THE MATCHUPS

STARTERS: Shaquille O’Neal and Kobe Bryant have combined to average 61.3 points in the playoffs, O’Neal shooting 55.0% and Bryant shooting 47.6%. Derek Fisher has maintained his sudden scoring knack, averaging 13.7 points. He’s also committed only four turnovers in 261 playoff minutes, presenting a sound, if unspectacular, backcourt presence. Danny Ferry as a defensive responsibility should allow Rick Fox to reassert himself offensively. Tim Duncan and David Robinson comprise the most formidable inside duo in the league, but O’Neal can handle Robinson and Horace Grant is strong enough to make a handful of stops per game on Duncan. Edge: Lakers.

BENCH: Phil Jackson hasn’t gone much beyond Robert Horry and Brian Shaw in his rotation, saddling his starters with a lot of extra minutes. Bryant, O’Neal, Fisher and Fox have averaged at least 37 minutes. The Spurs are deeper, and that’s before Derek Anderson returns from his separated shoulder. Forward Malik Rose gives them minutes on O’Neal and backup point guard Avery Johnson has committed only five turnovers in nine games. Sean Elliott has made 42.1% of his three-pointers. Edge: Spurs.

OFFENSE: The Lakers averaged 100.6 points per game in the regular season and cranked that up to 105.3 in seven playoff games. Sacramento took away the Laker perimeter players in the first two games of the conference semifinals, and O’Neal averaged 43.5 points. So convinced, the Kings were torched for 42 points per game in the second half of the series by Bryant. The Spurs will have to choose too. Duncan (27.0), Robinson (17.8) and Antonio Daniels (15.0) accounted for much of San Antonio’s offense in five conference semifinal games against Dallas. Edge: Lakers.

DEFENSE: San Antonio is first a defensive team, limiting its opponents to 88.4 points and a 41.9% shooting in the regular season. The Spurs have tightened more in the playoffs, holding Dallas to 86.8 points and 38.5% shooting in a five-game victory. Phil Jackson called Robinson the best defensive center in the modern era and Duncan is a perennial All-Defensive first-team player. Jackson also has accused the Spurs of playing a zone, and that will be a recurring theme. The Lakers had the worst statistical defense of any team that qualified for the playoffs. They’ve been better since, holding Portland and Sacramento to 93.7 points per game. Edge: Spurs.

COACHING: Spurs’ Gregg Popovich will have to choose the time and place to bring back Anderson, who separated his right shoulder in Game 1 against the Mavericks. A regular starter before his injury, Anderson had his problems guarding Bryant when he was in perfect health. Jackson has similar issues with Ron Harper, who returned from knee surgery to play nine minutes against the Kings. Jackson wins if he gets a handful of illegal defense calls, particularly early in the series. Popovich wins if he gets some offensive foul calls against O’Neal. Edge: Lakers.

KEY TO THE SERIES: The critical matchups are Grant on Duncan, Robinson on O’Neal and Daniels on Bryant. Grant can’t handle Duncan without help from O’Neal, who’ll need to stay out of foul trouble to aggressively thwart Duncan. The Spurs have no answer for Bryant, who averaged 37.7 points in three games against them. Anderson, when healthy, and Elliott, on bum knees, rotated giving up points. That won’t change, unless O’Neal is so aggressive Bryant defers his usual shot attempts. In two road games against the Spurs, O’Neal averaged 17.5 points. In two home games, he averaged 34.5 points. The pick: Lakers, 4-3.