Season’s 1st Big Storm Approaching Southland

A moist weather system moving south along the California coast is expected to bring the first substantial rain of the season to Los Angeles today and Friday.

Amy Talmadge, a meteorologist with WeatherData Inc., said that between half an inch and an inch of rain should fall on the Civic Center, with about twice that much in foothill communities, before the storm system moves out to the east Friday afternoon. Snow is expected at mountain resorts above 5,500 feet.

“The rain should start in Los Angeles County at about noon on Thursday,” Talmadge said. “There will be locally heavy showers, off and on, continuing through Friday afternoon.

“There won’t be enough snow in the mountains for skiing, but there should be enough to make people want to go up there and play in it,” she said. “This will be the first nice storm of the year.”

She said that although little or no precipitation is expected Saturday, a second storm should hit Southern California late Sunday or early Monday, and that one could bring more rain and snow than the first.

The National Weather Service said a total of 0.34 of an inch of rain has fallen at the Civic Center so far this season, which runs from July 1 through June 30. That is a little less than normal for this time of year, but most meteorologists, including Talmadge, expect the total by the end of June to be pretty close to the season’s average of about 15 inches.

Rainfall during the past two seasons has been below normal. Meteorologists say that probably was due, at least in part, to a continuing La Nina, the oceanic and meteorological counterpart to the drenching El Nino during the winter of 1997-1998. During El Ninos, it’s usually wetter than normal in Southern California. During La Ninas, it’s usually drier.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says La Nina has finally dissipated, and there’s no new El Nino in sight.

Yet to be factored into the equation are new satellite data showing that the Pacific Ocean may be undergoing a dramatic climate shift, much longer than the El Nino/La Nina cycles, that could lead Southern California into decades of abnormally dry weather.