When in Doubt, Let History Be the Guide

If you’re trying to predict the winners of Wednesday’s Grammy Awards, you’d better reach for your good-luck charm. After the easily forecast sweeps by Lauryn Hill and Santana the last two years, the key races this time are so puzzling that even the most confident Grammy observers are second-guessing themselves.

The nominating committee was so divided that no artist is nominated in both the best album and best single record categories--for the first time in the 43-year history of the competition.

The chief drama revolves around Eminem, the Detroit rapper whose explosive mix of humor and satire, violence and rage has been hailed as cutting-edge art and condemned as socially irresponsible trash.

The Grammy nominating committee surprised many last month by including Eminem’s “The Marshall Mathers LP” in the best album field, but will the full voting membership be equally bold?

Don’t count on it.

Here are thoughts on some of this year’s most interesting matchups, including album of the year. Wednesday’s ceremony will be held at Staples Center and broadcast on tape-delay on KCBS at 8 p.m.

Album of the Year

The Nominees: Beck’s “Midnite Vultures,” Eminem’s “The Marshall Mathers LP,” Radiohead’s “Kid A,” Paul Simon’s “You’re the One” and Steely Dan’s “Two Against Nature.”

This may be the most critic-friendly best-album field ever. Eminem and Radiohead were widely cheered by critics, finishing one-two, respectively, in the poll of The Times’ pop contributors on the best albums of 2000.

Simon and Steely Dan didn’t make The Times’ Top 10, but both were favorably reviewed. Beck’s album, which was released too late in 1999 to be eligible for last year’s Grammys, was one of the most heralded releases of 1999.

But critics aren’t voting.

After convincing myself in recent days that Eminem will win because it’s the most compelling of the five albums, I mentioned that conclusion to some Grammy voters who usually have a good feel for the thinking of the 12,000 voting members of the National Academy of Recording Arts & Sciences.

They laughed.

The consensus is that there is no way Grammy voters are going to endorse Eminem for best album, because they feel uncomfortable with the collection’s sometimes X-rated content.

Eminem may carry the progressive wing of the Grammy voters over Beck and Radiohead, but the choice--as in most years--rests with the much larger traditional wing. That group tends to favor mainstream best-sellers (think Celine Dion’s conventional “Falling Over You” victory over Beck’s brilliant “Odelay” in 1996) or legendary figures along the lines of Bob Dylan and Carlos Santana (who won in 1997 and 1999, respectively).

That traditional vote will go to either Simon or Steely Dan. Neither album made much impact last year, but the artists are superior craftsmen with a history of wins or nominations in the best album category.

Though Steely Dan or the duo’s Donald Fagen has been nominated a total of three times in this category, neither has ever won. That could mean many voters will feel they are finally due--or it could mean simply that Steely Dan’s arty, somewhat cool style doesn’t have enough widespread voter support to make it past the nomination round.

That leaves Simon as the narrow favorite. He has three best-album Grammys to his credit, the latest for “Graceland” in 1986. In addition, he’s the guest of honor at the Grammys’ annual MusiCares dinner, so he’s certain to be on the minds of voters.

Likely winner: Paul Simon. Most deserving: Eminem.

Record of the Year

The nominees: Destiny’s Child’s “Say My Name,” Macy Gray’s “I Try,” Madonna’s “Music,” ’N Sync’s “Bye Bye Bye” and U2’s “Beautiful Day.”

Thomas O’Neil, author of the reference book “The Grammys,” believes in the best record/best song connection, and history is on his side. During the ‘90s, the winner in this category (for a recording of a single) was also nominated for best song (the songwriter’s award) nine times--and the song won both awards five times.

That means we can say bye bye bye to ‘N Sync and probably to Madonna, though the academy has warmed to her in recent years, and a win would make a timely wedding present. Neither is nominated in the best song category, while the other three tunes here are.

Destiny’s Child has gained industry respect for its string of hits, and “Say My Name” has a winning, self-affirming edge. But the group is probably in over its head against the legacy of U2 and the charm and talent of Macy Gray.

In some ways, U2 is the Paul Simon of this category--a much-respected past Grammy winner who is accepted by the traditional and progressive wings of the recording academy. “Beautiful Day” combines U2’s classic, guitar-driven sound with social observation, but it was only a modest hit, and there are stronger tracks on the group’s “All That You Can’t Leave Behind” album (which was released after the Grammys’ Sept. 30, 2000, eligibility deadline).

The problem for U2 is that Gray also draws support from both academy wings. She picked up a best new artist nomination last year, and “I Try” was among the biggest hits of 2000. Gray has also been a winning presence in various TV and club appearances. The final factor in her favor is that “I Try,” a slice of soul music in the tradition of Al Green, is probably viewed as a more likely standard than “Beautiful Day” and so is likely to win for best song.

Likely winner: Macy Gray. Most deserving: Gray.

New Artist

The nominees: Shelby Lynne, Brad Paisley, Papa Roach, Jill Scott, Sisqo.

Women usually win this category--seven times in the ‘90s, for instance, beaten only by Marc Cohn in 1991, Arrested Development in 1992 and Hootie & the Blowfish in 1995.

You don’t need the gender theory, however, to throw out Papa Roach, an undistinguished hard-rock attraction, or Paisley, a quality country artist who probably doesn’t have enough name recognition outside Nashville.

The women here are both strong choices, though neither might be well enough known among the traditional wing to score a victory. Scott is an R&B-based; singer with considerable talent and independence.

Lynne is more likely than Scott. Her “I Am Shelby Lynne” was one of the most acclaimed albums of 2000, and the nomination comes after years of struggling against record-company attempts to push her in a conventional commercial direction.

The hurdle is Sisqo. He’s the best-known artist on the list and he’s an appealing entertainer who performed on the Grammy show last year. If voters just go by name recognition, he’s the winner. The danger for him is that voters may look elsewhere if they also remember why he’s famous: “Thong Song.”

Likely winner: Sisqo. Most deserving: Shelby Lynne.

Producer of the Year

The nominees: Bill Bottrell, Dr. Dre, Nigel Godrich, Jimmy Jam & Terry Lewis, and Matt Serletic.

The award is supposed to acknowledge work released during the current eligibility year, and Dr. Dre deserves the award on that basis alone, for his own “Dr. Dre--2001” album and his work on the Eminem album. But he also has his history going for him, and that should cement the victory. He is the most respected and influential producer ever in rap. A win here wouldn’t just be a victory for him, but a step forward for all of hard-core hip-hop. It’s also a way to acknowledge Eminem without actually giving him the Grammy.

Likely winner: Dr. Dre. Most deserving: Dre.

Best Rock Album

The nominees: Bon Jovi’s “Crush,” Foo Fighters’ “There Is Nothing Left to Lose,” Matchbox Twenty’s “Mad Season,” No Doubt’s “Return of Saturn” and Rage Against the Machine’s “The Battle of Los Angeles.”

Matchbox Twenty and No Doubt are dangerous because they are so mainstream, but “The Battle of Los Angeles” is the standout here--a record of immense conviction and power.

Likely winner: Rage Against the Machine. Most deserving: Rage Against the Machine.

Contemporary Folk Album

The nominees: Billy Bragg & Wilco’s “Mermaid Avenue Vol. II,” Johnny Cash’s “American III: Solitary Man,” Steve Earle’s “Transcendental Blues,” Emmylou Harris’ “Red Dirt Girl” and John Hiatt’s “Crossing Muddy Waters.”

An excellent group of nominees. Harris turned in the most memorable album, but there’s no way to underestimate the industry’s respect for Cash, who has been given a Lifetime Achievement Award and nine Grammys in his career. Considering his influence on country, rock and folk music, he should have twice that many.

Likely winner: Johnny Cash. Most deserving: Emmylou Harris. *

*

Robert Hilburn, the Times pop music critic, can be reached at robert.hilburn@latimes.com.