in 2001 hinge significantly on a successful winter and a) the willingness of Chairman Bob Daly to expand a $98-million payroll and b) the ability of beleaguered General Manager Kevin Malone to help Daly chart a difficult course at a time when the rebuilding farm system is still unable to help.

At some point, of course, Tracy will have to demonstrate he can improve communications and tighten the clubhouse reins in the aftermath of Davey Johnson’s loose tenure, but not even Dick Tracy would have a shot unless Daly and Malone--the former studio chief and the muzzled sheriff--provide some key weapons.

Where do the Dodgers go from here now that Daly has clearly put his neck on the line by disregarding the support of key players for batting coach Rick Down and selected Tracy as his manager?

The Dodger needs have been chronicled and remain obvious:

* The re-signing of pitchers Darren Dreifort, a free agent, and Chan Ho Park, only a year away from free agency.

* The addition of a left-handed relief pitcher and a reliable starter in the No. 4 or 5 role, possibly free-agent veteran Kevin Appier.

* The imperative need to improve infield defense, a difficult hurdle unless Mark Grudzielanek is traded, Alex Cora is moved to second base and Alex Rodriguez is signed as a free agent.

* The removal of Carlos Perez, still owed $7.5 million in 2001, and Devon White, due $5.9 million, as potential powder kegs for a manager in his first year at a major league helm.

None of that will come easily or without significant price.

The Dodgers are locked into inflexible contracts and will have to continue paying market and retail rates without the ability to recycle their roster and payroll from within.

It is hard to see that payroll remaining under $100 million (with or without Rodriguez), a demanding burden with inherent expectations for a rookie manager.

Why Tracy? Why so low profile?

That, too, has been chronicled. The key aspects are that Dodger credibility has taken such a hit in the last two years that Daly and staff did not want to risk being rejected by a higher-profile candidate and they needed someone who could work with Malone. His own credibility has been severely dented by his questionable trades and signings, although he insisted Wednesday that he has seen no signs of concern from Daly or others regarding his work.

“Everyone seems well pleased with the vision, the direction and the developmental process,” he said. “Why would there be concern? We’re ready to move forward in a unified effort.”

Perhaps, but it is hard to believe that an organization as rich in tradition and history as the Dodgers would find itself in a situation where either by choice or the lack of choice it would have to conduct such a narrowly focused managerial search--worried ostensibly that the new manager could get along with a general manager now clearly on a one-year leash.

In addition, that new manager had better support the company line under Daly (there was concern that Down might have been too honest in his relations with the media) and better, amid everything else, support and accept the reemerging influence of Tom Lasorda, who could wind up as his bench coach or front-office mentor.

Make no mistake: The Lasorda presence might have intimidated, scared off or simply been unacceptable to other, higher-profile candidates--another reason the search remained in-house.

So, how will Tracy do? Will he survive?

Who knows?

In another time and place, Walter Alston, elevated from triple A to manage the Dodgers, was greeted by New York headlines asking, “Walter Who?”

All managers have to start somewhere, but taking on a $100-million payroll with all of the obvious problems and expectations isn’t the easiest initiation.

In fact, after the next few days in Ojai, there will be no retreat for Jim Tracy.