Road to Top Just Got More Difficult

You can almost hear every coach and general manager in the Western Conference sighing, as if things weren’t tough enough. . . .

All the elite teams and a bunch of others geared up over the summer, so it’s not enough to be “better.” In the West where they crown all the eventual champions these days, they only pay off on “best.”

The Lakers, defending NBA champions, added Horace Grant and Greg Foster, not to mention Phil Jackson’s new favorites, Mark Madsen and Slava Medvedenko. Where Jackson only had one big man he trusted last season, he now has an assortment.

Unfortunately, it’s a small assortment, compared to the Portland Trail Blazers’ Mike Dunleavy, whose roster looks like an all-star squad and whose bench looks like the land of the giants.

The San Antonio Spurs have twin towers, as they always have, and this season they’re sound.

The Seattle SuperSonics, who used to be cannon fodder, just brought in Patrick Ewing and a bunch of big guys and now resemble contenders again.

Even the laughingstock Vancouver Grizzlies and Clippers are loaded with good young players.

The West in predicted order of finish:

1. SAN ANTONIO SPURS

* Record: 53-29, fourth in Western Conference.

* Offense: 96.1 points a game , 26th in NBA.

* Defense: 90.2 (1st).

* New: Derek Anderson and Danny Ferry.

* Gone: Mario Elie.

* Outlook: As defending champions, the Spurs were duds, with Tim Duncan’s free agency hanging over them and Sean Elliott sidelined. They rallied when Elliott returned, only to have Duncan suffer an injury and fall to the Phoenix Suns in the first round, giving the Lakers, who were warily eyeing a second-round matchup, a reprieve. Now, however, Elliott is OK, they’ve replaced Elie, an old warhorse, with Anderson, a young athlete, and Duncan is no longer a free agent. There was speculation when Duncan was hurt that Coach/General Manager Gregg Popovich was resigned to circumstances and focused on keeping Duncan happy. Duncan’s still there, so maybe it wasn’t such a bad season, after all.

* Bottom line: Duncan and David Robinson make them one of the few teams with an answer for Shaquille O’Neal. For Shaq, the bad news is, they’re still together.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Avery Johnson

G: Derek Anderson

F: Sean Elliott

F: Tim Duncan

C: David Robinson

2. PORTLAND TRAIL BLAZERS

* Record: 59-23, second.

* Offense: 97.4 (16th).

* Defense: 91.0 (3rd).

* New: Shawn Kemp, Dale Davis, Will Perdue,

No. 1 pick Erick Barkley.

* Gone: Brian Grant, Jermaine O’Neal, Detlef Schrempf.

* Outlook: Owner Paul Allen and trader Bob Whitsitt have stacked the roster and payroll to incredible levels--try $86 million worth--making the Trail Blazers, once again, the talk of the NBA in the off-season. Once again, it’s Dunleavy’s job to make sense of it all. Last season, when the Trail Blazers looked like they were about to take a 4-2 tumble in the Western finals, there were suggestions the players weren’t happy with the coach, and his job hasn’t gotten any easier. If Kemp starts, Scottie Pippen might have to move to guard and either Steve Smith or Damon Stoudamire would have to sit. Or they could sit Arvydas Sabonis . . . well, there are too many scenarios to count.

* Bottom line: One way or another, they’ll be deep, they’ll defend and they’ll be OK, at least until late May.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Damon Stoudamire

G: Steve Smith

F: Scottie Pippen

F: Rasheed Wallace

C: Dale Davis

3. LOS ANGELES LAKERS

* Record: 67-15, first.

* Offense: 100.8 (6th).

* Defense: 92.2 (6th).

* New: Isaiah Rider, Horace Grant, Greg Foster, No. 1 pick Mark Madsen.

* Gone: Glen Rice, A.C. Green, Travis Knight, John Salley.

* Outlook: No one expected them to win last season and they did. Now that everyone’s on the bandwagon, they may be a longer shot than they were a year ago. They’re deeper, especially on the front line, but they’re still the thinnest of the elite teams, especially on the front line. Oh, and who is going to shoot the ball? Of last season’s 344 three-point baskets--which was low enough--Rice, who had a team-high 84, is gone and Derek Fisher, who was third with 52, is sidelined. On the plus side, O’Neal and Bryant are by far the best 1-2 punch in the game. This is now a businesslike professional team and it defends.

* Bottom line: This could still work, but it’s anything but a sure shot.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Ron Harper

G: Kobe Bryant

F: Rick Fox

F: Horace Grant

C: Shaquille O’Neal

4. UTAH JAZZ

* Record: 55-27, third.

* Offense: 96.5 (20th).

* Defense: 92.0 (5th).

* New: John Starks, Donyell Marshall, Danny Manning, John Crotty, No. 1 pick DeShawn Stevenson.

* Gone: Jeff Hornacek, Howard Eisley.

* Outcome: It was another tough season for the old Jazz, with Karl Malone turning 36, John Stockton turning 37 and Shandon Anderson leaving. Yeah, sure it was. They fell all the way to No. 3 in the West. Now Hornacek, the perfect complement to Stockton and Malone, is gone. . However, new General Manager Kevin O’Connor, once a UCLA assistant under Larry Brown, did a good job, acquiring Starks, Marshall and Manning to give them more firepower off the bench than they’ve had in years. Not that veteran-loving Jerry Sloan will forgive youthful mistakes but Stevenson was impressive in the exhibition season, right out of high school.

* Bottom line: Those waiting for the Jazz to get old and die, take a number.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: John Stockton

G: John Starks

F: Byron Russell

F: Karl Malone

C: Olden Polynice

5. SEATTLE SUPERSONICS

* Record: 45-37, seventh.

* Offense: 99.0 (10th).

* Defense: 98.1 (14th).

* New: Patrick Ewing, Ruben Wolkowyski, No. 1 pick Desmond Mason.

* Gone: Horace Grant, Vern Maxwell, Greg Foster.

* Outlook: This is a rub-your-eyes-to-make-sure-you-believe-what-you’re seeing story. Last season, they started old Horace Grant at center and depended on the willowy power forward once known as Vin Baker. Now, with Ewing and a bunch of other big guys such as the 6-10 rough-and-ready Argentine Wolkowyski, they’re as big as anyone else and more talented than most. Ewing at 37 is still one of the better centers. Rashard Lewis broke out last season at 20, averaging 15 points and six rebounds in the playoffs. Mason, a rookie from Oklahoma State, just took Brent Barry’s starting guard spot, despite the fact Barry played well last season.

* Bottom line: Who cares if Baker’s a dud now? They’ll barely notice.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Gary Payton

G: Desmond Mason

F: Rashard Lewis

F: Vin Baker

C: Patrick Ewing

6. PHOENIX SUNS

* Record: 53-29, fifth.

* Offense: 98.9 (8th).

* Defense: 93.6 (12th).

* New: Chris Dudley, Tony Delk, Elie, No. 1 pick Jake Tsakalidis.

* Gone: Luc Longley.

* Outlook: Last season, the Suns won 53 games and finished fifth. This year, they could win 50 and finish sixth. They’re still the best little team in the West, the problem being there are so many good big teams. Caught between Duncan-Robinson to the east and O’Neal to the west, they tried Longley, but that didn’t work out. Now they’ll plug in Chris Dudley, a stiff from another continent. Aside from that minor shortcoming, the Suns have all kinds of players. Cliff Robinson had a big season and ex-Clipper Rodney Rogers had his best. By last spring, Penny Hardaway was back to his old self, but his backcourt partner, Jason Kidd, was hurt. Now Kidd’s back but Hardaway is recovering from knee surgery.

* Bottom line: Baseball keeps trying to put owner Jerry Colangelo’s Diamondbacks in the other league. If only he could put his Suns in the other conference.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Jason Kidd

G: Penny Hardaway

F: Tom Gugliotta

F: Clifford Robinson

C: Chris Dudley

7. SACRAMENTO KINGS

* Record: 44-38, eighth.

* Offense: 104.9 (1st).

* Defense: 102.0 (27th).

* New: Doug Christie, Bobby Jackson, No. 1 pick Hidayet Torkoglu.

* Gone: Corliss Williamson, Tony Delk.

* Outlook: The fun times are over. Two seasons ago, the Kings’ high-wire act made them everybody’s favorites. However, this produced actual expectations that made last season’s finish look disappointing. Now Chris Webber’s free agency is looming, he won’t commit to coming back and, indeed, lights up whenever someone mentions playing in a glamour market. The Kings have more problems, namely a soft defense and Jason Williams, who still makes too-daring passes in the sure knowledge that if only one in 10 gets through, it’ll be on ESPN’s “SportsCenter.” He’ll have to grow up fast.

* Bottom line: Peja Stojakovic, now starting, will bust out, assuring that while the Kings may not be able to stop anyone no one is going to stop them either.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Jason Williams

G: Doug Christie

F: Peja Stojakovic

F: Chris Webber

C: Vlade Divac

8. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES

* Record: 50-32, sixth.

* Offense: 98.5 (11th).

* Defense: 96.0 (13th).

* New: Todd Day, LaPhonso Ellis.

* Gone: Bobby Jackson.

* Outlook: Malik Sealy was killed in an auto accident in the off-season and David Stern came down hard on the Timberwolves for making a secret agreement with Joe Smith. Even before, the Timberwolves weren’t big or deep enough but, taking their lead from Kevin Garnett, they played hard enough and defended tenaciously enough to win a remarkable 50 games. At the end of last season, they were one big body away from becoming somebody. Now, they’re going to have to see if they can regroup fast enough to compete any more. Smith, a free agent, will make out since there’s plenty of demand for a big man. No one needs him more than the Timberwolves, but that’s not only history, it’s one of their most painful chapters.

* Bottom line: Sentimental pick from someone who thinks Stern hit them way hard. If they do make the playoffs, Garnett should be an automatic MVP.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Terrell Brandon

G: Chauncey Billups

F: Wally Szczerbiak

F: Kevin Garnett

C: Radoslav Nesterovic

9. DALLAS MAVERICKS

* Record: 40-42, ninth.

* Offense: 101.4 (3rd).

* Defense: 101.9 (25th).

* New: Christian Laettner, Eisley, first-round picks Etan Thomas and Courtney Alexander.

* Gone: Cedric Ceballos, Robert Pack, Erick Strickland, Sean Rooks.

* Outlook: Owner Mark Cuban was having such a great time, putting DVD players in everyone’s dressing area and special comfy chairs on the bench and irritating Phil Jackson, it’s too bad they have to start playing and jeopardize the hype. Don Nelson, who was about to be kicked upstairs for good by Cuban, pulled his career out of the fire when the Mavericks started to look like Nellie’s old high-scoring Golden State Warrior teams. Now however, he has to deliver a playoff finish or Cuban will put Plan A (upstairs) back into effect. Led by Michael Finley (free agent next summer) and Dirk Nowtizki, they have a lot of weapons. On the other hand, look around. Everyone else in the West has weapons and bigger players than the Mavericks do.

* Bottom line: Whatever happens, it’ll be fun to watch.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Howard Eisley

G: Michael Finley

F: Dirk Nowitzki

F: Gary Trent

C: Shawn Bradley

10. HOUSTON ROCKETS

* Record: 34-48, 11th.

* Offense: 99.4 (8th).

* Defense: 100.3 (21st).

* New: Maurice Taylor, No. 1 pick Jason Collier.

* Gone: No one.

* Outlook: They’re in the awkward position of asking Steve Francis, a 6-1, second-year point guard, to carry them into the playoffs, as if he were Magic Johnson or Michael Jordan. Of course, anyone who saw Francis last April, when he averaged 21 points, seven assists and seven rebounds, might think he’s got a chance. Hakeem Olajuwon, 37, is starting what could be be his final season. In retrospect, it looks like he played his final season two seasons ago and has just been sticking around since to collect his pay ($16.7 million this season). The backcourt is fine with Francis, Shandon Anderson and Cuttino Mobley. A lot rides on Olajuwon’s enthusiasm and Taylor, an ex-Clipper, who can score but has never defended or rebounded. Now that he’s finally away from the Clippers, that stuff matters.

* Bottom line: Mystery team. Could surprise to the upside.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Steve Francis

G: Shandon Anderson

F: Walt Williams

F: Maurice Taylor

C: Hakeen Obajuwon

11. DENVER NUGGETS

* Record: 35-47, 10th.

* Offense: 98.9 (11th)

* Defense: 101.0 (23rd).

* New: Tracy Murray, Terry Davis, Robert Pack, Calbert Cheaney, No. 1 pick Mamadou N’Diaye.

* Gone: Chris Gatling, Bryant Stith, Chris Herren.

* Outlook: Dan Issel held the fort for years while ownership looked for a buyer, rebuilding the Nuggets from 11-71 three seasons ago. Happily, there is now a deep-pockets new owner, Stan Kroenke. Unhappily for Issel, Kroenke looks ready to clean out the front office and start over, starting with Issel. With Antonio McDyess, Raef LaFrentz and Nick Van Exel, the Nuggets aren’t awful. They just aren’t big enough or good enough to make the playoffs in this conference. McDyess is an incredible athlete but a limited player. He and Lafrentz are both power forwards who’d be better off playing next to a real center. As for Van Exel, well, he probably wishes he’d been nicer to Del Harris.

* Bottom line: If they don’t get off to a good start, Issel could be gone by Thanksgiving.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Nick Van Exel

G: Tariq Abdul-Wahad

F: James Posey

F: Antonio McDyess

C: Raef LaFrentz

12. GOLDEN STATE WARRIORS

* Record: 19-63, 13th.

* Offense: 95.5 (22nd).

* Defense: 103.8 (29th).

* New: Coach Dave Cowens, Chris Mullin, Danny Fortson, Bobby Sura, Adam Keefe.

* Gone: Coach P.J. Carlesimo, Donyell Marshall, Jason Caffey, Billy Owens, Terry Cummings.

* Outlook: After three seasons of sullen play under Carlesimo, two under Rick Adelman and one under Don Nelson since the rebellion of 1994 when Nelson traded Chris Webber, something is stirring in the Bay Area. Cowens gets players to try and management has finally put a viable team on the floor, with tough guys such as Chris Mills, Fortson and Mullin providing clues for promising young guys Larry Hughes and Antawn Jamison. Hughes, who has Kobe-level gifts, looked wild in Philadephia and, for all the fireworks, made 39% of his shots while averaging 23 a game as a Warrior. If he settles down, they’ll be on their way somewhere.

* Bottom line: Of course, as a team offical noted recently, how many games can they win in this conference?

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Mookie Blaylock

G: Larry Hughes

F: Antawn Jamison

F: Danny Fortson

C: Eric Dampier

13. LOS ANGELES CLIPPERS

* Record: 15-67, last.

* Offense: 92.0 (28th).

* Defense 103.5 (28th).

* New: Coach Alvin Gentry, Corey Maggette, Derek Strong, Sean Rooks, and first-round picks Darius Miles, Keyon Dooling and Quentin Richardson.

* Gone: Coaches Chris Ford and Jim Todd, Maurice Taylor, Derek Anderson.

* Outlook: For sheer exciting young talent, there are few teams to rival the Clippers. Lamar Odom proved himself to be an eye-opening talent and now he’s joined by Miles, a junior version of Odom, the gifted Maggette, the tough guy Richardson, et al. Unfortunately, this isn’t the McDonald’s Classic for the top prep players, but the NBA, so things like experience and outside shooting, which are largely missing, mean a lot. The energetic Gentry looks like an upgrade from Chris Ford. However, winning a lot of games in this conference, in which so many teams are talented and all of them are more experienced than the Clippers, is asking a lot.

* Bottom line: Of course, if Gentry could just get them to play hard, that might be fun.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Jeff McInnis

G: Darius Miles

F: Lamar Odom

F: Brian Skinner

C: Michael Olowokandi

14. VANCOUVER GRIZZLIES

* Record: 22-60, 12th.

* Offense: 93.9 (26th).

* Defense: 99.5 (17th).

* New: General Manager Dick Versace, Coach Sidney Lowe, No. 1 pick Stromile Swift, Ike Austin, Mahmoud Abdul-Rauf, Kevin Edwards.

* Gone: General Manager Stu Jackson, coaches Brian Hill and Lionel Hollins, Felipe Lopez, Cherokee Parks.

* Outlook: Administrations come, administrations go. . . . The Grizzlies finally got a new owner and their overdue first front-office housecleaning but to what end? It’s hard to see how a team with Shareef Abdur-Rahim, Mike Bibby and Michael Dickerson can’t win more, even playing with Bryant Reeves who is 7 feet tall, makes $10.1 million and has averaged 5.9 rebounds the last two seasons. Swift, a talented young forward, could help but the operative word with him looks as if it’s “young” more than “talented.” Versace came in, talking about dumping Reeves. However, that was when he thought he’d be coaching, before wiser heads talked him out of that. Now Lowe is there, to take the losses and the fall.

* Bottom line: Abdur-Rahim must rue the day he signed long-term.

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PROJECTED STARTERS

G: Mike Bibby

G: Michael Dickerson

F: Shareef Abdur-Rahim

F: Othella Harrington

C: Bryant Reeves