Scramble to Pull Off a Diplomatic Miracle Begins

In the unlikely event that there really is a last-gasp breakthrough in the Mideast peace process, the turning point may be traced to a moment Tuesday evening when President Clinton took a break to attend a reception for Sen.-elect Hillary Rodham Clinton.

As he headed off to the tony 701 Club, Clinton advised a reluctant Palestinian Authority President Yasser Arafat to take the time to think about the alternative if he didn’t accept the outline of a U.S. peace plan--at what could be the leaders’ final meeting.

When the two men and their note-takers gathered in the library of the Clintons’ residential quarters late Tuesday night, Arafat gave the president his tentative and qualified--some aides say heavily qualified--consent to the ideas in the U.S. plan. He confirmed his consent in a telephone call to the White House on Wednesday morning.

Arafat’s reply has set in motion a scramble to pull off a diplomatic miracle: ending more than 50 years of turmoil in the world’s most volatile region in a mere 17 days, before Clinton leaves office Jan. 20.

Weary White House officials are deeply skeptical that they can beat the enormous odds stacked against them, including increasingly polarized public opinion in both Israel and the Palestinian territories and violence that has left more than 350 people dead over the past three months.

Senior administration officials cautioned Wednesday that they must hold more preliminary discussions with both sides before launching intensive direct talks with Arafat and caretaker Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Barak.

“We’re not going to resume negotiations, we’re not going to have a summit, unless we are confident of success,” White House spokesman P.J. Crowley said.

Added a well-placed U.S. official: “We’ve only taken one step. Now we have to look more closely and see if the reservations both sides have are reconcilable. We have a lot of work to do.”

This Time the Catalyst Wasn’t White House

Yet the sequence of events Tuesday underscores an important shift in the long-standing drama. In stark contrast to earlier rounds of the U.S.-brokered peace process, Clinton wasn’t the primary spark behind this almost desperate effort to negotiate a final settlement between Israel and the Palestinians.

Perhaps the most telling aspect of the current effort is that the energy is coming from the Israeli and Palestinian players, notably Arafat, whose reluctance to make costly compromises has been widely blamed for the deadlock since the failed Camp David summit in July.

“The president is as engaged as ever, but it’s clear that the two sides are the ones who asked for his involvement, particularly Arafat,” said a senior administration official who requested anonymity. Clinton “is not reluctant, but he’s not pushing,” the official said.

In fact, Arafat initially pressed for the Tuesday meeting, which the president was wary of hosting, U.S. officials said. Clinton’s concerns included the public perception that he was scrambling to pull together a peace deal as the crowning touch of his presidential legacy.

Clinton also had grave doubts about the feasibility of concluding all the intricate details of an accord given the limited time available.

The deadline that concerns Arafat most is not Clinton’s departure Jan. 20, but Israel’s election of a new prime minister Feb. 6, U.S. officials said. Polls indicate that the election may be won by hard-liner Ariel Sharon, who has made it clear that he will be far less inclined than Barak to compromise with the Palestinians.

“It would be hard to imagine that a new U.S. team could come in [after Clinton’s departure] and in 15 days or so . . . hold talks that would lead to a final settlement. It doesn’t make sense. So Arafat now realizes that the whole landscape is about to change on both sides,” the senior administration official said. “He has a huge interest in keeping the current process going.”

Before leaving for the airport Wednesday morning, Arafat offered a rare public indication of his interest in trying again to reach agreement. “This step is important to move the peace process forward,” he told reporters.

Crucial to any progress, U.S. officials say, are two potential developments in which Arafat would play a dominant role: ending the violence in the region and persuading the wider Arab world to accept the agreement. Both would be important to winning Israeli support for the plan by demonstrating that the Palestinians are committed to peace. Answers to both issues will be clear over the next three or four days, the officials added.

Arafat is scheduled to meet today with Arab foreign ministers in Cairo to brief them on the U.S. framework proposals and his own position. American officials are hopeful that the response will be less hostile than the Arab leaders’ reaction to the Camp David process, in part because the U.S. has also been briefing key Arab governments this time around.

“These ideas put forward by the president, unlike Camp David, have produced positive feelings among Arab leaders,” the senior official said.

Militia Leader Says Uprising Will Go On

Ending the violence will be more difficult, U.S. officials say.

“Unfortunately, the very factors that are making both sides recognize the growing importance of peace are also the factors that are keeping them apart,” the senior official said.

Hussein Sheik, a militia leader in Arafat’s Fatah faction of the Palestine Liberation Organization, said the Palestinians “will never accept” the American ideas. Even the resumption of serious negotiations, he said, would “not mean stopping the intifada,” or uprising.

“I think what the president [Arafat] wants to show is a positive position in his abilities to reach a peace deal,” Sheik said.

U.S. officials said Clinton is prepared to engage in round-the-clock negotiations.

But in light of the obstacles, Clinton has no illusions about the prospects for success, the senior official said. “He’s intimately familiar with the issues--and the difficulties.”