Census Sensibilities

As much as the decennial census prompts us to reflect on the present in Orange County and to look ahead to the future, it is by definition a look back at what has been developing in recent years.

There is a part of the portrait of Orange County that is as yet incomplete, with further economic data to come in later. However, the patterns that already are apparent through what is known affirm some important observations about the county that have been made by various experts during the past decade.

During that time, Orange County was consumed by mounting concern over sprawl, ocean pollution, quality of education, the county’s momentous and conflicted aviation choices, and the fiscal mismanagement of county government that culminated in the bankruptcy of late 1994. As new immigrant groups have taken their place, another kind of transformation has taken place. In addition to affecting politics, the new array of ethnic groups has implications for our economic and social life.

In the past decade, we have gone from being a county where only Santa Ana had more minorities than whites to a place where there are 10 such cities. Some of the important immigration trends already have been identified through at least one key study and some polling. Even before the census figures were released, these indicators have pointed the way to the world of Orange County of the 21st century.

In “Orange County: The Fate of A Post-Suburban Paradise,” a 1997 study for the Orange County Business Council and other groups, urban planner Joel Kotkin assessed the county’s economic scene after the bankruptcy. He sprinkled a generally favorable outlook with some cautionary observations about whether this county will continue to hold together as a unified entity economically and socially.

In taking note of the remarkable migration of high-tech companies to Irvine and other affluent communities, Kotkin observed that growth was gravitating toward ethnically homogeneous regions where a well-educated and skilled labor pool developed a new suburban model for economic centers like the Irvine Spectrum. Those at risk of being left behind were in the central and northern cities. These places, we now have confirmed through the new census data, increasingly are made up of immigrant groups. For those who lack skills and education, the risk that Orange County will be a place divided geographically into haves and have-nots is real.

Concern over gaps in education and training were revealed last year in the 2000 Orange County Annual Survey at UC Irvine. Amid an optimistic environment and high computer literacy in much of the county, a demographic shift was identified in which many lacked the education and job training to participate fully in the new information economy. The survey found that six in 10 Latino homes did not have a computer, and residents increasingly were concerned about a disparity between rich and poor.

The question of where the leadership will come from to address these gaps in education and job training is important. Orange County’s cumbersome regional governing body, the Board of Supervisors, lacks sufficient stature to provide much real countywide direction. It has frittered away political capital by taking incendiary stands over a major international airport proposal and in battling over the disposition of tobacco tax money. Leadership must come mostly from the community level, especially from local government, schools districts, institutions of higher learning, and business and civic groups.

Regarding how we all get along, the county in the past decade became a new destination for Latinos and Asian Americans. The older model of ethnic homogeneity that fueled the growth of suburbs after World War II now should give way to an environment in which toleration and full participation in political, economic and civic life must be the goal for all.

Immigration in the county’s older neighborhoods and its juxtaposition with new upscale developments in places such as Anaheim Hills challenges residents to find common ground. They will need to work across socioeconomic lines. Groups such as the county Human Relations Commission have a critical role to play.

Our children are our future, and in this group especially the census figures reveal a dramatic change in the ethnic makeup of the county’s population. Meeting their needs is an opportunity we can’t afford to miss. It is a chance to consider our new diversity as a precious asset for the future.