U.S. Not as Gray as 31 Other Countries

For all the talk of the graying American population, the United States places only 32nd among nations ranked according to the percentage of their population that is 65 and older, according to a government report.

By this measure, Italy is the oldest country in the world, with 18% of its population having celebrated their 65th birthday. The United States, at 12.6%, is younger than Japan, virtually all of Europe and even Uruguay.

Elderly populations almost everywhere will grow in coming decades as the members of the post-World War II baby boom cross the 65 threshold, enjoying the benefits of the latest medical advances.

In the United States, life expectancy at birth has jumped from 47 years as of 1900 to 77 years today. Worldwide, the number of people 65 or older is growing by 800,000 a month, the Census Bureau and the National Institute on Aging reported in “An Aging World: 2001.”

Also propelling the trend toward older populations are low birth rates. Couples in industrial nations are choosing to have fewer children than before.

Aging on a mass scale is “a fundamental transformation of human society,” said Richard Suzman, associate director of the behavioral and social research program at the National Institute on Aging.

“Many governments and international agencies, as well as demographic researchers, have only recently begun to pay attention to this increasingly important trend,” Suzman said.

One consequence will be an increased burden on working-age people to support the growing legions of those of retirement age. Italy already has more retirees than active workers.

Most European nations and Japan have birth rates lower than necessary to maintain their populations. In prospect are long-term population declines, which will aggravate the difficulties of supporting the elderly.

The United States, by contrast, is in a much stronger economic situation. The birth rate is still high enough to provide modest population growth, and the relatively open immigration policy means a steady arrival of new workers.

But as millions of American baby boomers age, and the birth rate remains low, the graying of the nation will accelerate.

By 2030, the government report noted, 20% of Americans will be 65 or older. In effect, all of the U.S. will be like the state of Florida today, where about 19% of residents are 65 or older.

But the U.S. will still rank only 26th on the tally of aging nations. Japan will overtake Italy, the Census Bureau and the Aging Institute estimated, and 28% of its population will be older than 65.