Democrats Poised to Widen Advantage

By MIGUEL BUSTILLO

Oct. 2, 2000 12 AM PT

TIMES STAFF WRITER

SACRAMENTO —

Tony Strickland talks of becoming the next leader of the Republican minority in the California Assembly. But before he can mount a run in the winter, the Thousand Oaks lawmaker has to win reelection.

Strickland barely beat his Democratic opponent, teacher Roz McGrath, two years ago to represent the heart of Ventura County. Now McGrath is back--and is expected to receive a $1-million dowry from Sacramento’s powerful Democratic leaders.

“They’re going to put enormous amounts of money in all their races,” Strickland said last week. “I have to worry about raising money.”

Already in firm control of the Legislature, Democrats are mounting an aggressive, well-funded assault this fall to wrest even more seats from Republicans. The GOP, by contrast, is assuming a defensive crouch, hoping to hang on to what few seats it holds.

“We’re very opportunistic,” crowed Democratic strategist Darry Sragow, who is running the lower house races. “You have to think of us as the great white shark.”

With the economy continuing to chug along, George W. Bush trailing Al Gore badly in California and polls showing strong public approval of Gov. Gray Davis and the Democrat-run Legislature, Republicans’ hopes for a turnaround year in the Capitol have dimmed.

Democrats outnumber Republicans 46 to 32 in the Assembly and 25 to 15 in the Senate. All 80 Assembly seats are in play, along with half the Senate’s 40 seats.

Before the Nov. 7 elections are over, GOP leaders predict, Democrats could outspend Republicans 5 to 1 in Legislative contests. With roughly $18 million in their personal and leadership accounts, Democrats already enjoy an edge of more than 4 to 1.

For the first time in 16 years, the GOP is without a Republican governor to help them raise money. Davis, meanwhile, is already lending Democrats a strong hand in fund-raising efforts and is sharing some of his record-shattering $21-million campaign coffers with needy candidates in close races.

Making matters worse for the GOP, Republicans’ traditional source of campaign cash, big business, is increasingly shifting its contributions to Democrats, who continue to benefit from their traditional benefactors: lawyers and labor unions. That emerging trend, more than any other, worries California Republicans.

“Our fund-raising is going very well, but frankly, when the business community gives half its money to Democrats, there is just no way we can compete,” said Senate Republican leader Jim Brulte (R-Rancho Cucamonga).

Brulte pointed to contributions from the California Building Industry Assn., which has given $336,000 to Democrats and $147,000 to Republicans, and the insurance industry, which has given Democrats $1.3 million and $1.1 million to the GOP.

Some in Sacramento attribute the business shift to the Democrats’ increasingly moderate tilt, particularly in the Assembly, where Speaker Bob Hertzberg (D-Sherman Oaks) and other members of the influential Democratic Business Caucus have snuffed out nearly all legislation opposed by corporate interests. Others say it is simpler: With little hope for a GOP conquest of either house, business is laying its gifts at the feet of the party certain to be in power.

“No matter what happens, the majority is out of reach for them in either house,” said Senate President Pro Tem John Burton (D-San Francisco). “Why would you give money to the Republicans? So they can win 17 seats instead of 15? What is that going to accomplish?”

Money is ever more crucial in the battle for control of the California Legislature.

Because of the revolving door in the Legislature caused by term limits, experts say even established incumbents are relatively unknown, making them especially vulnerable to expensive attack ads and campaign mail. Republicans worry that they may lack the resources to respond.

“I anticipate at the end of the day, the Democrats and their machine will spend $20 million to $25 million on the Assembly alone, while we will be lucky to spend $5 million to $7 million,” said Assembly Minority Leader Scott Baugh (R-Huntington Beach), who is leaving the lower house because of term limits.

Democrats have become increasingly suspicious of the defeatist rhetoric coming from California’s Republican leaders. Burton refers to their lamentations as “crocodile tears” and says they are merely lowering expectations. He and Hertzberg suspect Republicans will raise their share of money before the elections are over.

“I am not persuaded that we have all this money,” Hertzberg said. “Nationally, they have a lot of money, and that can impact our races. . . . The one thing I have learned is not to get cocky.”

The political skirmish that takes place every two years for control of the Legislature is often compared to a chess match, and as in that thinker’s game, practitioners say every move is as much art as science, based more on instincts than information.

Half the game is trying to figure out where the other side is really putting its resources. The rest is trying to determine where the sneak attacks will be. And events large and small can change everything, said Sragow, an old hand.

In Orange County, for instance, Democrats want to oust Assemblyman Ken Maddox (R-Garden Grove). But Maddox recently experienced a shower of good fortune: A reserve Tustin cop, he foiled a bank robbery attempt and had his picture splashed all over the local papers. Maddox the hero might be harder to take on, Sragow noted.

In the South Bay, an opposite turn of events occurred. Gerald Felando, the Republican running against Democratic Assemblyman George Nakano, has circulated pictures of Nakano in his kendo outfit, apparently concluding that Nakano looks ridiculous. But, Sragow said, voters polled were impressed with Nakano’s martial arts prowess.

In San Diego, the ongoing energy crisis has cast a cloud over the region’s legislative races, creating uncertainty for incumbents such as Sen. Dede Alpert (D-Coronado). Her race against Republican Larry Stirling, a Superior Court judge and former lawmaker, was already expected to be close.

“It’s an unknown,” Alpert said. “It makes everyone a little nervous.”

Baugh and other Republicans said they do not expect the issue to make much difference this fall, because Democrats passed legislation to relieve consumers of skyrocketing electricity rates. But Stirling hopes otherwise.

“The public is upset with the incumbents,” he said. “They know something is wrong and that it hasn’t been fixed.”

Experts agree that there is a rigid political calculus governing the California races.

In the Assembly, for example, about 35 of the 80 seats are considered safe for Democrats, based on those districts’ voter registration, ethnic makeup and other factors. Of those, 34 are now held by Democrats, the other being the Oakland-area seat held by Independent Audie Bock, who beat a Democrat last year. Twenty-seven are considered safe Republican seats.

The other 18 or so seats are where the action is. Democrats hold 13, so much of their energy will go to defending recent gains. Nonetheless, Democrats say demographic changes and dips in voter registration, especially in suburban areas that were formerly GOP turf, are creating opportunities.

One is the contest to fill the Silicon Valley seat being vacated by Assemblyman Jim Cunneen (R-San Jose), who is running for Congress. Monte Sereno Mayor Sue Jackson, a Republican, is battling Democrat Rebecca Cohn, a wealthy business consultant. Jackson and Cohn are moderates whose platforms emphasize housing, transportation and health care--the major issues for the tech set.

But Cohn claims to have found an advantage: In winning endorsements from key groups such as the Silicon Valley Chamber of Commerce, she has emphasized a key difference between her and her opponent--their political parties.

“I think the real question is who’s going to get the job done,” said Cohn, who by her own account has raised more than $650,000. “Is it going to be a freshman member of a minority party that has maybe 30 seats, or is it going to be someone like myself, a Democrat and a successful businesswoman?”

Furthermore, Democrats sense disarray in the GOP’s leadership in the Assembly. With Baugh acting as a lame-duck minority leader due to term limits, numerous lawmakers are jockeying to replace him. The result, several Democrats and Republicans said, is that top GOP lawmakers in the Assembly are busy raising money for a leadership run rather than focusing on the future of their caucus. And Baugh is having a hard time raising money.

Baugh denies the accusations, saying the leading candidates for his post, Assemblyman Dave Cox (R-Fair Oaks) on the moderate flank and Assembly members Bill Campbell (R-Villa Park) and Dick Dickerson (R-Redding) on the conservative side, have been quintessential team players.

And Strickland? His leadership crusade is considered a longshot. Strickland and Republican leaders fully expect him to emerge victorious next month. But Baugh said he had better take care of business and get his head out of the clouds.

“I think he needs to realize he is in a race down there,” Baugh said. “He needs to win before he can think about leadership.”

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

LEGISLATIVE LANDSCAPE

ASSEMBLY: 80 seats, all up for election

Currently:

Seats held by Democrats: 46

Seats held by Republicans: 32

Seats held by Independents: 1

Vacancies: 1

Five races sure to be competitive:

Southeast Los Angeles County: Assemblywoman Sally Havice (D) vs. Cerritos Mayor Grace Hu (R). Hu.

Southeast Los Angeles County: Assemblyman Alan Lowenthal (D) vs. Los Angeles Councilman Rudy Svorinich (R).