Who’s Next?

The main issue isn’t that the Dodgers have even managed to make a mess of the Davey Johnson firing.

After all, most dictionaries are already rewriting their definition of dysfunctional to put Dodgers at the head of the list.

The main issue--now that Johnson’s dismissal is unofficially official--is twofold:

Where do the Dodgers find a manager with the necessary skills and experience?

And where do they find a manager--whose ego and courage may outweigh his common sense--willing to swim in a quagmire?

The uniform carries the once-proud name, but the stability, tradition and direction have taken a beating.

As a National League general manager said: “We all have a cross or two to bear in our own situations, but a lot of guys might be scared off by what’s happening in L.A.”

What’s happening, of course, has been chronicled, but a managerial candidate might want to know a little more about . . .

* The fan and former movie executive who is now learning about a new industry in his role as Dodger chairman and might be a little overwhelmed by the complex problems facing his long-favorite team.

* The general manager who will apparently keep his job and who joined the chairman in openly distracting criticism of Johnson’s style and strategy. Malone has an abysmal record of trades and signings in two years with the Dodgers and who is known to have courted Kevin Kennedy as successor to Johnson with the team bidding for a wild card and the chairman having asked him to desist.

* The $98-million payroll that will probably expand significantly, is built on inflexible contracts difficult to trade and suggests to a new manager that he had better win now.

* The barren farm system that cannot supply in-house replacements or a package of prospects for trade.

* The finger-pointing clubhouse in which the long-familiar issues of fortitude and chemistry continue to haunt the Dodgers.

All of this, of course, leads back to the original question.

Is there an established manager--one with the communication skills and work ethic that the Dodgers thought Johnson lacked--willing to put valor ahead of discretion and tackle this intimidating environment?

Is anyone willing to do it?

Well, if the Dodgers felt that staying within the organization might breed a measure of stability, three members of Johnson’s coaching staff--Jim Tracy, Rick Down and Glenn Hoffman (who had a brief shot in a no-win situation as interim successor to Bill Russell)--would probably have interest.

Tracy and Hoffman refused comment Wednesday, but Down, the Dodger batting instructor who led the New York Yankees’ triple-A affiliate at Columbus, Ohio, to three consecutive first-place finishes in the early ‘90s and whose selection would be supported by some Dodger players, said he would consider it a great opportunity.

“I have some familiarity with the ballclub,” Down said. “I understand the areas we need to improve on. There’s no need to overhaul the club or reinvent the wheel. I like the nucleus. We just need to tweak here and there.

“Getting players to perform, that’s the biggest thing. We all have to be pointed in the same direction. You can’t have players going in different ways. The only thing that takes is time and communication, and I’ve never had a problem communicating with people.”

Who else?

Well, there are two complications:

The managerial pool has been drained almost as extensively as the pitching pool, and the Dodgers are not alone in their search.

Arizona, Pittsburgh, Philadelphia and Cincinnati have vacancies, and there may be more as organizations complete evaluations.

Dusty Baker, of course, could write his ticket anywhere, but he is likely to be tied up with his San Francisco Giants until late October, and it is foolish to think he would leave an area he loves for the uncertainty--to put it kindly--of Los Angeles. Neither does Kennedy figure now that the general manager has violated the chairman’s edict and Fox will televise the entire postseason tournament starting next year. Kennedy has told friends his preference is to remain as a Fox analyst rather than manage again.

There is no challenge larger than Bobby Valentine’s ego, and he may be a possibility if 1) not re-signed by the New York Mets and 2) his mentor, Tom Lasorda, retains any influence with his friend, the chairman. Lasorda has largely been isolated from any decision-making, and the only way he would be considered a managerial candidate himself, despite his Olympic glory, is if the Dodgers have no other takers.

Lou Piniella may opt to leave Seattle for a larger contract, but he too could be tied up until late October because of the playoffs. Industry policy will require the Dodgers to interview minority candidates, which could put New York Yankee coaches Willie Randolph and Chris Chambliss in the mix.

Mariner coach Larry Bowa, Chicago Cub coach Rene Lachemann and Oakland A’s coach Ken Macha are always possibilities, and sources say that Terry Francona, the recently fired Phillie manager, has been recommended to the Dodgers. Perhaps agent Scott Boras would be willing to give up his de facto position as assistant chairman/general manager to move to the clubhouse, where he has so many clients and might be considered a popular choice.

The bottom line is that there is no obvious candidate, no certain successor with skills superior to Johnson, and no reason to think replacing him will be easier than firing him, which they have managed to make far more difficult than need be.

Get this: On Friday of the season’s last weekend they basically tell Johnson he will not be back. Then they apparently agree to hold off on an announcement until the end of the current week, allowing the man they have just fired to vacation first--their apparent thinking being that another week will make it appear (perception always being the Dodgers’ greatest concern) that they have given their decision long and hard evaluation, as they had been insisting they would.

The revelation in Wednesday’s Times that the decision had already been made ended that nonsense--and left the Dodgers with a perception far worse than the one they were trying to avoid.

Then again, what’s new?

(BEGIN TEXT OF INFOBOX / INFOGRAPHIC)

L.A. STORY

For years the most stable job in baseball, the Dodger managerial post has now become synonymous with turnover and turmoil:

Walter Alston

YEARS 1954-1976

RECORD 1,673-1,365

PLAYOFFS 16-14

WORLD SERIES TITLES 3

Tom Lasorda

YEARS 1976-1996

RECORD 1,613-1,455

PLAYOFFS 31-30

WORLD SERIES TITLES 2

Bill Russell

YEARS 1996-1998

RECORD 173-149

PLAYOFFS 0-3

WORLD SERIES TITLES 0

Glenn Hoffman

YEARS 1998

RECORD 47-41

PLAYOFFS 0-0

WORLD SERIES TITLES 0

Davey Johnson

YEARS 1999-2000

RECORD 163-161

PLAYOFFS 0-0

WORLD SERIES TITLES 0

Who Will Be the Next Dodger Manager

If the Dodgers were to replace current manager Davey Johnson, these are several potential successors:

* Rick Down: Dodger batting instructor who led New York Yankees’ triple-A affiliate at Columbus, Ohio, to three consecutive first-place finishes in the early 1990s. Says he would consider it a great opportunity.

* Dusty Baker: Current San Francisco Giant manager is busy with playoffs. Uncertainty of job a negative.

* Kevin Kennedy: Former Red Sox skipper has told friends his preference is to remain as a Fox analyst rather than manage again.

* Bobby Valentine: A possibility if 1) not re-signed by the New York Mets and 2) his mentor, Tom Lasorda, retains any influence with his friend, Bob Daly.

OTHERS

* Seattle Mariner Manager Lou Piniella

* New York Yankee coache Willie Randolph

* New York Yankee coache Chris Chambliss

* Seattle Mariner coach Larry Bowa

* Chicago Cub coach Rene Lachemann

* Oakland A’s coach Ken Macha

* Recently fired Philadelphia Phillie manager Terry Francona