GOP Appears to Have Won Power Play

Republicans appeared to maintain control of Congress on Tuesday by the narrowest of margins in a vote that saw a dead man and a first lady elected, two millionaires winning on the strength of their own money and at least three senators thrown out of office.

As the parties concluded their tense and expensive duel for legislative power, House Republicans said they had held off a strong Democratic challenge--a claim the Democrats were not yet ready to concede early today. Each side lost at least one incumbent, and several open seats traded hands. But analysis of a few dozen key races nationwide showed Democrats apparently falling short of their goal of erasing the GOP’s seven-seat House margin.

In the Senate, Democrats whittled the Republican majority by at least two seats, but they could not nail down the five seats they needed to retake power.

Still, the final goal remained achingly close as numerous races--especially in California and other Western states--were cliffhangers late into the night. In California, Democrats won an open seat in the Silicon Valley that had been in Republican hands, and they appeared to knock off incumbent GOP Reps. James E. Rogan of Glendale and Brian P. Bilbray of San Diego.

But one thing seemed clear: Whoever controls the House or the Senate likely will do so by the thinnest margin in decades--and with an uncertain mandate from the voters. Those fragile majorities will make it difficult for the new president to steer Congress in any radically new direction.

“It looks like we will be able to hold a majority,” Senate GOP leader Trent Lott of Mississippi told CNN. “You may not have a sweeping mandate, but it’s going to be different in Washington.”

Said House Speaker J. Dennis Hastert (R-Ill.): “Clearly, we have to reach across the aisle.”

Against the backdrop of those partisan stakes, voters in marquee races around the country were making history in distinctive ways.

New York voters set a precedent by electing a first lady to Congress. Hillary Rodham Clinton triumphed over GOP Rep. Rick Lazio in a senatorial campaign that consumed more money, national attention and presidential energy than any other in the nation.

Hillary Clinton, claiming victory shortly after 11 p.m., told cheering supporters, “I promise you tonight I will reach across party lines to bring progress to all of New York’s families. Today we voted as Democrats and Republicans. Tomorrow we begin again as New Yorkers. . . . I will work my heart out for you for the next six years.”

In Missouri, voters were making a different kind of history: They took the extraordinary step of casting more votes for a dead Senate candidate--Democratic Gov. Mel Carnahan, who was killed in a plane crash three weeks ago--in a campaign that defeated GOP Sen. John Ashcroft. That clears the way for Missouri’s acting Democratic governor to appoint Carnahan’s widow, Jean. But the GOP may mount a legal challenge.

In New Jersey, Democratic Senate candidate Jon Corzine won his race by spending unprecedented amounts of his own money. That was just the beginning of a good night for self-financed millionaire candidates. Another rich business executive won the Senate race in Minnesota; a third won in Washington state.

In California, meanwhile, voters reelected Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, who was running against Rep. Tom Campbell (R-San Jose), by a much broader margin of victory than she had captured in a bitterly fought campaign against a wealthy challenger six years ago.

Control of the House appeared to hinge on what happens in California, which Republicans acknowledge is treacherous terrain for their incumbents. Democratic hopes of winning the majority rest heavily on knocking off three incumbents--including Rogan, whose fight against Democratic state Sen. Adam Schiff has turned into the most expensive House race in history. But Rep. Stephen Horn (R-Long Beach) appeared to be leading in a tough fight.

As polls opened around the nation Tuesday, the battle to control Congress remained too close to call. But from the outset of the campaign season, there has been one certainty: This would be a blue-chip year for most incumbents. All but a handful of House members and senators coasted to reelection with little or no opposition. In a time of peace and prosperity, and in the last election before the 2000 census causes a shake-up in House districts, the battle royal was fought on a tiny battleground. Gone was the throw-the-bums-out animus that had prevailed in the early- to mid-1990s.

But huge stakes rode on a few dozen contests. Democrats hungered to win back the majority power they had lost in a stunning, humiliating blow in 1994, when Republicans won control of both the House and Senate for the first time in 40 years. Democrats needed to pick up at least seven House seats and five Senate seats to do so.

Heading into Tuesday’s vote, Democratic prospects seemed brighter in the House, where the party had made inroads in the previous two elections. In the Senate, which the GOP now controls, 54 to 46, the odds favored Republicans--even though many key races grew more competitive in the campaign’s final weeks.

For both chambers, the 2000 campaign proved the most suspenseful in years and the most expensive ever. Congressional candidates had raised $800.7 million by mid-October--a 42% increase over their haul in 1998, according to the Federal Election Commission.

GOP Expected to Lose Ground in Senate

In the Senate, 34 seats were at stake: 19 now held by Republicans and 15 held by Democrats. Of those, only nine were considered tossups.

Republicans were expected to lose ground in the Senate--although it was not likely they would lose their majority--because they were on the defensive for more seats than the Democrats.

Democrats’ incursion into Republican ranks began in Florida, where former Rep. Bill Nelson won the Senate seat held by retiring GOP Sen. Connie Mack. Nelson, the state’s insurance commissioner, beat Republican Rep. Bill McCollum, who was best known nationwide for his role as a leader in the impeachment of President Clinton.

In a big blow for Republicans in Delaware, Democratic Gov. Thomas R. Carper knocked off GOP Sen. William V. Roth Jr., even though the Republican was one of the most senior members of the Senate and chairman of the powerful Finance Committee. Roth’s age, 79, became a factor in the race, especially after he stumbled and fell twice during the final months of campaigning.

Democrats won another trophy in Minnesota, where millionaire businessman Mark Dayton beat GOP Sen. Rod Grams, a first-term incumbent whom many considered too conservative for the state.

A third incumbent, Washington’s GOP Sen. Slade Gorton, was trailing Maria Cantwell, a Democratic Internet executive who poured millions of her own money into her campaign.

But the Democratic stampede stalled in Montana, where GOP Sen. Conrad Burns turned back a stiff challenge.

And Democrats suffered losses of their own. In Virginia, former GOP Gov. George Allen defeated the Democrats’ most vulnerable incumbent, Sen. Charles S. Robb.

In Nevada, Democrats lost the seat held by retiring Sen. Richard Bryan. There, former GOP Rep. John Ensign easily beat his Democratic opponent, Ed Bernstein.

With two Senate races still too close to call, it was not clear exactly what the final breakdown of the chamber would be. But one real possibility is a 50-50 split for the first time.

If the Senate were equally divided, under the Constitution the tie would be broken by the vice president--either Republican Dick Cheney or Democrat Joseph I. Lieberman, depending on which party wins the White House.

For the House, in which all 435 seats were at stake, the picture was still murky because the majority will be determined by a handful of races around the country that appeared headed for a photo finish.

Heading into the election, there were 222 Republicans in the House, 209 Democrats, two independents and two vacancies. One of the independents routinely votes with the Democrats and one of the vacancies is expected to be filled by a Democrat, so the party needed a net gain of at least seven seats to eke out a majority of 218 votes.

Complicating the outlook, however, is a maverick Democrat. Rep. James A. Traficant Jr. (D-Ohio) has said he will vote to reelect Hastert as House speaker when the 107th Congress convenes in January. That means the Democrats may need to pick up eight seats to be sure of electing one of their own as speaker.

35 Open Seats Targeted in House

In the House, the contest focused on 35 open seats where House members were retiring, deceased or seeking other elective offices. That terrain favored the Democrats, who had previously controlled only nine of the open seats, compared to 26 for the Republicans.

Democrats were guaranteed one pickup Tuesday because no Republican ran for the seat now held by Rep. Matthew G. Martinez (R-Monterey Park), who was defeated in the Democratic primary by California state Sen. Hilda Solis before he switched to the GOP.

They gained a second open seat in Oklahoma when the seat held by conservative Rep. Tom Coburn was won by Democratic attorney Brad Carson. But Republicans were heading to victory in another seat previously held by a Democrat, Owen Pickett of Virginia. A Democrat also won a Republican-held House seat in Utah--as well as the New York seat held by Lazio, which he had relinquished to run for the Senate.

To win a majority, Democrats also needed to knock off several Republican incumbents.

But overall, early returns included many disappointments for Democrats, as voters reelected several incumbent Republicans in Kentucky, Indiana, North Carolina and other states. Moreover, Republicans managed to pick up five open seats held by Democrats in Missouri, Virginia, West Virginia, New York and Pennsylvania.