More Signs of Change

At first glance, a Times computer analysis of Tuesday’s election returns showed a San Fernando Valley clearly divided along ethnic and economic lines.

Businessman Steve Soboroff, a conservative Republican, carried the predominantly white, middle-class and wealthier areas on the Valley’s hilly southern, western and northern edges. Former Assembly Speaker Antonio Villaraigosa, a liberal Democrat who could become the first Latino elected mayor of Los Angeles in more than a century, carried the largely Latino and generally poorer communities in the Valley’s northeast and central flatlands.

Yet the Valley, home of the Proposition 13 tax revolt and long known as a bastion of white conservatives, favored Soboroff by only the slimmest of margins, 28.1% compared with 28% for Villaraigosa. City Atty. James K. Hahn drew 15.9% of the Valley vote.

And the candidate that Valley voters favored, however slightly, did not make it to the June 5 runoff. Citywide, Soboroff placed third with 21.2% of the vote, while Villaraigosa’s strong Valley showing helped propel him to the runoff with 30.4% of the vote citywide, against second-place finisher Hahn, with 25.2%.

Has the number of Latino voters grown that dramatically in the Valley? Intense voter registration drives, particularly in the northeast Valley, have paid off, with Valley Latinos going from 9% of the voters in the April 1997 election to 13% Tuesday. Still, white voters outnumber Latinos by more than 5 to 1 in the Valley, even though new census figures show Latinos nearly even with whites in population.

The reality is that Villaraigosa drew voters from all parts of the Valley--as did Soboroff, as did Hahn.

A closer look at the voting patterns presents a more nuanced view of the Valley. Yes, the wealthy enclave of Sherman Oaks, Studio City and Toluca Lake favored Soboroff, but not by much--28%, compared with 26.1% for Villaraigosa. Hahn received 14.3% of the vote there.

And yes, North Hollywood gave Villaraigosa 35.1% of the vote, but Soboroff won a respectable 21.4% in this largely working-class community and Hahn, 13%.

State Sen. Richard Alarcon (D-Sylmar), who formerly represented the northeast Valley on the Los Angeles City Council, told The Times that Latino voters “will vote for the person who best reflects their issues. Latino voters are like anybody else.” Increasingly, the same can be said about other Valley voters.

Yes, the white, conservative bloc is still a potent force, and both Villaraigosa and Hahn will be campaigning hard to win the more than 2 out of 5 Valley voters who supported either Soboroff or the fourth-place finisher, City Councilman Joel Wachs.

But if November’s election results, in which Valley voters favored Democrat Al Gore by larger margins than voters statewide, was one sign of change, Tuesday’s election results are another. The Valley is no hotbed of liberalism, but its lingering image as a stereotypical homogenous suburb, either ethnically or politically, needs revision. Both of the smart politicians in the runoff seem to have recognized this, and can surely resist pressure to appeal to the Valley’s divisions, rather than its fragile whole.