Only Fassel Has It All Figured Out

Five weeks left in the regular season, and the NFL playoff pressure is building.

Baltimore Raven Coach Brian Billick recently threatened to fine his players if they so much as mentioned the word “playoffs” prematurely. It looks as if they’ll be seeing it on their itineraries, however: The team that once couldn’t score touchdowns is 8-4 and looking at an easy stretch run.

New York Giant Coach Jim Fassel? Let’s just say it sounds as if he is feeling the heat after consecutive losses dropped the Giants to 7-4: This week, he guaranteed the Giants will make the playoffs.

“If this is a poker game, I am shoving my chips right in the middle of the table,” Fassel said. “I am raising the ante. Anybody who wants out, can get out. This team is going to the playoffs. OK? This team is going to the playoffs.”

Nowhere is the race tighter than in the AFC East, where four teams are separated by only a game, with five head-to-head meetings among the contenders remaining.

“The landscape changes every week,” said New York Jet Coach Al Groh, whose team is one of three tied for second behind Miami. “I believe this division race will go down to December 24 because all of the teams involved play each other.”

Here’s a glance at what lies between here and Christmas Day:

AFC EAST

First-place team: Miami Dolphins (8-3).

Wild-card contenders: Buffalo Bills (7-4), Indianapolis Colts (7-4), N.Y. Jets (7-4).

Key games: Miami at Indianapolis (Sunday), Miami at Buffalo (Dec. 3), Indianapolis at N.Y. Jets (Dec. 3), Buffalo at Indianapolis (Dec. 11), Indianapolis at Miami (Dec. 17), Minnesota at Indianapolis (Dec. 24).

How it shakes out: With so many games against one another remaining, these teams will batter their records--making it quite possible only the division champion and one other will make the playoffs.

Miami has a question mark because of quarterback Jay Fiedler’s pinched nerve, and Damon Huard isn’t the answer. But the Dolphins have an opportunity to push aside the Colts because they play them twice, and they finish with New England.

Another team with an advantage: Buffalo, with a schedule that closes out against New England and Seattle.

The Jets play Chicago and Detroit but also have Indianapolis, Oakland and Baltimore.

Stunningly, one team in position to be left out altogether is the Colts.

Once a favorite to reach the Super Bowl, they have a brutal closing run with two games against Miami, and the other three against the Jets, Buffalo and Minnesota.

At least they get to use this hackneyed playoff-race phrase: They control their destiny.

AFC CENTRAL

First-place team: Tennessee Titans (9-2).

Wild-card contender: Baltimore Ravens (8-4).

Key games: Tennessee at Philadelphia (Dec. 3), N.Y. Jets at Baltimore (Dec. 24).

How it shakes out: These teams are virtual locks, and the only question is whether Tennessee can secure home-field advantage.

The Titans are tied with Oakland at 9-2 for the AFC’s best record. And look at this closing schedule: Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Cleveland, Dallas. That might spell hello, Adelphia Coliseum.

Baltimore, the offensively challenged bunch that has recovered with Trent Dilfer at quarterback, has an easy schedule left. The Jets are the only team the Ravens face with a winning record.

Here’s the Ravens’ ace in the hole in the wild-card race: a 7-3 conference record, which would be the tiebreaker after head-to-head record.

AFC WEST

First-place team: Oakland Raiders (9-2).

Wild-card contender: Denver Broncos (7-4).

Key games: N.Y. Jets at Oakland (Dec. 10), Denver at Kansas City (Dec. 17).

How it shakes out: The Raiders are going to the playoffs for the first time since leaving Los Angeles.

But here’s what’s at stake down the stretch: home-field advantage and a first-round bye.

The Raiders are tied with Tennessee for the best record in the AFC, and home field goes to the winner.

It could be an interesting race.

The Raiders don’t play the Titans this season, eliminating head-to-head competition as a tiebreaker.

The next tiebreaker would be conference record, also a tie at the moment at 7-2.

Next up, record against common opponents, but a minimum of four is required, which doesn’t apply in this case.

It could come down to scoring margin in conference games--a statistic that would almost certainly go the Raiders’ way because of the Titans’ lower-scoring, defensive style.

Still, the AFC West race isn’t quite over--not with Denver holding the tiebreaker after a sweep of the Raiders and looking at a schedule that includes two games against Seattle and one against San Francisco down the stretch.

The Broncos have a fairly easy schedule--though that isn’t always good, witness their earlier loss to Cincinnati.

NFC EAST

First-place team: Philadelphia Eagles (8-4).

Wild-card contenders: Washington Redskins (7-4), N.Y. Giants (7-4).

Key games: Philadelphia at Washington (Sunday), N.Y. Giants at Washington (Dec. 3), Tennessee at Philadelphia (Dec. 3).

How it shakes out: If Washington is to win the NFC East, it best beat Philadelphia on Sunday, because the Eagles still have games against Cleveland and Cincinnati remaining.

The Redskins play the Eagles and Giants at home the next two weeks after beating both on the road, so they can take control of the division.

The Redskins aren’t in strong wild-card tiebreaker position, however, with a loss to contending Detroit and only a 5-3 conference record.

The team on sinking soil is the Giants--although they hold a potentially crucial tiebreaker with a sweep of the Eagles.

“We’re not catching the people in front of us [in the standings] and the people behind us are catching up with us,” tackle Lomas Brown said.

“What’s going to happen if we get into the playoffs? Man, we can’t beat the good teams now.

“We’re going to go in there like window dressing. We’re going to go in there and get beat, and I don’t want that.”

NFC CENTRAL

First-place team: Minnesota Vikings (10-2).

Wild-card contenders: Detroit Lions (8-4), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (6-5).

Key games: Minnesota at St. Louis (Dec. 10), Detroit at Minnesota (Nov. 30), Detroit at Green Bay (Dec. 10), Tampa Bay at Green Bay (Dec. 24).

How it shakes out: One of the biggest games of the season should be when Minnesota and St. Louis meet Dec. 10 at the Trans World Dome in what should be a wild shootout for home-field advantage in the NFC playoffs.

Neither team plays great defense, and Kurt Warner will be back to lead Marshall Faulk and Isaac Bruce against the Vikings’ Daunte Culpepper, Robert Smith, and their incredible big-play receiver, Randy Moss.

Detroit has stumbled badly at times, but its 7-2 conference record is the best among NFC wild-card contenders and would put the Lions in good tiebreak position.

Tampa Bay is a long shot, and even Coach Tony Dungy believes his team needs to win four of five to reach the playoffs.

An even longer shot: Green Bay, at 5-6.

NFC WEST

First-place team: St. Louis Rams (8-3).

Wild-card contender: New Orleans Saints (7-4).

Key games: Minnesota at St. Louis (Dec. 10), St. Louis at New Orleans (Dec. 24).

How it shakes out: For the Rams, it’s about home-field advantage and recovering the team’s stride going into the playoffs after Warner returns.

Everyone seems to be giving the Saints up for dead after the injuries to Ricky Williams and Jeff Blake, but when you consider the teams competing for the final NFC wild-card spots, it’s not over.

Worst sign: The Saints still must play St. Louis twice.