Somalia Is More Notion Than Nation

Somalia’s first central government in a decade is struggling to assert its authority, sparking fears that the country could once again disintegrate into the anarchy it witnessed in the early 1990s.

There are no properly functioning ministries. With government offices in ruins, most Cabinet ministers conduct their daily business in heavily guarded homes or hotel rooms. One member of parliament has been assassinated since the administration was installed in August, and two others recently survived attacks in which at least a dozen aides and bodyguards were killed.

Mogadishu’s airport and seaport remain inactive and outside government control. Clan-based faction leaders backed by gun-toting thugs keep the capital city divided into fiefdoms.

Secessionist administrations rule the north. Frequent battles, politically motivated killings and periodic kidnappings of foreigners punctuate the insecurity.

Analysts say that establishing a legitimate government is crucial to ensuring Somalia’s renewed claim to nationhood and for preventing regional insecurity.

“Unless there is a stronger authority to take a grip of the situation, there will be further disintegration,” said Abdirahman Raghe, deputy director of the War-Torn Societies Project, Somalia Program, an organization that fosters peace initiatives. “There needs to be responsible political leadership; otherwise, the whole region will suffer.”

The so-called transitional national government, which is to pave the way for elections and a fully functioning administration, was chosen for a three-year term last year by a conference that included elders and representatives of minorities and civil groups. Obstacles facing President Abdiqassim Salad Hassan and Prime Minister Ali Khalifa Galaydh are considerable.

Most of the country is a shambles. Roads, buildings and telephone lines have been destroyed. There is no tax system, and no money in the treasury. The national currency is printed at will by a consortium of local businessmen with overseas ties.

“What you’re dealing with here is the rebuilding of an extremely fragmented society, where there is no assumption of any kind of structure,” said Bernard Harborne, a Nairobi-based U.N. specialist on Somalia. “They are coming in at year zero.”

The president and prime minister have spent much time soliciting financial support from allies, primarily in the Arab world. Some money has been pledged; little has been received. The government has been left to depend on wealthy businessmen, many of whom cheer the return of a national administration despite the profits they have reaped without having to pay taxes or obey government regulations.

Although Western governments have welcomed the formation of Somalia’s new administration, none is rushing to help.

“They see it as an investment risk,” said an international relief worker who spoke on condition of anonymity. “The international community was instrumental in installing the [transitional government]. But once it moved into Mogadishu, it was like hands off--until you’ve reached a certain marker. And it’s as though they keep moving the goal post.”

Others attribute the lack of Western support to “Somalia fatigue.” A U.N. humanitarian task force that included thousands of Americans withdrew ignominiously in the early 1990s, having failed to quell clan fighting or to start rebuilding the nation.

“The scars are still very much there,” said Harborne, the U.N. official. He also noted that it was unlikely the West would throw its weight behind the government before it had proved its legitimacy to its own people.

Analysts say the government might have fumbled a golden opportunity during its early days.

“Instead of immediately trying to address the situation inside the country, they put a lot of emphasis on trying to get external recognition,” said Johan Svensson, regional representative for the nongovernmental Life and Peace Institute, Horn of Africa Program, which is based in Nairobi. “There is a limited time of a honeymoon, where the government has to assert itself as legitimate in the eyes of the people.”

The political elite remains uncertain of its role in the new order. Somaliland, a former British protectorate and breakaway republic in the country’s northwest, has ruled out reunification and will hold a referendum on a new constitution May 31. Officials of the central government warn that the region’s independence drive might lead to destabilization and violence.

Neighboring Puntland also has refused to recognize central authority. Aid workers said insecurity was compounded by humanitarian concerns. In some areas, a ban on livestock export, triggered by fears of an outbreak of Rift Valley fever, is crippling the economy.

Still more crucial is the administration’s struggle with militias in the capital and elsewhere that have carved profitable spheres of influence out of the chaos. Heavy factional fighting last weekend killed at least 50 people.

Ali, the prime minister, has said the government would pursue “nonviolence and peaceful, constructive dialogue.” Although critics see the government’s reluctance to fight as a sign of weakness, he said he views it as a demonstration of goodwill and integrity.

Central government officials claim they have disarmed about 11,000 militiamen in Mogadishu and are training them to join the army and police force. Although law enforcement officers manning 14 posts throughout the city have won the respect of average citizens, some armed factions are trying to thwart attempts to successfully police the capital.

Attempts to buy out the opposition have failed because of the small amount of money the government is able to offer.

“It’s only with un-earmarked dollars in a suitcase that they can begin to tempt them into some kind of an alliance,” Harborne said. “They’ve got to have cash to persuade.”

The central government has accused neighboring Ethiopia of sponsoring its foes. Western diplomats and international relief officials say allegations of Ethiopian support of a breakaway administration in southwestern Somalia are valid.

Despite the challenges, many Somalia watchers express confidence that an overwhelming desire by average people for normality will ultimately silence the guns.

“The people of Somalia are now ready for peace and for any sort of proper government,” Raghe said. “They are war weary.”