Surprise King Makers

Most political observers have written off the African American mayoral vote as overwhelmingly solid for City Atty. James K. Hahn. This amid declarations that black political power in Los Angeles is waning. In truth, black voters do not form a bloc for Hahn. More accurately, they form a highly mobilized swing group that could determine the outcome of the June 5 runoff.

Contrary to public perceptions, the L.A. mayoral race has divided black community life down to the family level. L.A. County Supervisor Yvonne Brathewaite Burke is a prominent supporter of City Attorney James K. Hahn. Her husband, L.A. Marathon president William A. Burke, backs Antonio Villaraigosa.

The division carries over into black religious and political communities. The Rev. William S. Epps of Second Baptist Church is plainly for Hahn, but one of the church’s most politically active ministers, the Rev. William Campbell, is a Villaraigosa booster. First African Methodist Episcopal Pastor Cecil “Chip” Murray is a longtime Hahn backer, while AME Bishop John Bryant endorses Villaraigosa. Rep. Maxine Waters is a Hahn supporter, but the entire L.A.-based Black Caucus in the state Assembly has lined up behind Villaraigosa.

These differences are unusual and significant in a community that consistently delivers 80% of its votes to liberal Democratic candidates. But there is no denying them. A little-known analysis of the April 10 primary vote shows that in heavily African American precincts, Hahn received, on average, 62% of the vote, Villaraigosa got 26% and the remaining votes were spread among the other candidates. That hardly constitutes the historical a black bloc vote of 80%-90%,for Hahn, a reality underscored by the precincts’ voting history in the mayoral elections in 1993 and 1997. Candidates Mike Woo and Tom Hayden got 80% of the votes.

The variance in black voting patterns between the “90s mayoral contests and the April primary highlights the pivotal role that African American voters can play in the runoffelection. Richard Riordan was the clear front-runner in both 1993 and 1997. African American votes were not numerous enough to make a difference. By contrast, the Hahn-Villaraigosa mayoral race is too close to call, and black votes could swing the outcome one way or the another.

Many political observers believe that undecided moderate and conservative Valley voters will decide the election because it is thought that Hahn has the black vote sewn up, while Villaraigosa has a lock on Latino support. The latest KABC poll has Hahn capturing 74% of black votesblackd, Villaraigosa 60% of Latino votess. But a large-scale, targeted analysis by the Villaraigosa campaign conflicts with such poll numbers, which serve as a basis for the prediction that Valley voters will determine who the next mayor will be. The surprise is not that African American support for Villaraigosa is small, but that tsheir suupport for Hahn is much smaller than media polls suggest.

In the weeks leading up to the April primary, 156 Villaraigosa campaigners surveyed 15,000 African American voters in three councilmanic districts by phone or face-to-face contact. They discovered that Hahn’s percentage of support in the districts was smaller than expected, and that the core of support for Villaraigosa was surprisingly strong. After the primary, strategists analyzed the vote on three levels: in the council districts, in 311 precincts and in 75 targeted precincts of high-propensity African American voters. The actual votes showed that support for both candidates remained constant.

Villaraigosa, to be sure, faces an uphill struggle for African American votes. The Hahn name commands great loyalty in the black community, and some black voters worry that a Latino mayor will leave them out of the loop when appointments are made and policies implemented. Also, despite serving as co-chair of the Black-Latino Roundtable during the 1980s and his decades-long association with coalition builders such as AGENDA executive director Anthony Thigpenn and Community Coalition head Karen Bass, Villaraigosa remains an unknown to many African Americans.

Still, Villaraigosa’s ties to the African American community extend to his days in high school when he was involved with the Black Students Union. The black vote for Villaraigosa, says former Rep. Mervyn Dymally, “is an investment in the future.” Dymally cites Villaraigosa’s support for urban-park bonds, equity for urban school financing and healthy-family legislation as proof for his assertion.

Hahn’s black supporters have many reasons to stick with their candidate, among them, the unmatched family legacy--”We know him,” say many--and his managerial experience in the city bureaucracy. He is widely regarded as “closer to the people,” a reputation that owes much to his father’s legendary attention to the details of life, like potholes and stop signs. Hahn’s role in negotiating a consent decree with the U.S. Justice Department to reform the Los Angeles Police Department assures supporters that, in the words of businesswoman Marsha Brown, he is “our caretaker of justice.” For Brown and other blacks, the issue is, “Who’s going to be the best person for manager” of the city?

To win the mayoral election, Villaraigosa must increase his share of the black vote to 30%-40%, while Hahn must attract that proverbial 80%-90% of African Americans. Because of voter-mobilization efforts begun during the 2000 elections, African American turnout in the county is up. In 370 precincts targeted by the African American Voter Registration, Education and Participation Project, turnout rose by 6%, compared with a 2% rise for all voters countywide. Getting voters to the polls is key to both mayoral candidates, but increasing turnout is especially important in the hundreds of precincts that are home to a majority of black voters.

That the African American vote may decide who L.A.’s next mayor will be is a tad ironic, considering all the pronouncements of the demise of black power following the 2000 census. Blacks make up an increasingly smaller percentage of the city’s population, yet they show high rates of civic participation and voter registration. They also are highly successful coalition builders. What few realize is that L.A.’s African American population has been proportionately smaller than that of whites and Latinos since the 1930s. For black Angelenos, then, numbers are not--, and have never been--, the whole story. Rather, they African Americans have leveraged their numbers to build coalitions that of interest that will respond to their agenda.

The message in the current contest for mayor is clear. Whoever wins will have African American voters to thank. This dynamic should inspire black voters to go to the polls on June 5th in record numbers. the message in the current contest for mayor is clear. Whoever wins will have African American voters to thank.