Swing Voters Keep Races Focused on the Issues

A surge in residents who decline to register to vote with either major political party has created a widening pool of independent-minded swing voters in the San Fernando Valley, and provided new challenges--as well as opportunities--for candidates in the Nov. 7 election.

“It has turned the election back to issues,” said Vivian Noh, campaign manager for Republican Paul Zee in the 21st Senate District. “For the swing voters, obviously party politics are not going to sway them. They want to know about the issues in the district.”

In the three congressional districts that make up most of the Valley, the percentage of voters registered as Republicans has dropped from 36.9% to 31.6% in the last six years, and Democratic registration has fallen from 50.2% to 49.3%.

At the same time, the percentage of third-party and nonpartisan voters in the Valley has jumped from 12.9% to 19.1%--with most of those declining to state any party affiliation.

The change means candidates must work harder and spend more, according to Parke Skelton, a campaign consultant for Democrat Adam Schiff of Burbank, running in the hotly contested 27th Congressional District.

“The independents and ‘declined-to-state’ voters certainly get a lot of extra attention,” Skelton said. “We’ve been focusing on them since July. That’s a long, long courtship.”

For Rep. James Rogan (R-Glendale), whose 27th Congressional District is 37% Republican and 44% Democrat, the voters who are not affiliated with the two major parties will be the key to the race, said Jason Roe, Rogan’s campaign manager.

“We don’t win this district unless we win the ‘decline-to-state’ voters and the independent voters,” Roe said. “We can win all the Republicans in the district and we still lose by 7%.”

The percentage of voters registered as neither Republicans nor Democrats in the congressional district has increased from 12.7% in 1994 to 18.7% this year.

Independents on the Rise

Political pundits offer a variety of reasons for the surge in independent voters.

“I don’t think they are focusing much on the political process, and there is a touch of alienation there too,” said Larry Berg, retired founding director of the Jesse Unruh Institute of Politics at USC.

Open primaries and measures that have made it easier to register also play roles in the increase, experts said.

For the scores of candidates vying for an unprecedented number of open legislative seats in the Valley, the large percentage of swing voters is but one of several challenges a week and a half before the election.

Despite the Valley’s reputation as a bastion of conservative voters, the way legislative districts are drawn means Democrats have a lead in voter registration in six of seven Valley Assembly races and two of the three state Senate contests.

Republican candidates who have an edge in voter registration--including Keith Richman of Sun Valley in the 38th Assembly District and Tom McClintock of Northridge in the 19th Senate District--are primarily those running in north-Valley districts that also stretch into the Santa Clarita and Antelope valleys.

By far, the Rogan-Schiff race is getting the most voter attention and, with the two candidates expecting to spend a combined $10.5 million, is the most expensive.

In the days before the election, Rogan and Schiff each expect to send mail to about 180,000 homes each day, while hundreds of thousands of dollars’ worth of television commercials will be shown in the district.

Both sides have completed voter registration drives in the district. The result: The number of Democratic voters grew by 12,006 since the primary and the number of Republicans increased by 9,271, for a net gain for Democrats of 2,735.

The voter registration drives, as well as the mail, television and get-out-the-vote campaigns about to kick into high gear, are having a major ripple effect on the races for the 43rd and 44th Assembly districts and 21st Senate District, which are all overlapped by Rogan’s district.

Democrats and Republicans are planning to send up to 2,000 volunteers into the overlapping districts so voters will hear about the party’s congressional, Senate and Assembly candidates at the same time.

The 43rd Assembly District race between Democrat Dario Frommer of Los Feliz and Republican Craig Missakian of Glendale is one of the closest and most bitter.

With major help from Democratic Party leaders, Frommer last week reported spending $1.1 million so far this year on his campaign, with $156,000 in the bank as of Oct. 21, compared with $518,000 spent by Missakian, who had $86,000 left in the bank for the homestretch.

A 10-point Democratic lead in voter registration also gives Frommer an advantage in the district, which includes parts of Glendale, Burbank, Toluca Lake, Los Feliz and east Hollywood.

Scott Leads Zee in Fund-Raising

The 21st Senate District race has also been intense, matching Assemblyman Jack Scott (D-Altadena) against Republican Paul Zee, a South Pasadena councilman.

Scott has received a flood of money from Democratic Party leaders and labor unions in recent weeks, bringing his total to $2.3 million so far this year, compared with the $882,000 raised by Zee.

While Scott had $795,000 in the bank as of Oct. 21, Zee had just $11,480 left. Noh said the Republican has been able to pay for all of the television and mail he had planned through Nov. 7.

Scott also has the advantage of an eight-point edge in Democratic voter registration in the district, which includes parts of Glendale, Burbank, Sun Valley, Sunland-Tujunga and South Pasadena. The seat is being vacated by Schiff.

The same lead in Democratic voter registration is enjoyed by Democrat Carol Liu, who is competing against Republican television commentator Susan Carpenter McMillan of Pasadena for the 44th Assembly District seat. Liu, a former teacher who serves on the La Canada Flintridge City Council, also has a significant advantage in funding thanks to help from party officials and labor unions.

The district also includes parts of Glendale, Sunland and Arleta. Scott holds the seat and is leaving to run for the Senate.

In the West Valley, Democrat Fran Pavley, the former mayor of Agoura Hills, is battling Republican Jayne Murphy Shapiro of Encino in the 41st Assembly District, where Democrats have a 16-point edge in voter registration.

Shapiro lent her campaign $275,000 early in the race, but the two have each raised a little more than half a million dollars.

Valley issues that have influenced the legislative races include the movement to break up the Los Angeles Unified School District to create a Valley district. This has played a role in the emphasis many candidates are placing on education reform.

Democratic strategists say the economic prosperity enjoyed by the Valley should benefit their candidates if voters decide they are satisfied with Democratic administrations in Sacramento and Washington.